Trump Says U.S. Has “Complete Control” Of Strait Of Hormuz
- Trump said “a lot of oil” is coming out and that the Iran situation is currently “so good,” while leaving the door open to reopening negotiations with Iran “at some point.”
- Trump reiterated that Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon, saying the U.S. “is not gonna let them use it.”
- He claimed the U.S. has “complete control” of the Strait of Hormuz, adding that countries are finding alternatives through Texas, Alaska and Louisiana, with buyers coming to the U.S. for oil.
- On North Korea, Trump said he has a good relationship with Kim Jong Un, claimed Kim has 57 nuclear weapons, and said he expects to meet Kim later this year.
RBI sees inflation easing from its peak, but oil remains a key risk.
- RBI officials said inflation is expected to decline from its highest point in Q3, while crude oil prices remain vulnerable to sudden geopolitical shocks.
- The RBI expects oil to average around $90 a barrel this year, with geopolitical tensions causing sharp and unpredictable price moves.
- Officials also said price pressures are mainly coming from volatile food and fuel prices, which are feeding into higher service costs.
- RBI said keeping policy rates on pause preserves flexibility on timing and does not signal a prolonged delay.
Iran Says U.S. Seeking Face-Saving Withdrawal From Region
- Iran Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf said regional developments make clear “who is winning,” claiming U.S. forces are seeking a face-saving withdrawal from the region.
- Ghalibaf said the Israeli regime has no future in the region and its ambitions will not be realized, while accusing Israel of actions that have turned it into an enemy of humanity.
- Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Turkey and Pakistan are reportedly set to hold a four-party foreign ministers’ meeting in Istanbul later this month, according to Saudi outlet Hadaath.
- The KOSPI plunged 5.80% to 6,471.17 after touching 6,400.81 intraday.
- Foreign investors sold KRW3.5036 trillion and institutions sold KRW1.3244 trillion, taking combined outflows to KRW4.8 trillion, or about $3.5 billion. Retail investors bought KRW4.6367 trillion.
- Samsung Electronics fell more than 7% and SK Hynix dropped over 9%.
- The US 30 year Treasury yield climbed to 5.33%, its highest since 2007, hurting risk appetite and raising concerns over AI capex, oil prices and inflation.
India Becomes Asia’s Most-Unloved Equity Market, BofA Survey Shows
- A BofA fund-manager survey shows India has replaced Indonesia as Asia’s most-unloved equity market, reflecting rising investor caution.
- 32% of fund managers are net underweight India, citing high valuations, lack of reforms, weak economic growth and limited AI exposure.
- India is also among the worst-performing markets globally this year, with lack of clear AI exposure identified as the biggest concern.
- Sentiment toward Indonesia improved, with 27% of managers net underweight, down from 32% in July.
PM CARES Fund corpus hits a record ₹8,452 crore.
- The fund’s corpus rose from ₹7,173 crore in March 2024 to ₹8,452 crore by March 2025, with 93% or ₹7,846.65 crore held in fixed deposits.
- The fund spent just ₹87.85 lakh during FY25, around 0.01% of its total corpus.
- Fixed deposit interest generated ₹469.38 crore during the year, almost matching the ₹479.05 crore received in domestic donations.
- Domestic donations fell 30% to ₹479 crore from ₹681.81 crore, while foreign donations declined 18% to ₹92.8 lakh.
Asian Bond Inflows Fall To 4-Month Low As Oil Shock Hits Sentiment
- Foreign inflows into local-currency bonds across India, Indonesia, Malaysia, South Korea and Thailand fell to a four-month low in July.
- Net foreign purchases totaled just $2.03 billion, the lowest since March, as the Middle East conflict and higher oil prices raised concerns over inflation and growth across energy-sensitive Asian economies.
- Despite the regional slowdown, emerging-market debt attracted $26.7 billion in July, according to IIF data, supported by high yields, improving fundamentals and diversification demand.
- EM equities, however, recorded $7.8 billion of outflows as investors turned more cautious on risk assets.
🔴 Breaking
The Financial Times, citing people familiar with the matter, reported that Iran may consider targeting military assets in Europe as part of its strike plans if President Trump escalates the conflict.
Investors are rotating within US tech, with semiconductors losing favour.
- JPMorgan data shows QQQ attracted about $3.0 billion last week, while Nasdaq 100 futures saw roughly $7.5 billion of net buying.
- At the same time, broad tech ETFs saw $3.4 billion of outflows, while semiconductor ETFs SOXL, SMH and SOXX together lost about $3.9 billion.
- The four week split is even bigger. QQQ has attracted $15.4 billion, while SOXX has seen $5.6 billion of outflows.
- Investors are keeping exposure to large cap Nasdaq names while cutting semiconductor positions, as crowded AI trades and strong previous gains encourage de risking.
Asian Chip Stocks Slide Up To 6.8% As AI Spending Concerns Rise
- South Korea’s KOSPI fell as much as 6.8% intraday, while an Asian semiconductor index dropped more than 2%, tracking selloffs in U.S. semiconductor and AI stocks.
- Rising bond yields, inflation concerns and higher government debt are raising fears of higher borrowing costs, while the ongoing Iran conflict is adding geopolitical risk.
- Fibonacci Asset Management said the long-term AI outlook remains intact, but higher rates and geopolitical risks are reducing investors’ willingness to pay high valuations. Profit-taking after an “exceptionally strong rally” also contributed.
- Meanwhile, Anthropic’s ARR reached $65 billion in July 2026, up from $47 billion in May and $9 billion at end-2025, according to Goldman Sachs.
- ARR is still growing around 18% MoM, but Goldman says investors are increasingly focused on whether growth can accelerate or slow as the revenue base expands.
US stocks are sitting in an unusually calm volatility setup.
- Goldman Sachs’ TMT trading desk estimates weekly implied equity volatility at just 89bp, near a five year low, with its panic reading at 0.36 out of 10.
- Option market makers are holding around $15 billion in positive gamma hedges, near the 99th percentile. This encourages dealers to sell into rallies and buy into dips, limiting short term moves.
- Meanwhile, 96% of S&P 500 companies are in open buyback windows, with announced authorizations above $1 trillion.
- Rising long term yields and higher oil remain risks. If dealer gamma and buybacks weaken, the ultra low volatility environment could quickly become more sensitive to larger price moves.
🔴 Breaking
Trump Says No Iran Talks; Qatar Pushes For Hormuz Reopening
- Trump said there are no negotiations or talks with Iran ongoing or scheduled. He claimed the U.S. naval blockade remains fully effective, the Strait of Hormuz is open and operating normally, and all sea mines have been removed or detonated.
- Qatar Foreign Ministry spokesman Majid Ansari said Doha is pushing for a U.S.-Iran ceasefire, reopening of Hormuz and freedom of navigation, while urging both sides to return to negotiations.
- Qatar, with Pakistan, helped mediate the U.S.-Iran MoU and is pressing for its implementation. Ansari said ceasefire breaches have prevented full implementation and that Qatar is awaiting an Oman-Iran Strait agreement as a potential catalyst for renewed talks.
- Qatar also denied Iran’s claim that three Iranian pilots were detained, saying Iranian military aircraft violated Qatari airspace and that one pilot’s remains were recovered after a search operation.
Google To Shift Pixel Production To India And Vietnam From 2027
- Google has told suppliers it plans to produce all Pixel smartphones, smartwatches and earbuds outside China from 2027, according to Nikkei Asia.
- Google will shift manufacturing to India and Vietnam, making it the second major smartphone brand after Samsung to exit China for device production.
- Successful production of high-end Pixel phones in Vietnam this year has given Google confidence to meet the 2027 target.
- Google expects Pixel shipments to rise 8%–10% this year, despite surging memory-chip costs that have forced rivals to cut forecasts.
US net interest payments are hitting record levels.
- Net interest is projected at 3.3% of GDP in FY2026, up from around 3.1% to 3.2% in FY2025.
- The cost of servicing US debt is already larger than defense spending, putting increasing pressure on government finances and other spending priorities.
- Under current policy, CBO projections show net interest could rise to 4.6% of GDP by 2036.
- The rising burden highlights how higher interest rates and a larger debt pile are increasingly constraining US fiscal policy.
Global Bond Yields Surge As Investors Fear Higher Rates
- Long-term bonds are facing growing investor anxiety as inflation, rising government debt and a debt-fuelled AI boom drive sovereign yields higher worldwide.
- The U.S. 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.321%, its highest since mid-2007. French borrowing costs reached levels not seen since 2008, German yields neared 2011 highs, UK yields approached 6%, while Japanese long-term yields moved near record highs.
- The rise reflects concerns over persistent inflation, higher government spending, geopolitical fragmentation and weaker structural demand for sovereign debt.
- AXA IM CIO Chris Iggo said a sudden deterioration in economic data or an external shock may be needed to materially improve the outlook for long-duration bonds.
🔴 Breaking
Iran Says It “Won War And Diplomacy” As U.S. Objectives Failed
- Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi said several foreign ministers privately told him Iran had “won the war and diplomacy.”
- Araghchi said Iran rejected an immediate ceasefire, continued fighting until the other side accepted negotiations on Iran’s terms, and ultimately agreed to a ceasefire after the opponent accepted Iran’s counterproposal.
- He said several ambassadors told him the MoU largely favored Iran, but the opponent began violating it within two weeks. Araghchi identified Israel as the main opponent and obstacle to implementing the agreement.
- Araghchi said Washington suffered four failures: forcing Iran’s unconditional surrender, achieving regime change, dividing Iran and arming groups inside Iran and its western provinces.
RBI Asks Rating Agencies Not To Name It In Bank Deposit Ratings
- RBI has reportedly told credit rating agencies to stop mentioning “RBI as regulator” in reports rating bank deposits, according to ET.
- The move comes amid concerns that a sudden downgrade could trigger a flight of deposits and destabilise banks. Rating agencies have approached SEBI for guidance.
- CRAs will continue rating bank loans, deposits and bonds, but must identify the regulator overseeing each rated instrument under SEBI rules introduced in February 2026.
- DICGC currently insures bank deposits up to ₹5 lakh per depositor per bank, while a proposal to raise the limit to ₹7.5 lakh is awaiting approval.
Foreign Holdings Of U.S. Treasuries Fall $72 Billion In June
- Foreign holdings of U.S. Treasuries fell to $9.299 trillion in June from $9.371 trillion in May, marking about $72 billion in net foreign selling. Holdings remain 2.3% higher YoY.
- Japan remained the largest foreign holder but cut its holdings 2.3% to $1.116 trillion, well below its $1.325 trillion November 2021 peak. China and some custody centres were also net sellers, while Canada, Belgium and Switzerland bought.
- Foreign investors were net sellers of $56 billion over the past 3 months but net buyers of $205 billion over 12 months. Total U.S. inflows, including equities, reached $173 billion in June.
- ING said the unresolved U.S.-Iran truce and heavy corporate issuance keep the Treasury market bias bearish, potentially pushing yields higher. In Europe, ECB balance-sheet runoff is tightening liquidity and reinforcing a bearish outlook for German Bunds.
Trump’s approval rating has fallen to a second term low.
- A Reuters Ipsos poll on August 17 found 33% of US adults approve of Trump’s performance, while 64% disapprove.
- The 33% approval rating is down from 35% earlier this month and matches his previous term low from December 2017.
- About 80% of respondents expect fighting between the US and Iran to continue for a long time.
