Live News Blog

Trump Administration Imposes Sanctions on International Criminal Court

• The Trump administration announced new sanctions targeting the International Criminal Court (ICC), expanding earlier measures against several prosecutors and judges.
• US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Washington would block transactions with the court, cut off its resources and seek to render it inoperable.
• The measures could extend to companies providing services to the ICC, potentially disrupting its operations and straining US ties with European allies.
• The US Treasury subsequently issued general licences permitting certain telecom, enterprise software and pension related transactions involving the court.

UKMTO Records 122 Vessel Security Incidents Linked to US Iran Conflict in 2026

• UK Maritime Trade Operations reported 122 vessel security incidents linked to the US Iran conflict within its monitoring area so far this year.
• The Red Sea recorded 6 attacks on merchant vessels, alongside 41 piracy related incidents.
• UKMTO has issued 133 maritime security warnings and 18 advisories so far this year.
• Security around the Strait of Hormuz and adjacent waters remains severe, with vessels urged to maintain heightened vigilance and report suspicious activity.

Iran Revising US Proposal, Putin Offers Help to Ease Middle East Tensions

• Russian President Vladimir Putin said the Middle East conflict is not Iran’s fault and that Tehran is working to end the fighting.
• Putin met Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian in Turkmenistan on October 8 and said Russia is ready to help ease regional tensions.
• Pezeshkian said Iran is revising a new US proposal and plans to arrange a meeting with American officials through mediators once the revisions are complete.
• The developments signal a possible path toward renewed diplomatic talks, although no meeting has been confirmed.

Trump Says US Iran Talks Productive, No Attack Before November 3

• Trump said the US is holding productive talks with Iran and will not attack the country before the November 3 midterm elections.
• He said the blockade on Iran will remain fully in place and claimed 22 million barrels crossed the Strait of Hormuz last night, with none from or bound for Iran.
• Trump said Iran will not have nuclear weapons and described the country as economically and militarily weak.
• WTI crude fell more than $1 to $90.24 a barrel, while Brent declined to $102.34.

India Imposes 3% Tax on Gold, Silver and Platinum Imports Through Banks

• India has withdrawn the tax exemption on gold, silver and platinum imported by banks and state nominated agencies.
• The shipments will now face a 3% Integrated Goods and Services Tax, raising costs for major channels supplying India’s bullion market.
• Revenue Secretary Arvind Shrivastava said the exemption was not extended beyond March 31.
• The move puts gold and silver imports through banks on the same tax footing as other import routes.

US Suspends Infosys, Tata, Wipro, HCL and Microsoft From PERM Program

• The US Labor Department suspended major IT firms including Cognizant, Infosys, Tata, Wipro, HCL, Capgemini, Microsoft and Adobe from the Permanent Labor Certification program.
• Labor Secretary Keith Sonderling said the companies will not be allowed to file new PERM applications or have pending applications processed during the suspension.
• Vice President JD Vance accused Microsoft of abusing the H 1B system and replacing US workers with foreign labor.
• The administration is also investigating 9 universities over alleged misuse of visa programs, intensifying its crackdown on foreign worker and student immigration pathways.

Oil Jumps 3% as Houthi Attacks Hit Supply, Iran and Oman Agree Hormuz Security Corridor

• Oil rose more than 3% as Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia, a separate Persian Gulf tanker incident and Hurricane Isaias expanded supply disruptions.
• About 511,619 barrels per day of US Gulf of Mexico oil output, or 25.08%, was shut in by Wednesday, with 8 production platforms and 2 drilling rigs evacuated.
• Around 16.37% of regional natural gas output was also shut in as Isaias strengthened into a hurricane.
• Iran and Oman meanwhile agreed coordinates for a security corridor in the Strait of Hormuz, with Tehran saying it will convey responses to US proposals through intermediaries.

India’s 1 Year Inflation Expectations Rise to 10% as RBI Hikes Rate to 5.5%

• Median household inflation expectations for the next year rose to 10.0% from 9.4%, while 3 month expectations climbed to 9.9%, according to the RBI.
• The survey was released as the Monetary Policy Committee unanimously raised the repo rate by 25 bps to 5.5% and shifted its stance to “calibrated tightening.”
• RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra said rate cuts are off the table in the near term.
• Food and fuel costs are driving higher household price expectations, while the rupee weakened against the dollar after the rate hike.

Houthis Claim Strikes on Riyadh Airport, Warn International Airlines

• Houthi militants claimed they launched multiple ballistic missile strikes on Saudi military positions and reinforcements, causing casualties and fires at weapons depots.
• The group claimed strikes also hit assembly points near Bab al Mandeb, Suqayya and Ras al Ar, with dozens of casualties.
• The Houthis further claimed they struck Riyadh’s King Khalid International Airport.
• The group issued a warning to international airlines, saying continued operations in Saudi airspace, excluding Mecca and Medina, could face serious consequences.

Pentagon Prepares for Possible Large Scale Strikes on Iran Before Midterms

• The Pentagon has instructed US Central Command to prepare for a possible resumption of large scale operations against Iran, Axios reported. No timing has been set and Trump has not made a final decision.
• US and Israeli officials said strikes could occur before the November 3 US midterm elections, potentially targeting Iranian nuclear, energy and infrastructure sites.
• The Atlantic reported the administration is also focused on the impact of the conflict on gas prices and the political timeline, but those assessments are attributed to the publication.
• Separately, US CENTCOM disputed Iran’s claim of controlling Hormuz, saying commercial traffic and energy shipments, including about 20 million barrels of crude, continue through the Strait.
• Trump said US envoy Witkoff is working to reach an agreement with Iran and has made “very good progress.”
• Trump said Iran is willing to offer any terms to prevent further escalation, but an agreement is “not an option I really want.”

Iran Says 7 Day Hormuz Plan Submitted as US Demands Nuclear Concessions

• Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Tehran used the UN General Assembly to present an “innovative” seven day plan aimed at restoring security and reopening the Strait of Hormuz.
• Araghchi said Iran has submitted its conditions to mediators in a precise and feasible plan and remains committed to diplomacy while defending its national interests.
• Saudi media outlet Alhadath, citing senior sources, reported Washington has told Iran it will not make concessions until Tehran limits its nuclear capabilities.
• The same report said mediation efforts have stalled, while Washington no longer considers Hormuz a priority and believes Iran has lost control of the waterway. These claims were attributed to the Saudi outlet and have not been independently confirme

Iran Says Hormuz Remains Closed, Warns It Could Block More Shipping Routes

• President Masoud Pezeshkian said Iran is in an “all out war” and will continue to resist, while relying primarily on domestic capabilities and strengthening national unity.
• An IRGC adviser said Iran’s armed forces have complete control over the Strait of Hormuz and that it will remain closed until Tehran’s demands are met.
• Iranian media also quoted the adviser as saying several shipping routes created by “aggressors” could soon be blocked.
• An Iranian military spokesman reiterated a doctrine of pre emptive strikes against perceived imminent threats, while an IRGC adviser said weapon ranges could be increased if authorised by Iran’s leadership.

Over 40% of India’s Coal Power Capacity Has 4 Days of Stock or Less

• Around 69 coal fired power plants, representing more than 40% of India’s coal fired capacity, had coal stocks for four days or less as of October 4.
• Inventories are near a five year low as unusually high October temperatures keep cooling, irrigation and industrial power demand elevated.
• Heavy rains have disrupted coal production, while rail bottlenecks are slowing deliveries and forcing plants to draw down on site stocks.
• Low inventories raise the risk of widespread power outages if supply disruptions persist.
• Source: Bloomberg.

RBI Raises Repo Rate 25 Bps to 5.50%, Signals No Near Term Cut

• The RBI’s Monetary Policy Committee unanimously raised the key policy rate by 25 bps to 5.50% from 5.25%, in line with expectations.
• RBI Governor said India’s economy remains strong with broad based momentum, but inflation expectations are showing signs of rising.
• The RBI said global financial markets are tense and fragile as the West Asia conflict drives global oil prices higher and pushes inflation risks up.
• The Governor said future policy action will depend on real GDP growth and inflation, while the rupee was little changed near 96.38 per dollar after the decision.

Saudi East West Oil Pipeline Restored to 5.8 Million Bpd

• Saudi Energy Minister Abdulaziz bin Salman said flows through the East West oil pipeline reached about 5.8 million barrels per day as of Tuesday morning.
• The pipeline was restored within five to six days after being shut following a September 10 drone attack from the direction of Iraq.
• The pipeline has a maximum capacity of around 7 million bpd, with roughly 4.5 million bpd available for export through Yanbu on the Red Sea.
• The route connects Saudi Arabia’s eastern oilfields to Yanbu, providing a key alternative for crude exports that bypasses the Strait of Hormuz.

Trump Says Iran War Will End “Very Soon,” Claims US Is Winning

• US President Donald Trump said the war with Iran will be over “very soon,” while dismissing elevated fuel prices as temporary and “a small price to pay” for global security.
• Trump said Iran “might keep going a little long” but insisted the conflict will end soon, “one way or the other.”
• He claimed the US is winning the war and said oil and other prices would “come tumbling down” once the conflict ends.
• Trump also said Iran will not be allowed to acquire a nuclear weapon, calling the campaign a safeguard for the US, Israel and the wider Middle East.
• Trump stated at a rally in Grand Island, Nebraska, that high oil prices are a "small price" for national security. He claimed oil prices are lower than under Biden and predicted gasoline will drop below $1.85 per gallon (about 3.8 liters) soon, possibly around the Nov. 3 midterms. He also reiterated that the U.S. will not allow Iran to get nuclear weapons.

US Warns Foreign Banks Could Face Sanctions for Dealing With Iran

• The US Treasury warned foreign financial institutions dealing with sanctioned Iranian banks could be targeted “at any time without advance notification,” Reuters reported.
• The alert builds on Operation Economic Outcast, launched on August 24, expanding secondary sanctions across digital assets, gold and shipping.
• Penalties could include losing access to US correspondent accounts, with Treasury urging banks to cut ties with sanctioned Iranian lenders.
• The warning escalates Washington’s pressure campaign against Iran’s financial network.

World Bank Warns Asia’s Buffer Against Oil Shock Is Running Out

• The World Bank warned that Asia’s reliance on fuel subsidies to cushion the impact of higher energy prices could become unsustainable if the oil shock persists.
• The bank expects Middle Eastern oil exports to remain below pre conflict levels until mid 2027.
• Indonesia, Thailand and Vietnam have cut gasoline prices, with their dollar reserves falling 15% to 40% this year, according to the World Bank.
• The report warned prolonged subsidies could increase fiscal costs and drain foreign exchange reserves, while AI driven growth is currently helping offset some energy risks.

Pezeshkian Says Iran’s Talks With US Repeatedly Followed by War

• Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said Iran’s problem with the US is that “every time we sit at the negotiating table, we encounter war,” according to Al Jazeera.
• Pezeshkian said Tehran had repeatedly shown willingness to address its nuclear programme and accept IAEA monitoring, but accused the US and Israel of subsequently targeting nuclear sites and scientists.
• He said Iran no longer trusts Washington, arguing that negotiations are meaningless if commitments are broken and sanctions, pressure and attacks continue.
• Pezeshkian also said three attacks followed previous talks, which he cited as evidence that Iran’s adversaries were not seeking dialogue.
• The US 10 year Treasury yield has climbed to around 5.34%, its highest level since 2002.

3 Vessels Struck in Strait of Hormuz as Trump Blames Refineries for Gasoline Prices

• UKMTO said 3 vessels, including 2 oil tankers and 1 LPG carrier, were struck by unidentified projectiles in the Strait of Hormuz.
• UKMTO also reported that Iran’s IRGC ordered an oil tanker to turn back about 11 nautical miles north of As Sib, Oman. The vessel complied.
• Trump said gasoline prices are no longer being driven by the Strait of Hormuz, citing record crude flows, and blamed refinery disruptions for the price pressure.
• Trump pointed to Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries and refinery closures in US states including California as key factors.

Trump Weighs Wider Red Dyed Diesel Use to Cut $6.32 Fuel Costs

• The Trump administration is reportedly preparing to ease restrictions on red dyed diesel, a tax exempt fuel normally reserved for off road use, to reduce diesel costs.
• Red dyed diesel is exempt from the 24.4 cent per gallon federal highway diesel tax, meaning wider use could lower fuel costs for eligible users.
• US diesel prices were around $6.32 per gallon in the latest data cited, after reaching a record $6.53 last month. Prices were about $3.76 when the US Israel attacks on Iran began in February.
• The move comes as the administration seeks alternatives to a diesel export ban amid tight global fuel supplies and rising costs ahead of the November midterm elections.

• Update

• Trump signed an executive order in Grand Island, Nebraska, removing the off-highway requirement for tax-exempt red-dyed diesel, allowing anyone to purchase it for any purpose.

Aramco Warns Global Oil Inventories Are “Worryingly Low” as Hormuz Crisis Deepens

• Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser warned that global oil inventories used to absorb supply shocks are at worryingly low levels.
• Nasser said supply pressures could intensify further if the Strait of Hormuz does not fully reopen, with refined product prices facing even sharper pressure than crude.
• Major economies have announced plans to release up to 100 million barrels of emergency crude and diesel reserves to ease fuel price pressures.
• Aramco is exploring alternative crude export routes and expanding international storage to reduce reliance on a single transport route.
• Saudi Aramco CEO: Oil demand is recovering, with global inventories needing replenishment.
• He said the world will need at least 2 million bpd of additional oil demand over the next 18 months to draw down current inventories. Aramco continues exports via Yanbu, Sidi Kerir and Port Said.
• Aramco CEO stated Brent crude could hit $200/bbl without east-west pipelines. He noted ample inventories to supply customers and that physical crude prices often trade $20-50/bbl above Brent.
• Saudi Aramco's CEO stated that under 10% of oil inventories are actually usable; the rest consists of pipeline fill, minimum tank levels, and operational reserves. He added that if current conditions normalize, crude oil demand will stay stable for the next two years.

India US Trade Talks Hit Plateau as Deal Prospects Dim

• India and the US have reached a “plateau” in trade negotiations, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said, with further concessions becoming “very, very difficult.”
• US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said last week that a deal was not imminent after meeting Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal.
• The two sides have been negotiating since February 2025, with market access and the trade imbalance among the key issues.
• India is seeking preferential tariff treatment and protection against future punitive measures after any agreement.

Indian Brokers Raise ₹3.2 Trillion Through Commercial Paper as Margin Trading Surges

• Stock brokers accounted for about 21% of India’s commercial paper issuance this year, up sharply from 4% in 2021, according to Prime Database.
• Prominent brokers have raised around ₹3.2 trillion, or about $33 billion, as leveraged equity positions approached a record ₹1.6 trillion by September 30.
• The surge highlights how India’s growing margin trading activity is driving demand for short term funding. Brokerages charge roughly 9% to 20% on margin loans, while three month non bank financier CP yields were around 7.18% last week.
• HDFC Securities, ICICI Securities and Kotak Securities are among major issuers, while Zerodha founder Nithin Kamath has warned that a sharp market decline could create risks for the rapidly growing margin lending business.
• Source: Bloomberg.

Maharashtra Faces 22.79% Green Fodder Deficit as Drought Deepens

• Maharashtra is facing a 22.79% shortage of green fodder and a 21.43% deficit in dry fodder amid worsening drought conditions.
• The state has around 2.78 crore livestock, requiring 1,176.78 lakh metric tonnes of green fodder. Availability stands at just 907.49 lakh metric tonnes, leaving a 268.37 lakh tonne shortfall.
• Dry fodder availability is 296.62 lakh metric tonnes against a requirement of 377.87 lakh tonnes, leaving an 81.06 lakh tonne deficit.
• CM Devendra Fadnavis has warned that the situation could become more severe than the 1972 drought, with crop losses and rural economic pressure rising across the state.

India Reservoir Storage Falls to 71.8%, Southern States at Just 49.2%

• India’s reservoir water storage stood at 71.84% of total capacity as of October 1, well below 90.31% recorded a year earlier and the normal level of 81.79%.
• The situation is worse in Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Kerala, Tamil Nadu and Karnataka, where storage was just 49.15% of capacity.
• Southern storage stood at 87.82% a year ago, against a normal level of 76.28%.
• Maharashtra, Karnataka and Rajasthan are also facing acute water shortages, raising concerns over agriculture, hydropower and drinking water supplies.

Karnataka Drought Hits 217 of 240 Talukas, Crop Losses Near ₹46,000 Crore

• Karnataka has declared 217 of its 240 talukas drought affected, with the government estimating crop losses at around ₹46,000 crore.
• The state has sought ₹7,142.64 crore in drought relief from the Centre under National Disaster Response Fund norms, up from its earlier request of ₹3,705.30 crore.
• A Central Inter Ministerial team began a three day assessment on October 3 and is expected to complete its inspection by October 6.
• The latest crop loss estimate is broadly in line with the state’s earlier estimate of ₹46,325 crore.

India US Trade Talks Hit “Plateau” as Further Give and Take Gets Difficult

• Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said India US trade deal negotiations are still ongoing, but both sides appear to have reached a “plateau” after a hard and rigorously negotiated agreement.
• She said any further give and take could be “very, very difficult” for both sides, although there may still be room to operate.
• Sitharaman said the US is seeking to address trade imbalances through measures beyond negotiations and accused Washington of weaponising tariffs despite an existing framework.
• She described the agreement as difficult and rigorously negotiated, with both sides now at a high point in the talks.

Nearly 200 Under Observation After Siberian Anti Plague Lab Worker Dies

• A 28 year old researcher at Russia’s Irkutsk Anti Plague Research Institute died after developing severe pneumonia, prompting quarantine measures and contact tracing.
• Nearly 200 people have reportedly been placed under medical observation, while several hospitals introduced quarantine measures.
• Reports said the researcher, Darya Shipilova, may have accidentally broken a test tube containing plague bacteria. However, Russian health authorities have not confirmed that plague caused her death and have described the illness as pneumonia of unknown origin.
• Officials said identified contacts have shown no symptoms and tests have been negative, with authorities saying there is currently no evidence of a wider outbreak.

Iran Says Hormuz Will Reopen in 7 Days if US Accepts 7 Conditions

• Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said the Strait of Hormuz could reopen within seven days if the US accepts Iran’s seven day plan.
• Iranian parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said the Strait will remain closed until seven conditions under the Islamabad memorandum are fulfilled.
• Araghchi said Tehran remains ready for diplomacy and a fair settlement but warned that any renewed military aggression would trigger a stronger Iranian response.
• He said Iran’s position is that negotiations based on dignity, justice and fairness are the only path to ending the conflict.

South Korea Orders Full Security Checks After Financial Sector Cyberattacks

• A series of cyberattacks that caused personal data leaks has prompted South Korean financial regulators to order firms to conduct full internal security checks.
• FSC Chair Lee Eog weon said the entire financial sector must carry out rapid and thorough inspections and report findings to authorities.
• Preliminary probes found attacks targeting under monitored external websites and servers used by loan agents and staff. Regulators said they cannot rule out AI being used in the attacks.
• President Lee has been briefed and ordered a full investigation and response plan, while regulators urged faster deployment of AI based cybersecurity systems.