🔴 Breaking
Trump Says No Iran Talks; Qatar Pushes For Hormuz Reopening
- Trump said there are no negotiations or talks with Iran ongoing or scheduled. He claimed the U.S. naval blockade remains fully effective, the Strait of Hormuz is open and operating normally, and all sea mines have been removed or detonated.
- Qatar Foreign Ministry spokesman Majid Ansari said Doha is pushing for a U.S.-Iran ceasefire, reopening of Hormuz and freedom of navigation, while urging both sides to return to negotiations.
- Qatar, with Pakistan, helped mediate the U.S.-Iran MoU and is pressing for its implementation. Ansari said ceasefire breaches have prevented full implementation and that Qatar is awaiting an Oman-Iran Strait agreement as a potential catalyst for renewed talks.
- Qatar also denied Iran’s claim that three Iranian pilots were detained, saying Iranian military aircraft violated Qatari airspace and that one pilot’s remains were recovered after a search operation.
Google To Shift Pixel Production To India And Vietnam From 2027
- Google has told suppliers it plans to produce all Pixel smartphones, smartwatches and earbuds outside China from 2027, according to Nikkei Asia.
- Google will shift manufacturing to India and Vietnam, making it the second major smartphone brand after Samsung to exit China for device production.
- Successful production of high-end Pixel phones in Vietnam this year has given Google confidence to meet the 2027 target.
- Google expects Pixel shipments to rise 8%–10% this year, despite surging memory-chip costs that have forced rivals to cut forecasts.
US net interest payments are hitting record levels.
- Net interest is projected at 3.3% of GDP in FY2026, up from around 3.1% to 3.2% in FY2025.
- The cost of servicing US debt is already larger than defense spending, putting increasing pressure on government finances and other spending priorities.
- Under current policy, CBO projections show net interest could rise to 4.6% of GDP by 2036.
- The rising burden highlights how higher interest rates and a larger debt pile are increasingly constraining US fiscal policy.
Global Bond Yields Surge As Investors Fear Higher Rates
- Long-term bonds are facing growing investor anxiety as inflation, rising government debt and a debt-fuelled AI boom drive sovereign yields higher worldwide.
- The U.S. 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.321%, its highest since mid-2007. French borrowing costs reached levels not seen since 2008, German yields neared 2011 highs, UK yields approached 6%, while Japanese long-term yields moved near record highs.
- The rise reflects concerns over persistent inflation, higher government spending, geopolitical fragmentation and weaker structural demand for sovereign debt.
- AXA IM CIO Chris Iggo said a sudden deterioration in economic data or an external shock may be needed to materially improve the outlook for long-duration bonds.
🔴 Breaking
Iran Says It “Won War And Diplomacy” As U.S. Objectives Failed
- Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi said several foreign ministers privately told him Iran had “won the war and diplomacy.”
- Araghchi said Iran rejected an immediate ceasefire, continued fighting until the other side accepted negotiations on Iran’s terms, and ultimately agreed to a ceasefire after the opponent accepted Iran’s counterproposal.
- He said several ambassadors told him the MoU largely favored Iran, but the opponent began violating it within two weeks. Araghchi identified Israel as the main opponent and obstacle to implementing the agreement.
- Araghchi said Washington suffered four failures: forcing Iran’s unconditional surrender, achieving regime change, dividing Iran and arming groups inside Iran and its western provinces.
RBI Asks Rating Agencies Not To Name It In Bank Deposit Ratings
- RBI has reportedly told credit rating agencies to stop mentioning “RBI as regulator” in reports rating bank deposits, according to ET.
- The move comes amid concerns that a sudden downgrade could trigger a flight of deposits and destabilise banks. Rating agencies have approached SEBI for guidance.
- CRAs will continue rating bank loans, deposits and bonds, but must identify the regulator overseeing each rated instrument under SEBI rules introduced in February 2026.
- DICGC currently insures bank deposits up to ₹5 lakh per depositor per bank, while a proposal to raise the limit to ₹7.5 lakh is awaiting approval.
Foreign Holdings Of U.S. Treasuries Fall $72 Billion In June
- Foreign holdings of U.S. Treasuries fell to $9.299 trillion in June from $9.371 trillion in May, marking about $72 billion in net foreign selling. Holdings remain 2.3% higher YoY.
- Japan remained the largest foreign holder but cut its holdings 2.3% to $1.116 trillion, well below its $1.325 trillion November 2021 peak. China and some custody centres were also net sellers, while Canada, Belgium and Switzerland bought.
- Foreign investors were net sellers of $56 billion over the past 3 months but net buyers of $205 billion over 12 months. Total U.S. inflows, including equities, reached $173 billion in June.
- ING said the unresolved U.S.-Iran truce and heavy corporate issuance keep the Treasury market bias bearish, potentially pushing yields higher. In Europe, ECB balance-sheet runoff is tightening liquidity and reinforcing a bearish outlook for German Bunds.
Trump’s approval rating has fallen to a second term low.
- A Reuters Ipsos poll on August 17 found 33% of US adults approve of Trump’s performance, while 64% disapprove.
- The 33% approval rating is down from 35% earlier this month and matches his previous term low from December 2017.
- About 80% of respondents expect fighting between the US and Iran to continue for a long time.
🔴 Breaking
Crude Oil Jumps 3% As U.S.-Iran Deal Prospects Fade
- International crude prices rose about 3% on Monday as prospects for a U.S.-Iran agreement weakened.
- President Trump said he does not intend to extend the U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding, which technically expired Monday. Major disputes remain, particularly over the Strait of Hormuz.
- U.S. officials signaled Washington is not in a hurry to end the nearly six-month confrontation. The U.S. Energy Secretary called the Iran policy a long-term game, while senior adviser Jared Kushner said Trump will remain patient on any agreement.
- The stalled diplomacy adds fresh upside risk to crude prices, with Hormuz remaining the key unresolved issue.
Trump Threatens Oman With Bombing If It Obstructs U.S.
- Fox News: Trump Threatens Oman With Bombing If It Obstructs U.S.
- Trump told Fox News on Monday that he would “bomb the s* out of” Oman** if it obstructs U.S. efforts in the Strait of Hormuz.
- Iran and Oman have been negotiating a commercial shipping route through the Strait, with Tehran saying an agreement on the route map has been reached.
- Trump also confirmed backchannel communications with IRGC officials and said he is “not in a hurry” to reach a deal with Iran.
- The warning comes as Oman is mediating regional tensions while separately working with Iran on a maritime transit roadmap for Hormuz.
- Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said its officials did not hold any secret-channel talks with the United States.
🔴 Breaking
Iran Says No Talks With U.S. As Oman Transit Roadmap Advances
- Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Baghaei said Tehran will not make decisions under time pressure or ultimatums, adding that recent hostilities resulted from an enemy miscalculation of Iran’s national resolve.
- Baghaei said no negotiations with Washington have begun, citing the U.S. breach of the memorandum of understanding. He said the MoU deadline was intended to provide time for talks on sanctions relief and nuclear issues.
- Pakistan and Qatar are the only mediators currently working to ease tensions, according to Baghaei.
- Iran and Oman are actively drafting a maritime transit roadmap for the Strait of Hormuz, while Tehran says existing laws already protect its sovereign rights over the Persian Gulf, Strait of Hormuz and Gulf of Oman.
- Baghaei also warned that cooperation by some neighboring countries with the aggressor violates good-neighbor relations.
Gold is winning the trade Bitcoin was designed for.
- Bitcoin has fallen 46% over the past year to around $63,000, while gold has gained 32% to about $4,376.
- The pressure on Bitcoin is coming as global bond yields hit their highest levels since July 2008, before Bitcoin even existed.
- The US 30 year Treasury auction on August 13 drew a 5.216% yield, the highest since 2001, with below average investor demand.
- As real yields rise, investors are moving toward government debt and gold, putting pressure on Bitcoin’s “fiscal doubt” trade.
Goldman Says Fed Rate-Hike Bets Too Aggressive; BOJ Urged To Hike Above 2%
- Goldman Sachs chief economist Jan Hatzius said a September Fed rate hike is “extremely unlikely”, citing weak retail sales, disappointing jobs data and cooling inflation.
- Goldman says markets remain too hawkish on Fed policy, with traders now pricing the next 25bp hike for January 2027, after fully pricing a December move just a week ago.
- Former Japan finance ministry official Takehiko Nakao said the BOJ should raise rates at every meeting, targeting a policy rate above 2% to narrow the Japan-U.S. yield gap and support the yen.
- Nakao said a 2.25–2.5% policy rate would not be unusual with inflation around 2%, while even a 1% rate would leave Japan’s real rate negative.
India’s silver imports are back after six months of disruption.
- Traders imported about 89.81 tonnes of silver through the India International Gold and Silver Exchange in August, after six consecutive months without imports.
- Around 400 tonnes of import licences have reportedly been approved under the new licensing regime, with supply already “definitely improved” from July, according to Metals Focus.
- The higher supply has narrowed India’s domestic premium over international prices, although the 30 day average premium was still around $4 per ounce as of last Friday.
Iran Says U.S. Forces Expelled From Persian Gulf Region
- Iran Army Commander Amir Hatami said U.S. forces have been expelled and are no longer permitted to enter the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman or Strait of Hormuz.
- Hatami said U.S. military bases in the region can never return to their previous status, adding that Iran will not allow it.
- Iran’s parliament also passed an anti-infiltration bill targeting alleged infiltration by hostile intelligence agencies, foreign governments and organizations, addressing what lawmakers called a legal gap in existing espionage laws.
- IRIB also reported that Hatami announced a $30,000 bounty for capturing or killing U.S. service members, with the payment reportedly intended for an Iranian soldier carrying out the act.
Alphabet’s SpaceX Stake Soars To $94.2 Billion
- Alphabet held 551.2 million SpaceX shares worth about $94.2 billion as of June 30, stemming from a $900 million investment in 2015.
- SpaceX’s $86 billion IPO in June made the stake visible in 13F filings. Alphabet is now the largest institutional holder, with Gigafund Management, Baillie Gifford and BlackRock also among major holders.
- Harvard Management Company disclosed a $2.2 billion SpaceX stake, making it the largest single-stock holding in its $4.3 billion U.S. equity portfolio. The University of California disclosed about $1 billion, while UNC and Washington University also hold stakes.
- SpaceX shares have pulled back from their June 30 peak but remain above the $135 IPO price. Retail investors became net sellers for the first time last Friday.
Nvidia Discloses $21 Billion SpaceX Stake Alongside $30 Billion Intel Holding
- Nvidia disclosed 122.8 million SpaceX Class A shares worth about $21 billion at the end of Q2, alongside a roughly $30 billion stake in Intel.
- The SpaceX holding originated from Nvidia’s $10 billion investment in xAI in January, before SpaceX acquired xAI in a $1.25 trillion deal in February.
- Elon Musk said SpaceX will exclusively use Nvidia chips in its AI data centres and expects a “significant allocation” of next-generation Vera Rubin GPUs.
Iran, Oman Agree On Strait Of Hormuz Transit Plan
- Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Baghaei said talks with Oman continued despite U.S. obstruction, with both sides reaching an agreement on a transit plan for the Strait of Hormuz shipping lane.
- Iran and Oman appear to have agreed on specific shipping routes through the Strait. Baghaei said a finalized “shipping map” will form part of a broader arrangement and a separate bilateral pact to protect sovereignty and ensure safe passage.
- Transit fees and security measures have not been disclosed, and further negotiations are planned.
- The agreement follows recent attacks in the Strait. The U.S. was not involved in the arrangement and is unlikely to accept any deal that does not restore free navigation.
