India is expanding domestic crude oil exploration to reduce its dependence on imports. Petroleum and Natural Gas Minister Hardeep Singh Puri said around 250,000 sq km of previously unexplored acreage is being offered for exploration. He also said recent transit constraints through the Strait of Hormuz tightened oil supplies.
India produced 25.98 million tonnes of crude oil in FY25, or about 522,000 barrels per day (bpd). This is down from a 2011 peak of more than 900,000 bpd and currently meets only about 10% of the country’s domestic crude demand. To strengthen energy security, India has expanded its supplier base from 27 to 41 countries, adding Iran and Venezuela while increasing purchases from Russia and several African suppliers.
The minister said there are currently no plans to cut fuel prices in India. State-owned fuel retailers recorded a ₹199 billion revenue loss on petrol sales during April–June. He also said India needs to expand its crude oil and fuel storage capacity, while noting that Russia may have imported India-origin refined petroleum products through traders and that exports of petroleum products to Russia remain a possibility.
Oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz have rebounded to more than 10 million bpd following the U.S.-Iran agreement. Iran exported 50 million barrels over the past two weeks, generating an estimated $3.5 billion. Tehran plans to introduce transit fees after the 60-day free-passage period ends in mid-August, although the United States has rejected the proposal.
Reflecting improved supply conditions, OCBC Group Research lowered its Brent crude price forecasts to $75/bbl for Q3 2026 and Q4 2026, $73/bbl for Q1 2027, and $71/bbl for Q2 2027. Morgan Stanley also cut its 2027 Brent forecast to $75/bbl in the first half and $70/bbl in the second half, expecting a global oil supply surplus of 4.8 million bpd in 2027.
Meanwhile, China announced its biggest fuel price cut of 2026, effective July 3. Gasoline prices were reduced by 950 yuan/tonne and diesel by 915 yuan/tonne, while 92-octane, 95-octane gasoline and diesel prices fell by 0.75–0.79 yuan per litre. Filling a 50-litre tank with 92-octane gasoline will now cost about 37.5 yuan less.
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