The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said on June 2 that most climate models expect the current El Niño to strengthen further, with a high chance of reaching at least moderate intensity. Sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific are already close to El Niño levels, while some subsurface ocean areas are more than 6°C warmer than normal.
According to the WMO, El Niño is likely to change global weather patterns and increase the risk of heatwaves, droughts, heavy rainfall, and floods. Its latest outlook shows above normal temperatures across most regions in the coming months.
The WMO also warned that South Asia, the Horn of Africa, and parts of Central America could receive below normal rainfall, raising concerns about drought conditions in these regions.
India is facing the possibility of its driest monsoon in a decade after the India Meteorological Department (IMD) lowered its monsoon forecast to 90% of the Long Period Average (LPA), down from its earlier estimate of 92% issued in April.
The LPA, based on average rainfall during 1971-2020, stands at 89 cm for the June to September monsoon season. The latest forecast is the lowest IMD projection in the last 20 years, and the weather agency says there is a 60% probability that seasonal rainfall will remain below 90% of the LPA.
Meteorologists believe the downgrade may be linked to a strengthening El Niño and evolving Indian Ocean Dipole conditions. Forecasts suggest this El Niño could become one of the strongest on record and may continue into next year, increasing the risk of weaker monsoon rains across India.
WMO Warns El Niño Could Intensify Further; IMD Sees India Facing Driest Monsoon in a Decade
Kanika Sharma is a Geopolitical Analyst and Editor at BigBreakingWire. She holds a Master's degree in History from the Central University of Punjab, with an academic background in qualitative research, text analysis, and historical frameworks. At BigBreakingWire, she analyzes global trade shifts, international policies, geopolitical developments, semiconductor supply chains, manufacturing policies, and sovereign industrial initiatives. Her work combines historical context with contemporary policy and macroeconomic analysis to explain complex global developments clearly and accurately.
Disclaimer: BigBreakingWire provides news and informational content for general educational purposes only. The information presented on this website does not constitute financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Readers should consult qualified professionals before making any financial decisions. BigBreakingWire, its authors, and editors are not responsible for any financial losses or damages arising from the use of information on this site.
