US and Iran are nearing a possible breakthrough deal to stop the ongoing conflict and restart nuclear negotiations, according to an Axios report citing U.S. officials and sources. A one page Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) is reportedly being finalized, with Iran expected to respond within the next 48 hours. Officials say this is the closest both sides have come to an agreement since the war began.
Under the proposed terms, Iran would halt uranium enrichment for around 12 to 15 years, though Iran reportedly wants a shorter 5 year limit while the U.S. is pushing for 20 years. Tehran would also commit to not pursuing nuclear weapons and allow stricter UN nuclear inspections.
The draft discussions also include a possible transfer of Iran’s highly enriched uranium stockpile to another country. Restrictions on underground nuclear facilities are also being considered as part of the framework to reduce future nuclear risks.
In return, the United States is expected to gradually lift sanctions on Iran and release billions of dollars in frozen Iranian assets. Both sides are also discussing easing restrictions on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a key global oil route that has faced severe disruptions during the conflict.
If the MOU is accepted, it would officially end hostilities and trigger a new 30 day negotiation phase. Talks are expected to take place either in Islamabad or Geneva. Maritime restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz could be temporarily eased during this period but may return if negotiations collapse.
The report also said President Donald Trump paused plans for further escalation as diplomatic progress improved. However, concerns remain inside Washington over divisions within Iran’s leadership and whether Tehran’s position could shift during negotiations.
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said no immediate written agreement is required, describing the discussions as highly complex and uncertain. Officials on both sides reportedly remain cautious despite growing optimism around the talks.
Global markets rallied after reports suggested the U.S. expects Iran’s response within 48 hours. Europe’s STOXX Europe 600 jumped 2.3%, while India’s NIFTY 50 rose 1%. Germany and UK bond yields also fell sharply as investors reduced safe haven bets. U.S. futures moved higher, with S&P 500 E-mini futures up 0.71%, Dow futures up 0.66%, and Nasdaq 100 futures climbing 1.26%.
Spot silver surged more than 5% to $77.17 per ounce, while Bitcoin hit a 3 month high of $81,956, according to LSEG. European energy stocks dropped 2.2% as oil prices fell following reports of a possible U.S.–Iran deal to end the war. The yield on 10 year U.S. Treasury notes also slipped 6 basis points to a one week low after the Axios report.
Energy markets extended losses after reports of a possible US-Iran deal to end the war. WTI crude fell 7.90% to $94.19, Brent dropped 7.39% to $101.75, while London Gas Oil slid 9.06% and Dutch TTF gas fell 8.19%.
Trump paused Project Freedom after Pakistan’s request as Iran imposed Hormuz transit permits, escalating global oil and shipping fears.
Trump says if Iran accepts the proposed agreement, the “Epic Fury” conflict will end and Hormuz Strait will reopen. He warned that if Tehran rejects the deal, bombing will resume at a much higher intensity.
Iran Says US Proposal Has “Unacceptable Terms”
Tasnim reports Iran has not officially responded to the latest US proposal yet, with Iranian sources saying the plan includes “some unacceptable terms.” The source also claimed that reports in US media about a near-final “one-page deal” are largely being pushed to justify Donald Trump stepping back from recent aggressive actions.
Iranian Parliament Speaker: We do not rule out a military attack. I am surprised our enemies still fail to understand we are ready to die rather than surrender.
Trump Says US Closing In on Iran Deal, Warns Bombing Will Resume if Talks Fail
Trump told PBS there is a “good chance” the Iran war could end soon and said the US is “closing in on a deal” with Tehran. He added a possible agreement could even be reached before his China visit.
Trump said if a deal is reached, the US could ease sanctions on Iran. He also claimed the agreement would include Iran not using underground nuclear facilities and transferring its uranium to the United States.
However, Trump warned that if talks fail, Washington would “go back to the old ways” and resume bombing Iran. He also said oil prices could fall quickly after the war ends “or not, nobody knows,” according to PBS.
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