US and Iran are nearing a possible breakthrough deal to stop the ongoing conflict and restart nuclear negotiations, according to an Axios report citing U.S. officials and sources. A one page Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) is reportedly being finalized, with Iran expected to respond within the next 48 hours. Officials say this is the closest both sides have come to an agreement since the war began.
Under the proposed terms, Iran would halt uranium enrichment for around 12 to 15 years, though Iran reportedly wants a shorter 5 year limit while the U.S. is pushing for 20 years. Tehran would also commit to not pursuing nuclear weapons and allow stricter UN nuclear inspections.
The draft discussions also include a possible transfer of Iran’s highly enriched uranium stockpile to another country. Restrictions on underground nuclear facilities are also being considered as part of the framework to reduce future nuclear risks.
In return, the United States is expected to gradually lift sanctions on Iran and release billions of dollars in frozen Iranian assets. Both sides are also discussing easing restrictions on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a key global oil route that has faced severe disruptions during the conflict.
If the MOU is accepted, it would officially end hostilities and trigger a new 30 day negotiation phase. Talks are expected to take place either in Islamabad or Geneva. Maritime restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz could be temporarily eased during this period but may return if negotiations collapse.
The report also said President Donald Trump paused plans for further escalation as diplomatic progress improved. However, concerns remain inside Washington over divisions within Iran’s leadership and whether Tehran’s position could shift during negotiations.
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said no immediate written agreement is required, describing the discussions as highly complex and uncertain. Officials on both sides reportedly remain cautious despite growing optimism around the talks.
Global markets rallied after reports suggested the U.S. expects Iran’s response within 48 hours. Europe’s STOXX Europe 600 jumped 2.3%, while India’s NIFTY 50 rose 1%. Germany and UK bond yields also fell sharply as investors reduced safe haven bets. U.S. futures moved higher, with S&P 500 E-mini futures up 0.71%, Dow futures up 0.66%, and Nasdaq 100 futures climbing 1.26%.
Spot silver surged more than 5% to $77.17 per ounce, while Bitcoin hit a 3 month high of $81,956, according to LSEG. European energy stocks dropped 2.2% as oil prices fell following reports of a possible U.S.–Iran deal to end the war. The yield on 10 year U.S. Treasury notes also slipped 6 basis points to a one week low after the Axios report.
Energy markets extended losses after reports of a possible US-Iran deal to end the war. WTI crude fell 7.90% to $94.19, Brent dropped 7.39% to $101.75, while London Gas Oil slid 9.06% and Dutch TTF gas fell 8.19%.
Trump paused Project Freedom after Pakistan’s request as Iran imposed Hormuz transit permits, escalating global oil and shipping fears.
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