Live News Blog

China Halts Refined Fuel Exports as Diesel Margins Hit $75

• China has suspended refined fuel exports outside Hong Kong and Macau, while PetroChina cancelled several October petrol and jet fuel cargoes.
• Domestic petrol stocks are at their lowest since 2011 and diesel stocks since 2015 after exports surged earlier this year.
• Asian diesel margins have climbed to around $75 a barrel as the export restrictions tighten regional supply.
• Traders are watching whether Beijing restores export permits after the holiday ends on October 7.

S&P Calls Hormuz Closure Biggest Global Energy Shock Since WWII

• S&P Global said the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz is the biggest disruption to global energy supplies since the Second World War.
• The disruption has cut global crude and refined product supplies by about 20% and LNG supplies by 16%, with Asia facing the greatest impact.
• India is among the most exposed countries, with more than half of its crude imports passing through the Strait.
• JPMorgan analysts said they can no longer model how the crisis will end, while the IEA has reported global oil inventories are being depleted.

HDFC Bank Names Anup Bagchi CEO, ADR Jumps Over 5%

• HDFC Bank appointed Anup Bagchi as Managing Director and CEO after RBI approval for a three year term.
• Bagchi, currently MD & CEO of ICICI Prudential Life Insurance, will take charge on October 27, after Sashidhar Jagdishan’s tenure ends on October 26.
• The RBI approved his appointment through October 26, 2029, subject to shareholder approval.
• HDFC Bank’s US listed ADR jumped more than 5% following the announcement.

SEBI Says Foreign Investor Registration Is Being Made More Seamless

• SEBI Chairman Tuhin Kanta Pandey said investors are free to decide where and how they invest, with regulators not directing them toward specific products.
• Pandey said SEBI and RBI are working to ease registration and regulatory processes for foreign investors.
• He said the focus is on making registration more seamless while leaving investment decisions to investors.
• The comments come as Indian regulators work to simplify access to Indian markets for foreign investors.

U.S. Asks Germany, France to Release Emergency Diesel Reserves

• The U.S. has reportedly asked Germany and France to release emergency diesel stocks to help ease global fuel prices, according to Refinitiv sources.
• Washington warned the countries could face a possible U.S. diesel export ban if they do not release reserves.
• U.S. diesel shipments now account for a growing share of Europe’s supply as American fuel prices rise.
• The EU is now seeking a unified position on whether to release emergency diesel reserves.

• US Secretary of State Marco Rubio demanded that Iran’s UN General Assembly delegation leave the United States after bilateral talks stalled, Axios reported, citing sources.
• The White House initially believed the talks could make progress, but later concluded negotiations had reached an impasse.
• Iranian delegation representatives said they left New York as planned and accused the US government of spreading false claims to cover up the failure of negotiations.
• The two sides remain at odds over the outcome of the talks.

India Investor Interest Remains Cautious Amid Trade, Tariff and Oil Risks

• The Finance Ministry said investor interest in India remains intact but cautious, with uncertainty over India US trade ties, tariffs and crude oil prices weighing on the investment outlook.
• The ministry also flagged the absence of an India angle in global AI developments as a factor affecting investor interest.
• It said sustained high quality, consistent and swift decision making would reassure investors and called for a more competition friendly economy.
• The ministry warned of inflation risks from El Niño, geopolitical tensions and elevated crude prices, while rising developed market interest rates could spill over into Indian bond yields.

Gautam Adani Tops India’s Richest List With $112.7 Billion Fortune

• Forbes ranked Gautam Adani No. 1 among India’s 100 richest, ending three years in second place.
• Adani’s family fortune rose $20.7 billion to $112.7 billion, according to Forbes.
• Mukesh Ambani fell to No. 2 with a fortune of $86.3 billion as Reliance shares came under pressure from retail margin challenges.
• Tech billionaires including HCL Technologies’ Shiv Nadar and Wipro’s Azim Premji also saw their wealth decline as AI automation pressured software services.

Morgan Stanley Sees RBI Starting 100 Bps Rate Hike Cycle on October 7

• Morgan Stanley expects the RBI to raise the repo rate by 25 bps on October 7, marking the start of a projected 100 bps tightening cycle.
• A Reuters poll showed 35 of 61 economists expect a 25 bps hike to 5.50%, which would be the first increase since 2023.
• Morgan Stanley now forecasts four 25 bps hikes, taking the repo rate to 6.25% by April 2027, after previously expecting hikes to begin in December.
• Economist Sunil Sinha said higher crude costs not yet passed through to consumers represent “hidden inflation,” while a weak monsoon could add pressure to food prices.

UPI Hits Record 802 Million Daily Transactions in September

• UPI processed around 802 million transactions per day in September, up 23% year on year, according to NPCI data.
• Monthly volume reached 24.07 billion transactions worth ₹29.37 lakh crore, despite September having one fewer day than August.
• Cashfree’s Reeju Datta attributed higher value payments partly to increased spending during Ganesh Chaturthi.
• Traders also called off their planned “No UPI Day” on October 2 after meeting Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman over the proposed 0.4% MDR on payments above ₹2,000.
• The new MDR charges are scheduled to take effect from October 15.

Indian Refiners Charter Tankers Through Hormuz to Secure Gulf Crude

• Indian refiners have started chartering tankers to transit the Strait of Hormuz and load crude from the Persian Gulf.
• The shift comes after refiners previously avoided using their own vessels due to attack risks and relied on Gulf producers and traders to handle voyage risks.
• Recent tenders show Indian Oil, Reliance Industries and HPCL Mittal Energy buying Iraqi crude, with Indian Oil buying about 2 million barrels for October delivery.
• The purchases require Indian refiners to arrange tankers and manage shipping logistics as Hormuz risks remain elevated.
• Source: Bloomberg.

India Monsoon Rainfall Falls 12.6%, Weakest Since 2015

• India’s June to September monsoon rainfall was 12.6% below the long term average, the weakest monsoon since 2015, according to the India Meteorological Department.
• Rainfall totalled 759.4 mm versus the 868.6 mm long term average, raising risks for crops, reservoirs and food prices.
• Food inflation accelerated for a seventh straight month to 5.95% in August, the highest level this year, with rice, sugar cane and soybean production facing pressure.
• Only 42% of assessed districts received normal rainfall, while 38% were deficient. East and Northeast India ended the season 26% below average.

Modi, Trump Discuss Trade as India Pushes for Interim Deal

• Prime Minister Narendra Modi and US President Donald Trump held their first phone call since June, reviewing trade, defence, energy and critical technology cooperation.
• India’s Trade Minister Piyush Goyal also discussed an interim agreement with US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, as New Delhi seeks to finalise a broader bilateral trade deal.
• Modi said the two sides agreed to maintain close communication to advance the India US Comprehensive Global Strategic Partnership.
• The leaders also exchanged views on regional and international issues, including efforts to promote global peace and security.

US, South Korea Unveil $200 Billion Investment Package

• US President Donald Trump unveiled South Korean investment plans worth up to $200 billion under last year’s $350 billion strategic trade and investment pact.
• The package includes $120 billion for eight large nuclear reactors, more than $50 billion for the Alaska LNG project and over $22 billion for a 6.47 GW gas fired power plant in Texas.
• The nuclear projects are planned across Ohio, Tennessee, South Carolina and Kentucky, with six Westinghouse AP1000 and two Korean APR1400 reactors included in the framework.
• South Korea’s government said the Texas project is finalized, while the Alaska LNG and nuclear projects remain subject to further discussions and commercial viability reviews.

Modi Says India, US Agree to Maintain Close Communication

• Prime Minister Narendra Modi said he held a productive discussion with US President Donald Trump.
• The two leaders reviewed bilateral cooperation in trade, defence, energy and critical technologies.
• Modi said they also exchanged views on regional and international issues, including efforts to promote global peace and security.
• Both sides agreed to maintain close communication to advance the India US Comprehensive Global Strategic Partnership.

Bank of England Warns of Rising Spillover Risk in UK Gilt Market

• The Bank of England warned that high hedge fund leverage in the UK gilt market, combined with exposure to AI related assets and corporate debt, is increasing cross market spillover risks.
• The warning comes as the UK 10 year gilt yield approaches levels last seen during the 2008 financial crisis.
• The Financial Policy Committee is preparing measures to strengthen gilt repo market resilience and curb rising leverage risks.
• The measures are expected to be published in early 2027.

US Core PCE Inflation Slows to 3% in August, Spending Jumps 0.6%

• US core PCE rose 0.2% month on month in August, below the 0.3% market consensus. Annual core PCE eased to 3%, the weakest since February.
• The Fed preferred headline PCE rose 0.3% month on month, while real personal spending jumped 0.6%, the biggest monthly increase since March 2025.
• US goods trade deficit widened 11.5% in August to $132.6 billion, the largest since early 2025 and well above the $115 billion consensus.
• The data show softer core inflation alongside stronger consumer spending and a wider trade deficit.

Iraq Offers Crude at Discounts Up to $37 a Barrel

• Iraq’s State Oil Marketing Organization offered October loading crude at discounts of up to $37 a barrel versus regional benchmarks, according to a September 29 document.
• Basra Medium was offered at a $34.50 discount, while Basra Heavy was discounted by $37 a barrel.
• The steep discounts reflect transport constraints amid Middle East hostilities, with Iraq relying on Persian Gulf routes despite elevated shipping risks.
• Iraq’s limited tanker fleet and distance from the Strait of Hormuz are forcing deeper price incentives to attract buyers.

Bank of England Warns AI Valuations Could Face Sharper Correction

• The Bank of England warned AI valuations remain vulnerable to a sharper correction, which could have broader effects on global growth and sovereign bond yields.
• The Bank said interconnected vulnerabilities across the financial system are rising and the risk of simultaneous shocks has increased.
• It flagged the multi trillion dollar AI market as a major financial stability risk, citing froth across AI equities, credit markets and sovereign debt.
• The Bank also warned that renewed escalation in the Middle East could create a prolonged negative supply shock and increase sovereign debt risks.

Gold Extends Rebound as October Fed Hike Odds Fall to 45%

• Gold extended its rebound as markets assessed progress in US Iran talks and softer signals from the Federal Reserve.
• Iran has proposed a conditional seven day reopening of Strait of Hormuz traffic, with remaining disagreements reportedly focused on sequencing.
• Fed official John Williams said he is not in a hurry to act after September’s rate hike but could raise rates again if the economy meets expectations.
• Market implied odds of an October Fed hike fell to about 45% from roughly 70%.

SEBI Rules Out Panel to Allow NSE, BSE to Trade Their Own Shares

• SEBI Chairman Tuhin Kanta Pandey said there is no panel considering a framework that would allow stock exchanges to trade their own listed shares.
• Under current rules, NSE and BSE cannot trade their own shares on their respective exchanges.
• The clarification comes days after reports suggested SEBI could form a panel to examine allowing exchanges to list and trade their own shares.
• Pandey confirmed on September 30 that no such panel will be formed.

Trump and AI Giants Sign Voluntary AI Safety Pledge

• Trump and leaders of Meta, Nvidia, Alphabet, Anthropic, OpenAI and other major AI firms signed a voluntary self policing agreement after a White House luncheon.
• The “morally binding” pledge requires internal safety controls, independent audits and board oversight, but carries no legal enforcement.
• Democratic lawmakers criticised the agreement for stopping short of government regulation.
• Trump said he plans to appoint an AI czar within days and is considering a 10 member oversight committee, while OpenAI postponed its latest model release over safety concerns.

US Supreme Court Allows Rapid Deportations to Third Countries, December Hearing Set

• The US Supreme Court allowed the Trump administration to resume deporting migrants to countries other than their own without prior notice or an opportunity to raise fears of persecution or torture.
• More than 25,000 migrants have been deported to third countries under the policy, according to Reuters, with 29 countries involved.
• The court also agreed to hear the case in December, while the three liberal justices dissented.
• The administration says the policy is an important immigration enforcement tool, while opponents have raised due process and safety concerns.

Goldman Says Gulf Oil Exports Double in September, Return to 2025 Average

• Goldman Sachs estimates Gulf oil exports, including covert shipments, doubled in September and returned to the 2025 average.
• Saudi Arabia led the recovery, with exports rising above the 2025 average, while Iran recorded no seaborne crude exports in September.
• Goldman analyst Eamonn Sheridan said the data reinforces the supply restoration trend that pushed oil prices lower.
• Goldman also warned refined products and European gas could face tighter supplies than crude if Middle East disruptions persist, adding to diesel supply concerns.

Bain Sees $6.5 Trillion Data Centre Spending Need by 2030

• Bain & Company said $5 trillion to $6.5 trillion in global data centre spending by 2030 will require unprecedented new revenue to sustain AI investment.
• Existing AI services account for only about $1.8 trillion, leaving a potential $4.2 trillion revenue gap by 2031.
• Bain said robotics, autonomous vehicles, drug discovery and other emerging technologies will need to generate trillions in additional revenue.
• Separately, $68 billion of US data centre projects were blocked or delayed by local opposition in the June quarter, according to Bloomberg.

Allianz Sees India GDP Growth at 7.5% in 2026, RBI Tightening Ahead

• Allianz Research expects India’s GDP to grow 7.5% this year, well above its 2.6% global growth forecast.
• Growth is projected to ease to 7.1% in 2027 and 6.8% in 2028 as inflation rises and monetary tightening begins.
• Allianz expects India’s inflation to reach 5.2% in 2027 and sees the RBI entering a tightening cycle in Q4 2026.
• A WEF survey found 74% of chief economists expect strong or very strong growth for India, up from 52% in May.

Fed’s Barr Says Further Rate Hikes May Be Needed to Bring Inflation to 2%

• Fed Governor Michael Barr said inflation remains too high, with disinflation disrupted and no clear trend toward a timely return to the 2% target.
• Barr said upside inflation risks have increased while the labor market remains relatively firm.
• He said further policy adjustments, potentially including additional rate hikes, may be needed to ensure inflation returns to target.
• Barr cited higher global oil prices from the Middle East conflict and stronger demand for high tech goods linked to AI investment as added price pressures.

US Plans to Lend 40 Million Barrels From Strategic Oil Reserve

• The US Energy Department said the Trump administration plans to lend 40 million barrels of crude from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to energy firms to ease fuel price pressure.
• The crude would be provided as loans that companies must return, amid supply disruptions linked to Iran tensions and the Russia Ukraine war.
• In March, the US, IEA and around 30 countries agreed to release roughly 400 million barrels from emergency reserves, with the US pledging 172 million barrels.
• However, companies had agreed to borrow only about 0.5 million barrels by the end of June from the remaining 40 million barrels proposed for release.

Russia Crude Exports Hit 3.71 Million Bpd as Diesel Exports Plunge

• Russia’s four week average crude exports rose to 3.71 million bpd through September 27, the highest since early August.
• Urals and ESPO crude prices also reached their highest levels in more than three months, boosting Russian oil revenue.
• However, Russia’s refined product exports are falling. Moscow raised its 2026 crude export forecast by about 150,000 bpd while cutting refined product export guidance by roughly 500,000 bpd.
• Ukrainian drone strikes disrupted refineries, pushing more crude into exports and tightening domestic fuel supplies. Russia has suspended most diesel exports, with the restriction expected to continue into October.

Wells Fargo Sees US Rates at 5%, 10 Year Yield Up to 5.75% by 2027

• Wells Fargo Investment Institute raised its end 2027 federal funds rate forecast to 4.75% to 5.00%, from 4.00% to 4.25%.
• It also raised its US 10 year Treasury yield forecast to 5.25% to 5.75%, from 4.50% to 5.00%.
• The institute cut its 2027 gold target to $5,200 to $5,400 from $5,400 to $5,600.
• Wells Fargo downgraded S&P 500 information technology to Neutral from Overweight, while upgrading Industrials to Overweight from Neutral.

Trump Administration Weighs Plan to Ease US Russia Ties

• The Atlantic reported that Trump has agreed to advance an early stage proposal that could link Russia freeing political prisoners with US easing some economic sanctions.
• The proposal, developed by a US special envoy for Eastern Europe, aims to reintegrate Russia into the global economy and expand negotiations beyond Ukraine.
• Discussions reportedly include potential commercial cooperation involving oil, diesel, rare earths and other commodities.
• Trump also said last week that the US is negotiating a “large” potash deal with Belarus, with Russia involved in the talks.

Putin Envoy Dmitriev Holds “Constructive” US Talks on Ukraine, Energy Cooperation

• A US official said Putin’s envoy Kirill Dmitriev held “constructive” talks with US officials on possible paths toward ending the Ukraine war.
• The discussions also covered potential US Russia energy cooperation initiatives after the war, according to the official. Reuters reported energy issues and economic cooperation were on the agenda.
• Dmitriev’s visit followed the Trump Zelenskiy meeting in New York, where Zelenskiy said they discussed linking a possible ceasefire to energy related objectives.
• WTI crude touched $90 a barrel, down 2.25% intraday, while Brent fell below $96, down 2.42%.

Top 6 Indian IT Firms Cut H 1B Registrations 92% to 1,763

• TCS, Infosys, HCLTech, Wipro, LTIMindtree and Tech Mahindra filed just 1,763 H 1B registrations for FY27, down 92% from 21,919 the previous year, according to The Economic Times.
• A $103,265 fee on cap subject H 1B petitions and a new wage weighted lottery have made mid tier staffing assignments more expensive for outsourcers.
• Immigration experts say firms are shifting more work back to India and relying increasingly on AI.
• Overall eligible H 1B registrations have also fallen to a seven year low.

US Imposes 100% Pharma Tariff, India Gets Zero Duty on Select Drugs

• The US began applying a 100% tariff on patented pharmaceuticals on Tuesday under Section 232, expanding a levy first imposed on select firms in July.
• India and 19 other jurisdictions receive zero duty treatment for specialty medicines including orphan drugs, gene therapies and plasma derived treatments.
• Generic drugs remain exempt from the tariffs, a key distinction for India’s pharmaceutical industry.
• India exported $30.46 billion in pharmaceutical products in 2024 25.

UKMTO reports a ship was hit by an unknown projectile in the Strait of Hormuz last night, starting a fire.

Iran Warns No Regional Infrastructure Will Be Safe Without Security Guarantees

• Iran’s chief negotiator and Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf warned that regional infrastructure could face attacks if Iran’s security is not guaranteed.
• Ghalibaf said that if Iran cannot sell oil, other countries in the region will not be able to sell oil either.
• He added that without security guarantees for Iran, “no infrastructure will remain safe,” according to Iranian state media.

China Banks Hold $2.14 Trillion in External Assets, Net Assets $671.7 Billion

• China’s banking sector had $2.144 trillion in external financial assets and $1.473 trillion in external liabilities at end June 2026, according to SAFE.
• Net external assets stood at $671.7 billion, with foreign currency net assets of $747 billion and RMB net liabilities of $75.4 billion.
• Cross border deposits and loans accounted for $1.169 trillion, or 55% of external assets, while bonds stood at $667.6 billion.
• US dollar assets were the largest currency exposure at $983.3 billion, or 46% of external assets. Foreign banks accounted for $1.084 trillion of exposures.

Maharashtra Announces ₹45,000 Crore Drought Relief Package

• Maharashtra CM Devendra Fadnavis announced a ₹45,000 crore drought relief package, with ₹30,000 crore earmarked for direct crop loss payments to farmers.
• The state has declared drought in 265 of 358 talukas following an 18% rainfall deficit.
• The measures include loan restructuring, land revenue waivers and free electricity for small farm pumps.
• NCP-SP MLA Rohit Pawar warned of blocking the Samruddhi Mahamarg by October 12 if relief is not delivered, calling the crisis worse than the 1972 famine.

India Vehicle Registrations Surge 45%, EV Registrations Jump 126%

• India’s vehicle registrations rose 45% year on year in September 2026 so far, according to VAHAN data.
• Two wheeler registrations climbed 48%, while passenger vehicle registrations increased 41% amid festive demand.
• Pure EV registrations more than doubled, rising 126% year on year. TVS Motor led the electric two wheeler segment with over 26.6% market share.
• Hero MotoCorp and Maruti Suzuki gained market share during the Ganpati season, while Ola Electric’s EV share declined.

Japan 2 Year Bond Yield Nears 2%, Highest Level in 30 Years

• Japan’s 2 year government bond yield is approaching 2% for the first time in about three decades, as markets increasingly price sustained inflation and further BOJ tightening.
• The policy sensitive 2 year yield has doubled over the past 12 months and is now more than six times its level from the same period in 2024.
• Further BOJ tightening could depend on Thursday’s Tankan corporate survey, with Mizuho Financial saying strong capital expenditure data would strengthen the case for an October rate hike.

2026 El Niño Could Hit Record 4.1°C, Far Above 2015-16 Peak

• WMO forecasts the 2026-27 El Niño has reached very strong intensity, with nearly 100% probability of persisting through February 2027.
• September models project Niño 3.4 temperatures peaking around 4.1°C, well above the previous record of 2.75°C in 2015-16.
• China’s National Climate Center said equatorial Pacific SST indices have exceeded +3.0°C for the first time on record, with temperatures potentially reaching +3.2°C to +3.5°C around November.
• Indonesia is facing its worst wildfire season in a decade, while southern Africa faces drought risks and Peru prepares for flooding and landslides.

India Warns Monsoon Damage Could Hit Kharif Crops, Threaten Rabi Season

• Farm Secretary Atish Chandra warned that uneven monsoon rainfall has likely damaged kharif crops and left water shortages threatening the upcoming rabi season.
• Cumulative monsoon rainfall is 12% below normal, potentially the weakest since 2015, with more than half of India facing dry or drought conditions.
• Kharif sowing remains near the five year average, but rice, cotton, pulses and oilseeds are vulnerable to steep yield losses.
• Drought and flooding have damaged summer crops as India heads into the winter sowing season.

Morgan Stanley Sees 2 More Fed Hikes as Markets Price 100 Bps

• Morgan Stanley strategists expect one additional Fed rate hike in December and another in March following the September hike.
• Markets are pricing a more aggressive path, with roughly 100 bps of cumulative Fed tightening expected over the next 12 months, according to LSEG data.
• Morgan Stanley said uncertainty around Fed policy, economic growth, corporate bond issuance and oil prices is lifting market expectations.
• The bank expects actual Fed tightening to fall short of current market pricing as key policy factors become clearer later this year.

SEBI Settles Adani MPS Cases for ₹1.48 Crore

• SEBI settled minimum public shareholding violation proceedings involving Adani Enterprises, Adani Power, Adani Ports and Adani Energy Solutions for a combined ₹1.48 crore.
• The settlements were made without admission of guilt, according to NDTV.
• Separately, SEBI found no evidence that Vinod Adani controlled two FPIs that invested in listed Adani companies, Business Standard reported.
• The Supreme Court also dismissed a PIL by former journalist Ketan Tirodkar on alleged offshore fund routing into Indian equities, directing him to pursue a pending Bombay High Court review first.

Goldman Opens $100 Billion Treasury Fund to Crypto Firms

• Goldman Sachs is making its roughly $100 billion FTIXX Treasury fund available to institutional crypto firms through the Lynq settlement network, according to CoinDesk.
• Unlike BlackRock’s tokenised BUIDL fund, Goldman is keeping FTIXX in its traditional format and using Lynq as a distribution channel.
• More than 30 crypto native firms on Lynq, including Wintermute and Galaxy, can now use the fund to earn yield on idle cash between trades.
• The move expands institutional access to traditional Treasury fund yields without Goldman launching a blockchain based fund.

Diesel Supply Crisis Deepens as U.S. Prices Top $200 a Barrel Equivalent

• Brent crude rose after Trump rejected Iran’s proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, even as Middle East crude exports recover to their highest level since the war began.
• The IEA said US diesel prices topped $200 a barrel equivalent in early September, while Gulf and Russian diesel exports remain 1.6 million barrels per day below pre war levels.
• Societe Generale strategists said refined product markets have shifted from “merely tight to critical,” with US refinery utilisation near 98%.
• Analysts warn record diesel prices and strained refining capacity could pose a greater inflation risk than crude oil itself.
• Saudi Aramco is discussing a roughly $9/barrel discount on crude loaded off Oman to offset record freight costs caused by the Iran war.
• The move aims to regain Asian market share, as ADNOC gains ground by routing exports around the Strait of Hormuz.

Deutsche Bank Warns Rising Yields and Debt Are Limiting Policy Options

• Deutsche Bank warned that surging global bond yields and rising debt levels are reducing policymakers’ ability to cushion future economic shocks.
• The US 10 year Treasury yield hit its highest level since 2007 last week, driven by strong US data, hawkish Fed signals and heavy bond issuance.
• Treasury yields rose further as oil climbed above $106 a barrel after Iran rejected calls to soften its demands on the Strait of Hormuz, raising global inflation concerns.
• The yield curve narrowed to just 17 basis points, nearing inversion, while markets are pricing in three further Fed rate hikes next year.

Iran Says Hormuz Reopening Depends on Conditions as Trump Denies Offer

• Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said he met Qatar mediators on Monday to discuss proposals for the US and conditions for reopening the Strait of Hormuz.
• Araghchi said Iran has conveyed its conditions to Washington and the international community, with Qatar set to relay any US response to Tehran.
• He said he will return to Tehran within hours rather than remain in New York awaiting a US response. Communications with Qatar and Pakistan mediators have entered a more serious phase.
• Trump denied an Axios report that he offered Iran sanctions waivers and release of frozen funds, saying: “I didn’t offer them anything.”

Trump Signals Iran Sanctions Relief if Nuclear Progress Is Made

• President Donald Trump would consider easing sanctions and releasing frozen Iranian funds if Tehran makes concrete progress on its nuclear programme, according to Al Jazeera.
• US officials said Washington and Tehran are holding “active, constructive” talks through intermediaries, but a deal would require progress on nuclear issues.
• Trump rejected Iran’s proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz as unacceptable but expects further talks this week.
• WTI and Brent crude briefly fell about $2 to $92.02 and $105.65 a barrel amid renewed hopes for negotiations.
• Saudi outlet Alhadath reports sources say mediators are pushing Iran to make concessions on its nuclear program. The outlet also cites sources claiming Iran has agreed to stop uranium enrichment in exchange for US sanctions relief.

Aramco Considers $9 a Barrel Discount on Gulf of Oman Crude

• Saudi Aramco is considering cutting the official selling price for crude loaded in the Gulf of Oman to offset surging shipping costs and attract Asian refiners.
• Sources said discussions with Asian buyers include potential discounts of around $9 per barrel for mid to late October cargoes.
• Gulf of Oman barrels have recently traded at a $10 to $20 per barrel premium to monthly OSP after Saudi Arabia increased exports from inshore fields.
• The potential discount could make Saudi crude more competitive as freight costs rise.

Capital Economics Says US Treasury Sell Off May Be Overdone

• Capital Economics economist James Reilly said the recent sell off in US Treasuries looks somewhat overdone.
• He attributed the rise in the 10 year Treasury yield, now near its June 2007 peak, mainly to higher oil prices and a stronger US economy rather than AI issuance or fiscal stress.
• Reilly expects Fed tightening to be less than markets currently price and sees the 10 year yield falling to about 4.25% by end 2027.
• He said AI linked bond issuance could put some upward pressure on yields, but likely less than recent reports suggest and could be offset by shifts in monetary policy expectations.

JD Vance Says Firms Cutting US Jobs Should Not Get H 1B Replacements

• US Vice President JD Vance said companies laying off American workers should not be allowed to seek H 1B visa replacements, calling the practice “ridiculous.”
• His remarks follow a September 18 executive order directing federal agencies to consider employer layoffs when reviewing H 1B applications.
• Vance also defended the administration’s $100,000 H 1B fee, saying the programme should attract highly skilled workers who add value to the US economy.
• He said the administration is working to stop companies from claiming labour shortages after cutting thousands of American jobs.

Saudi Arabia Resumes Oil Exports Through East West Pipeline

• Saudi Arabia has repaired its key East West oil pipeline after a drone attack earlier this month and resumed exports through the line, according to a source.
• Saudi Aramco spent last week testing and repressurising the pipeline, with overseas shipments now underway.
• The restart restores a key alternative export route and comes alongside increased Saudi crude flows through the Strait of Hormuz.
• The additional supply could ease pressure on buyers after some European customers were told they would receive no crude allocations next month under long term contracts.

Iran’s Khamenei Vows to Defend Strait of Hormuz

• Iran’s Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei pledged to firmly defend the Strait of Hormuz in a statement marking Defense Week and the second anniversary of Hassan Nasrallah’s death.
• Khamenei said Iranian support for the state over the past seven months has strengthened military morale.
• He also praised Nasrallah’s legacy and said Hezbollah and Iran’s regional resistance network would continue their struggle.
• The statement comes as tensions over Hormuz remain high after the US rejected Iran’s proposal for a seven day roadmap to reopen the waterway.

Nvidia Adds $150 Billion to Buyback, $235 Billion Now Authorized

• Nvidia’s board approved an additional $150 billion share buyback authorization, bringing remaining authorized repurchases to $235 billion.
• The company expects to complete the remaining buybacks by the end of fiscal 2028.
• CEO Jensen Huang said Nvidia’s growth is being driven by AI and accelerated computing, with strong cash generation supporting investment and shareholder returns.
• Nvidia shares rose 1.3% in premarket trading after the announcement.

QatarEnergy Extends LNG Force Majeure Through November Over Hormuz Disruptions

• QatarEnergy has extended force majeure on LNG shipments to Asia and Europe through November, citing continued disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz.
• The company notified Pakistan and Bangladesh this week and told at least one Indian buyer that deliveries will remain suspended.
• Italy’s Edison said its LNG supply will remain under force majeure until early December.
• QatarEnergy has issued monthly force majeure notices and cancelled scheduled deliveries since hostilities involving Iran began.

India Orders Captive Coal Plants to Run Full Capacity as Stocks Fall 50%

• India has ordered companies with captive coal fired power capacity above 50 MW to operate plants at full load and sell surplus electricity through power exchanges.
• The directive covers steel, fertiliser, refinery and cement companies as coal stocks at power plants decline rapidly.
• Grid connected coal inventories have fallen more than 50% year on year to their lowest level in nearly three years.
• The government also extended its directive for Tata Power’s 4 GW Gujarat plant to run at full capacity through December as weak hydro output and lower evening solar generation pressure the grid.

US Official Warns H 1B Visa System Could Look “Very Different” Within a Year

• Labour Department Inspector General Anthony D’Esposito warned the H 1B programme could be dramatically reshaped as nationwide investigations into alleged fraud and human trafficking expand.
• Visa applications linked to Cognizant and Cloudera have reportedly been suspended as part of the probe.
• D’Esposito said investigators “have handcuffs ready” for those abusing the foreign labour visa system.
• H 1B visa issuances fell sharply in FY26 after the Trump administration imposed a $100,000 fee and increased scrutiny of employer layoffs.

Trump Says Iran War Could End Soon, Diesel Export Ban Under Serious Consideration

• Trump said the US is “winning it very big” against Iran and expects the war to end soon, after which he said oil prices could fall sharply.
• Asked about strikes before the midterms, Trump said they remain possible but declined to comment further.
• Trump said the US is “thinking about” a diesel export ban “very seriously” and “may do it.” The proposal comes as US diesel prices remain at record highs.
• On AI, Trump said the US is about a year to a year and a half ahead of China and that “there is nobody in third place,” while describing AI as potentially bigger than the industrial revolution.

Saudi Foreign Minister to Meet Rubio in Washington as Houthi Hostilities Escalate

• Saudi Arabia’s foreign minister will travel to Washington on Monday to meet US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, according to media reports.
• The talks will cover bilateral relations and key regional and international issues as Saudi Houthi hostilities intensify.
• Earlier reports said Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman sought US military assistance for strikes on Houthi targets.
• Washington reportedly declined to conduct airstrikes but agreed to provide intelligence and targeting support.

US Iran Talks Stall as 10 Year Treasury Yield Hits 5.208%

• US Iran peace talks have stalled, pushing oil prices higher and US Treasury yields toward recent multi year highs.
• The 2 year Treasury yield rose 4.4 bps to 4.907%, while the 10 year gained 2.8 bps to 5.208% and the 30 year rose 1.7 bps to 5.518%.
• WTI crude jumped more than 2% to $93.18 a barrel, while Brent rose above 2% to $99.38.
• Nasdaq 100 futures fell 0.8%, while S&P 500 and Dow futures declined 0.4%. Citi said the lack of Treasury auctions this week could offer some relief, but sustained oil price pressure could limit any bond rally.

Maharashtra Declares 265 of 358 Talukas Drought Affected

• Maharashtra government declared 265 of the state’s 358 talukas drought affected, covering around 74% of all talukas.
• The government activated Trigger 1 under its drought management framework, which applies when rainfall is more than 25% below normal along with a 21 day dry spell.
• Farmers will get full exemption from land revenue, while recovery of agriculture loans will be stayed and crop loans will be restructured.
• The government also announced relief on agricultural electricity bills, no disconnections for farm pumps in water scarce villages and expanded employment support under the Employment Guarantee Scheme.
• Authorities have been directed to immediately assess crop damage using photographs and GPS coordinates, while farmers and agricultural workers will receive food grains.

India Venezuela Energy Ties Gain Momentum as Crude Diversification Accelerates

• External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar met Venezuelan Foreign Minister Félix Plasencia González at the UN General Assembly in New York and said energy ties are “gaining momentum.”
• The meeting comes as India seeks to diversify crude supplies amid disruptions affecting Gulf shipping and pressure on Russian oil purchases.
• Venezuelan crude shipments to India have risen from around 2.8 lakh to 4 lakh barrels per day, while Indian refiners are also exploring supplies from Brazil, Mexico and Africa.
• Russia remains India’s largest crude supplier, but volumes have declined amid new US legislation authorising tariffs of up to 100% on buyers of Russian oil.

VLCC Freight Rates Surge 800% to $723,000 a Day

• VLCC daily freight rates reached roughly $723,000 by mid September, up more than 800% year on year, according to Xclusiv Shipbrokers.
• Only 17 commodity vessels crossed the Strait of Hormuz last weekend, down from 37 a week earlier, as US Iran tensions persist.
• Secondhand tanker values have surged by up to 61% as tighter vessel availability pushes shipping costs higher.
• Brent crude near $105 a barrel is also adding to inflation concerns and expectations of further Fed rate hikes.

Japan 2 Year JGB Yield Nears 2% as BOJ Hike Bets Intensify

• Japan’s 2 year JGB yield rose 4 bps to 1.975%, its highest since 1995 and close to the key 2% level.
• The 5 year yield climbed 3 bps to 2.43% as markets increased bets on faster BOJ tightening.
• Trump reportedly told Japanese PM Takaichi that the weak yen is making trade difficult for the US, according to Nikkei.
• Swap markets now price roughly a 30% chance of another 25 bps BOJ hike at the October 29 to 30 meeting.

UFBU Defers 28–30 September Bank Strike After Late Night Talks

• The United Forum of Bank Unions deferred its nationwide bank strike scheduled for September 28 to 30 after late night talks with the Indian Banks’ Association.
• The strike was planned over the demand for a five day working week and had prompted RBI approved Sunday openings at public sector banks.
• The core demand remains unresolved, while UFBU has warned of an indefinite strike from October 26 if the issue is not settled.
• The outcome of Sunday’s talks and whether a concrete agreement was reached remains unclear.

Iranian Missile Struck US Vessel, Wounding 8 Marines, NBC Reports

• An Iranian anti ship cruise missile struck a US vessel operating in the Strait of Hormuz on September 14, injuring eight US Marines, NBC News reported, citing three US officials.
• The Marines suffered injuries including smoke inhalation and possible traumatic brain injuries, with headaches and concussion symptoms reported.
• Seven of the Marines were enlisted personnel and one was an officer. They were part of a battalion landing team operating ashore and were not aboard a US Navy ship.
• The Marines reportedly returned to duty shortly after the attack. The Pentagon had not previously disclosed the September 14 incident.

Trump Says He Is Considering Resuming Strikes on Iran as 22M Barrels Cross Hormuz

• President Donald Trump said he has been considering resuming US strikes on Iran, according to Axios.
• Trump said US forces are assisting major oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, with more than 20 million barrels moving last weekend.
• A US defense official said about 22 million barrels were exported through the Strait on Friday night.
• The comments come after Trump rejected Iran’s latest proposal on Hormuz, while indirect talks through regional mediators remain ongoing.

Trump Expects More US Iran Talks This Week Despite Rejecting Tehran Proposal

• President Donald Trump told Axios he expects further US Iran talks this week despite rejecting Iran’s latest proposal conveyed during indirect negotiations in New York.
• “They want to make a deal, but it is not the deal I want. They overplayed their hand,” Trump said.
• Trump also said, when asked about resuming strikes: “I am always thinking about it.”
• Axios reported that US and Iranian positions remain far apart, with Qatar and other mediators continuing efforts to revive negotiations.

Trump Administration Proposes Ending 60 Day H 1B Grace Period

• The Trump administration has proposed ending the 60 day grace period for H 1B workers who lose their jobs.
• The current rule allows eligible H 1B workers up to 60 consecutive days in the US after job loss to find a new employer, change immigration status or prepare to leave the country.
• The proposed change could significantly shorten the period available to affected H 1B workers to secure new employment or change their immigration status.

UK Arrests 5 Men Near RAF Fairford, 85 Households Evacuated

• UK counter terrorism police said five men were arrested near RAF Fairford on suspicion of offences under the Explosives Act and preparing a terrorist act.
• Around 85 households in nearby Whelford were advised to evacuate as Army explosive ordnance experts examined three vehicles.
• RAF Fairford hosts US Air Force operations and has been used by US forces during the conflict with Iran.
• Police said the investigation is in its early stages and have not established a link between the arrests and the airbase or Iran.