The Japanese government has issued a strong warning, saying urgent disaster preparedness is needed to reduce the devastating potential impact of a Nankai Trough earthquake, which experts fear could kill nearly 300,000 people and cause up to $2 trillion in damage.
According to recent assessments, the probability of a major earthquake in the Nankai Trough occurring within the next 30 years is now estimated at 75% to 82%, raising serious concerns for both residents and authorities. This undersea trench, located off Japan’s Pacific coast, is one of the most dangerous seismic zones in the world.
In March 2025, the government updated its official estimate, saying a Nankai Trough megaquake and tsunami could lead to as many as 298,000 deaths and destroy entire coastal communities. The region has a long history of such quakes, striking every 100 to 200 years — the last one was recorded in 1946.
Although a national earthquake preparedness plan was introduced in 2014 by the Central Disaster Management Council, which aimed to reduce the death toll by 80%, the current measures would only cut fatalities by about 20%, according to Kyodo News.
To address the rising Japan megaquake risk, the government announced a revised disaster plan this week. The new plan calls for:
Building more tsunami evacuation towers and seawalls in high-risk areas
Increasing the frequency of earthquake and tsunami drills
Educating the public on earthquake safety and emergency response
Enhancing coordination between national and local governments, companies, and NGOs
> “It is vital for the nation, municipalities, businesses, and local communities to work together to save as many lives as possible,” said Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba during a government meeting.
The Nankai Trough is an 800-kilometer-long (500-mile) undersea fault line where two tectonic plates meet. One plate is sliding beneath the other in a geological process known as subduction, which causes pressure to build over decades — eventually triggering massive earthquakes.
In August 2024, the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) issued a brief advisory about a spike in earthquake probability, but it was withdrawn after a week. Despite this, scientists remain concerned, emphasizing that earthquake prediction is still highly uncertain, and preparation is the only defense.
Over 900 Earthquakes Shake Japan’s Remote Tokara Islands
A small island chain in southern Japan, known as the Tokara Islands, has experienced over 900 earthquakes in just two weeks, according to the Japan Meteorological Agency. The strong seismic activity has left many local residents sleepless, although no major damage has been reported so far.
The agency held an emergency press conference on Wednesday after a magnitude 5.5 earthquake hit the area around 3:30 pm. Officials say the tremors have been ongoing since June 21 and continue to affect the sea region near the islands, located south of Kyushu. However, they currently cannot predict when the earthquakes will stop.
What You Need to Know:
Nankai Trough earthquake risk now stands at 75–82% in 30 years
Estimated casualties could reach 298,000 people
Possible economic damage: $2 trillion
Japan’s current disaster plans would reduce deaths by only 20%
Government pushes for more aggressive earthquake safety measures
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