Nvidia, Cisco and Other Tech Giants Donate Millions to Trump’s White House Banquet Hall Project
- Nvidia and Cisco confirmed donations worth millions of dollars toward the renovation of US President Donald Trump’s White House banquet hall, CNBC reported.
- Nvidia said its support for the United States was independent of commercial interests.
- Cisco and ServiceNow each confirmed donations of $5 million, while Nvidia and Apple reportedly pledged $25 million each, among the largest contributions.
- Amazon, Palantir, Meta and Microsoft were also reported to have donated millions of dollars to the project.
- The contributions are being channelled through a nonprofit trust, with donors receiving pledge forms for the “Donald J. Trump Banquet Hall.”
- The donations have drawn scrutiny from US lawmakers and experts, who have called for greater transparency and raised concerns about potential conflicts of interest involving policy decisions and federal government contracts.
Asian Markets Rebound: South Korea and Japan End Losing Streaks Despite Weekly Losses
- South Korea: The KOSPI rose 2.05% to 5,668.05 on Friday, ending a seven-session losing streak as bargain hunting lifted stocks from a six-month low.
- Despite the rebound, the KOSPI plunged 14.5% for the week, marking its third consecutive weekly decline and the steepest weekly fall since October 2008.
- Thursday’s nearly 8% crash followed a sell-off in technology stocks triggered by higher-than-expected US inflation data and concerns over the sustainability of AI investment.
- Japan: The Nikkei 225 gained 1.39% to 65,324.29, ending a six-session losing streak as AI-related stocks recovered. However, the index fell 5.37% for the week.
- The broader Topix rose 1.67% to 4,066 but declined 0.95% over the week.
- Investors remain cautious ahead of corporate earnings and next month’s US midterm elections, while assessing the outlook for AI-related investments and potential changes in US policy.
PM Modi to Visit Canada on December 11–12 as India and Canada Push to Finalise CEPA
- Prime Minister Narendra Modi will visit Canada on December 11–12, the High Commission of India in Ottawa announced on Thursday.
- Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney confirmed the dates following a phone call with Modi on Tuesday.
- Both leaders reaffirmed their commitment to concluding the Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) soon.
- India and Canada aim to double bilateral trade by 2030, with officials hoping to sign the trade agreement during Modi’s visit.
- Canada is seeking to diversify its trade partnerships amid strained relations with the Trump administration, adding momentum to efforts to strengthen economic ties with India.
Advertisement
🔴 Breaking
Union Bank Warns RBI Could Raise Rates by 50 bps in December
- A Union Bank of India report warned that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) could raise interest rates before its December policy meeting, with a cumulative 50-basis-point hike possible by December.
- India’s wholesale price index (WPI) inflation rose to 11.39% in September, up from 9.92% in August, according to official data.
- The report highlighted persistent wholesale inflation and pressure on the rupee as factors that could influence the RBI’s policy decisions.
- Union Bank also warned that bond yields could rise further as the RBI withdraws liquidity, despite the rupee’s recent recovery.
- The outlook follows the Monetary Policy Committee’s reported repo rate increase to 5.5% on October 7.
MSCI Proposes Removing Indonesia from Emerging Markets Index; Jakarta Composite Plunges 11%
- MSCI said Indonesia no longer meets its Emerging Markets eligibility criteria and proposed removing the country from its widely tracked index suite, raising concerns about potential portfolio outflows.
- Indonesia’s Jakarta Composite Index plunged 11.4% intraday to 5,193.22, its lowest level since early November 2020.
- Angus Mackintosh of Alethia Capital called the proposed move overly severe, arguing that Indonesia has taken steps to improve market transparency and free-float requirements.
- Mackintosh said Indonesia needs stronger enforcement, including strict sanctions and fines against participants involved in alleged collusive market manipulation, to address MSCI’s concerns.
- The Indonesia Stock Exchange said it would take MSCI’s warning seriously, provide stronger evidence of reforms and work with relevant authorities to improve enforcement.
- The exchange urged investors to remain rational, saying listed companies remain fundamentally sound. Bank Indonesia also pledged continued intervention in spot and offshore currency markets to support rupiah stability and said it would buy government bonds in the secondary market.
US Treasury Says Japan Has Exited Prolonged Deflation, Calls for Yen and Policy Adjustment
- US Deputy Treasury Secretary Irene Brown said Japan has moved beyond the prolonged deflation that persisted for more than a decade, signalling the need for adjustments in the yen’s exchange rate and monetary policy.
- Speaking at the IMF–World Bank annual meetings in Bangkok, Brown said US and Japanese officials are coordinating closely to maintain market stability and orderly foreign-exchange trading.
- She said both countries would continue strengthening policy coordination.
- Brown warned that sharp, disorderly currency movements could trigger broader market spillovers, force investors to unwind positions and amplify global volatility.
- Such disruptions could also increase borrowing costs in the United States and other economies.
Advertisement
Fed Chair Warsh Highlights Investment Boom, Says No Rate Decision Is Predetermined
- Federal Reserve Chair Warsh said the global economy is experiencing structural growth and a surge in investment, describing stronger investment as a key driver of the economic upturn.
- He attributed the investment surge to sound policies and said artificial intelligence is likely to affect economic demand before its impact on supply becomes apparent.
- Warsh said global developments since the September FOMC meeting have largely matched expectations, while acknowledging that US monetary policy and international economic conditions influence each other.
- He stressed that the Fed remains committed to price stability and will assess changes in output, employment and inflation when making policy decisions.
- Warsh said the October and December FOMC meetings will be important, but cautioned against predicting their outcomes or assuming a predetermined policy path for the remainder of 2026.
- Fed Chairman Warsh: “I don’t care about leaving a legacy; my priority is ensuring policies are made correctly.”
- Warsh: The Fed will strive to give equal importance to its other responsibilities over the next 100 days.
CME FedWatch: 71.8% Probability of No Fed Rate Change in October
- According to CME FedWatch, markets assign a 71.8% probability to the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged at its October meeting, while the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate hike stands at 28.2%.
- By December, the probability of rates remaining unchanged falls to 7.2%.
- Markets assign a 67.4% probability to a cumulative 25-basis-point rate hike by December.
- The probability of a cumulative 50-basis-point rate hike by December stands at 25.4%.
US Military Reportedly Prepares Iran Strike Plans Involving MOAB Bomb
- The US military has drawn up contingency plans for potential strikes on Iranian energy and nuclear facilities, including possible use of the GBU-43/B Massive Ordnance Air Blast (MOAB), CNN reported, citing officials.
- The 21,600-pound bomb is reportedly being considered for potential operations if President Donald Trump resumes military action against Iran.
- Sources cited by CNN expressed doubts that the weapon could penetrate deeply buried facilities beneath granite at Iran’s Pickaxe Mountain site.
- Officials also reportedly warned that the bomb’s large blast radius could pose risks to nearby civilians.
- Trump pledged on October 8 not to attack Iran before the November 3 US midterm elections, but advisers reportedly remain uncertain whether that commitment is final.
Advertisement
RBI May Have Used Half of $140 Billion War Chest to Support Rupee
- Economists at six banks told Reuters that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) may have deployed roughly half of the more than $140 billion raised through special foreign-exchange inflow measures since June.
- Estimates suggest the RBI has used around $75–80 billion through spot dollar sales and currency swaps to support the rupee amid elevated oil prices and foreign capital outflows.
- India’s foreign-exchange reserves fell to $734.6 billion in the week ended October 2, around $51 billion below their September peak.
- The RBI’s derivatives curbs introduced on October 10 helped lift the rupee to a one-month high, according to the report.
- Union Bank of India said a 50-basis-point interest-rate hike in December could not be ruled out, highlighting concerns over continued pressure on the currency.
IMF Chief Warns AI Market Correction Could Trigger Wider Financial Risks
- IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva warned on October 15 that a severe market correction could spread across the highly leveraged and interconnected artificial intelligence ecosystem.
- In an essay published during the IMF and World Bank Annual Meetings in Bangkok, she highlighted debt-funded, circular dealmaking between major technology companies and AI developers.
- The IMF’s Global Financial Stability Report separately cautioned policymakers against complacency over a potential pullback in AI investment and equity valuations.
- Georgieva described AI as a “slow-moving tsunami” for labour markets, warning that the technology could eventually affect around 40% of jobs worldwide.
- The warnings highlight concerns over AI-related financial exposure, elevated valuations and the potential economic consequences of rapid technological disruption.
China Becomes India’s Largest Trading Partner as Bilateral Trade Jumps 29%
- China emerged as India’s largest trading partner in April–September FY2026-27, with bilateral trade rising nearly 29% year-on-year to $91.76 billion, according to Commerce Ministry data.
- The increase was driven primarily by higher imports from China, widening India’s trade deficit with Beijing.
- India’s overall merchandise trade deficit reached $177.64 billion during the first half of FY2026-27.
- New Delhi and Beijing are discussing the widening trade imbalance and concerns over supply-chain dependence.
- Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal said efforts to rebuild economic ties between the two countries remain ongoing.
Advertisement
RBI’s New Derivatives Curbs Trigger Sharp Fall in Rupee Forward Trading
- Indian lenders have told the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) that trading in rupee forwards has plunged following new derivatives restrictions introduced on October 10, Bloomberg reported.
- The rules reportedly require banks to maintain cash reserves equivalent to 20% of covered contracts and cap unverified hedging positions at $5 million.
- Economists estimate that the RBI may have spent up to $80 billion defending the rupee since June 8, potentially using more than half of its estimated $140 billion intervention capacity.
- The restrictions aim to curb speculative activity and manage pressure on the rupee, but lenders say they have significantly reduced market activity.
- Analysts have discussed possible policy responses, including interest-rate increases and tax cuts, amid continued pressure on the currency.
SEBI Overhauls Closing Auction Session; New Rules to Take Effect from December 7
- The Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) announced a comprehensive overhaul of the Closing Auction Session (CAS) framework for the equity cash market to improve transparency and price discovery.
- The revised CAS will operate as a dedicated 10-minute session from 3:30 p.m. to 3:40 p.m. on all trading days. Order entry will close randomly between 3:38 p.m. and 3:40 p.m. through a system-driven mechanism.
- The reference price for CAS will be based on the volume-weighted average price (VWAP) of trades executed during the final 15 minutes of the Continuous Trading Session. If no trades occur, the day's last traded price or the previous closing price will apply.
- On expiry days, index derivatives settlement prices will be based on the underlying index value calculated using constituent stocks' VWAPs during the final 30 minutes of the cash-market session. Stock derivatives settlement prices will use the underlying stock's VWAP over the same period.
- Stock exchanges must calculate and disseminate indicative underlying values and VWAPs in real time during the final 30 minutes of the Continuous Trading Session.
- Unexecuted eligible limit orders will carry forward into CAS, while eligible iceberg orders will transition as fully disclosed limit orders. Index derivatives trading will continue until 3:45 p.m. on regular days, but expiring index contracts will stop trading at 3:30 p.m. on expiry days.
IMF Forecast: Japan Could Fall to Sixth-Largest Economy in 2027
- The International Monetary Fund (IMF) reportedly projects that Japan’s economy will fall from fourth to sixth place globally in 2027, as India and the UK overtake it, according to Japanese media reports.
- Japan’s slower economic growth compared with India and the UK is one factor behind the projected decline.
- The continued depreciation of the Japanese yen is also reducing Japan’s GDP when measured in US dollars.
- The projected shift highlights how exchange-rate movements and differences in economic growth can change countries’ rankings by nominal GDP.
- Some Japanese social media users have criticised the country’s political leadership over the longer-term economic outlook.
Advertisement
Oil Tanker Catches Fire in Eastern Strait of Hormuz, Iranian Navy Says
- Iran’s Navy reported detecting a fire aboard an oil tanker in the eastern waters of the Strait of Hormuz on October 15.
- According to a statement published on its military website, the tanker was spotted during routine patrol and monitoring operations.
- The Iranian Navy claimed the vessel had switched off its tracking system and attempted to cross a designated restricted area.
- Iran’s Navy asserted that it maintains complete control over the eastern waters of the Strait of Hormuz.
- The incident could raise concerns about maritime security and oil shipments through the strategically important waterway. The cause of the fire and the tanker’s identity were not specified in the statement.
US and Israel Reportedly Discuss Potential Military Strike Against Iran
- Israel’s Channel 12 reported on October 15, citing Israeli security officials, that US and Israeli discussions on potential military action against Iran are intensifying.
- According to the report, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu spoke by phone with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio to discuss plans for a possible strike.
- Israeli and Western intelligence assessments reportedly indicate that Iran is undertaking significant military measures.
- However, Israeli and US officials told Channel 12 that the situation had not yet reached the point where immediate military action was considered necessary.
- The report signals heightened regional tensions, although no immediate military operation was confirmed.
Tesla Unveils Roadster Specifications, Claims 0–60 mph in Under 0.6 Seconds
- Tesla has released performance specifications for its upcoming Roadster sports car, outlining three configurations: Performance, Thrust and Rocket.
- Performance: A road-legal, two-seat version featuring active aerodynamics and a multi-mode suction system, with a claimed 0–60 mph time of under 1.6 seconds.
- Thrust: A two-seat, track-ready version featuring a rear-mounted cooled-air thruster and multi-mode suction system, with a claimed 0–60 mph time of under 0.9 seconds.
- Rocket: A single-seat configuration featuring a surrounding cooled-air thruster, designed to enable forward and backward acceleration, lateral rotation and flight, according to Tesla's specifications.
- Tesla claims a driving range of more than 300 miles and a top speed exceeding 230 mph for the Rocket version.
- The Rocket configuration has a claimed 0–60 mph acceleration time of under 0.59 seconds, making it the fastest of the three announced versions.
Advertisement
US 30-Year Mortgage Rate Holds at 7.4% for Eight Consecutive Weeks
- The average US 30-year fixed mortgage rate remained at 7.4%, according to Freddie Mac, staying near its highest level since November 2023.
- The rate is up from 6.27% during the same period last year and has risen by a cumulative 75 basis points over eight weeks.
- Rising borrowing costs are weighing on housing demand and forcing some sellers to reduce asking prices.
- Pending US home sales fell 4% month-on-month in September, marking their largest decline in more than three years and their lowest level since 2014, excluding the early pandemic period, according to Redfin.
- Bright MLS chief economist Lisa Sturtevant expects high mortgage rates, persistent inflation and weak consumer confidence to slow the housing market this autumn.
- Sturtevant warned that annual existing-home sales could fall below 4 million for the first time since the 1990s.
US Expands Sanctions on Iran and Cuba, Issues New Licences for Lukoil Transactions
- The US Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) announced new sanctions on October 15 targeting 16 Iranian individuals and several companies and financial institutions.
- The targeted entities include Iraq’s International Development Investment and Finance Bank, Chabahar International Offshore Bank, Jazire International Bank and several currency exchange companies.
- OFAC also added Cuba’s International Commercial Bank (BICSA) to its sanctions list.
- The US Treasury issued two general licences authorising specified transactions involving Lukoil retail fuel stations outside Russia and Lukoil entities in Bulgaria.
- A separate general licence allows the orderly termination of transactions involving the International Development Investment and Finance Bank.
- US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Washington would continue increasing economic pressure on Iran and targeting financial channels it believes support the Iranian regime.
G7 and G20 Finance Leaders See No Immediate Financial Stability Risk from AI Sell-Off
- Finance leaders attending the G7 and G20 meetings believe the recent AI-driven market sell-off poses no immediate threat to global financial stability, according to a Japanese Finance Ministry official.
- Discussions took place during this week's IMF annual meetings in Bangkok.
- Officials noted that the global economy has demonstrated resilience to external shocks.
- Policymakers nevertheless stressed the need to remain vigilant and monitor potential risks to the financial system.
Advertisement
Germany Plans Major AI Partnership with Nvidia; Siemens and Audi Among Participants
- Germany is planning a large-scale AI collaboration with US chipmaker Nvidia to accelerate industrial AI adoption and strengthen its global competitiveness, according to Handelsblatt.
- Around 12 German companies are expected to participate, including Siemens, Audi and AI startup Black Forest Labs.
- The initiative will focus on physical AI, including technologies used to train robots and autonomous vehicles.
- A second objective is to develop high-performance industrial AI models capable of competing internationally.
- The German federal government is reportedly prepared to invest hundreds of millions of euros in computing infrastructure and AI model training.
- Nvidia is expected to contribute technical expertise, including sending engineers to support the project.
IEA Members to Release Remaining 100 Million Barrels of Oil Reserves
- The International Energy Agency (IEA) said member countries have agreed to accelerate the release of the remaining 100 million barrels from the emergency stock release announced in March.
- Members initially committed to releasing 400 million barrels, with 330 million barrels released so far.
- The remaining releases include 20 million barrels of diesel, which the IEA said should be deployed as soon as possible.
- Some member countries have already released more oil than initially pledged, while others plan additional releases.
- The IEA urged countries with oil production and refining capacity to increase supplies of crude oil and refined products, particularly diesel.
- The agency reaffirmed its readiness to take further measures to address global energy-market disruptions linked to the Strait of Hormuz crisis.
US September PPI Jumps 6.3% YoY, Signalling Persistent Inflation Pressure
- US producer prices rose 1.3% month-on-month and 6.3% year-on-year in September, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
- Core PPI, excluding food and energy, increased 0.7% MoM and 5.0% YoY.
- Rising fuel prices were a key driver of the increase, indicating continued energy-driven inflationary pressure.
- Separate data showed a key consumer-price measure exceeding forecasts, while a six-month input-price expectations gauge reached its highest level since 2022.
- Persistent price pressures could complicate the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy outlook and keep interest rates higher for longer.
Advertisement
RBI Clarifies FX Derivatives Rules; Market-Making Exempt
- The Reserve Bank of India clarified that its recent FX derivatives rules apply only to hedges linked to current-account transactions, such as import and export cash flows.
- The rules do not restrict market-making activities by banks.
- Banks must maintain FX-risk reserves when using derivatives to hedge asset and liability exposures involving purchases of foreign currency against rupees.
- Transactions involving the sale of foreign currency are exempt from this reserve requirement.
- HDFC Securities FX analyst Dilip Parmar said the clarification should ease the burden on banks and could lower longer-dated USD/INR forward premia, which reflect currency-hedging costs.
US Producer Prices Surge 6.3% YoY in September; Retail Sales Data Mixed
- Producer Price Index (PPI): US PPI rose 6.3% year-on-year in September, above market expectations of 5.3%. Monthly PPI increased 1.3%, compared with expectations of 0.5%.
- Core PPI: Core producer prices climbed 5% year-on-year and 0.7% month-on-month, both above market forecasts.
- Retail Sales: US retail sales rose 0.8% month-on-month in September, exceeding the expected 0.3% increase but slowing from the previous month's revised 1.2% growth.
- Jobless Claims: Initial jobless claims came in at 199,000 for the week ending October 10, slightly below expectations of 200,000. The four-week moving average rose to 198,500.
- New York Manufacturing: The New York Fed Manufacturing Index jumped to 25.5 in October, up from 7.6 in the previous month and above expectations of 10.25.
- Philadelphia Manufacturing: The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index fell to 20.9 from 37.8, below expectations of 28.4. The New Orders Index dropped to 4.3 from 29.2, while the Employment Index declined to 9.1 from 11.8.
India’s Net Direct Tax Collection Rises 13.21% to Rs 13.38 Lakh Crore Till October 14
- Net collections grow: India’s net direct tax collection increased 13.21% year-on-year to Rs 13.38 lakh crore between April 1 and October 14 of FY27, according to Income Tax Department data.
- Corporate tax leads growth: Net corporate tax collection rose 20.58% to over Rs 5.99 lakh crore.
- Non-corporate taxes increase: Net non-corporate tax collection grew 5.83% to approximately Rs 6.92 lakh crore.
- STT collections surge: Securities transaction tax (STT) collection jumped 52% year-on-year to Rs 46,840 crore.
- Gross collections rise: Gross direct tax collection increased 15% to Rs 16.03 lakh crore, comprising Rs 7.53 lakh crore in corporate taxes and Rs 8.03 lakh crore in non-corporate taxes.
- Refunds increase: Tax refunds rose 24.22% year-on-year to Rs 2.65 lakh crore, moderating the growth in net collections.
Advertisement
SpaceX’s Starlink Mobile Push Sends US Telecom Stocks Tumbling
- New competition threat: SpaceX’s acquisition of wireless spectrum could enable Starlink to provide mobile services directly via satellite, potentially positioning it as a major competitor in the US telecom market.
- Telecom stocks plunge: Verizon, AT&T and T-Mobile US shares recorded double-digit declines on Friday amid concerns over the competitive threat.
- Treasury yields add pressure: Rising US Treasury yields have weakened the appeal of telecom stocks, which investors traditionally favour for predictable growth and high dividend yields.
- Industry concerns grow: Third Bridge telecom analyst John Conca said competition risk is emerging in an unprecedented way, with investors concerned that the disruption could be only beginning.
🔴 Breaking
India Says First Phase of US Trade Deal Finalised; Agreement Expected to Be Signed Soon
- First phase completed: India’s Commerce Secretary said the first phase of the India-US trade agreement has been finalised, with negotiations progressing in the right direction.
- India is very close to finalising a trade agreement with the US, with legal work on the deal currently underway, according to the Commerce Secretary.
- Deal nearing conclusion: Officials expect negotiations to conclude soon, paving the way for the trade agreement to be signed.
- Differences narrowing: Outstanding issues identified when negotiations concluded in late June have since narrowed, according to the Commerce Secretary.
- India’s priorities: New Delhi is seeking greater tariff stability and priority market access under the proposed agreement.
- US remains top export market: India’s exports to the US reached $50.81 billion between April and September, according to Indian trade officials.
Russia Signals Possible US Diesel Shipments in 2–3 Weeks; Weighs LPG Export Restrictions
- Diesel exports to the US: Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said the first Russian diesel shipments to the US could begin within 2–3 weeks, provided contracts are signed and transportation is arranged.
- Gasoline imports to continue: Novak said Russia will continue importing gasoline at least through the end of the year.
- LPG export curbs under consideration: Russia is considering restrictions on liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) exports, according to TASS.
- Ryazan refinery attack claim: Russia’s Defence Ministry said Ukrainian forces attempted a large-scale overnight attack on a Ryazan refinery. It claimed Russian forces intercepted and destroyed four long-range Flamingo cruise missiles and 69 drones.
Advertisement
AI Sell-Off Hits US Chip Stocks as Global Bond Yields Slide on Safe-Haven Demand
- US chip stocks fall premarket: AMD and Marvell each dropped 3.7%, Intel fell 3.6%, Applied Materials declined 3.0%, Nvidia lost 1.9%, and Broadcom slipped 1.7%.
- US Treasury yields retreat: The US 10-year Treasury yield fell 10 basis points to 5.089% as investors sought safety amid the AI-led equity sell-off.
- European bond yields decline: Germany’s 10-year Bund yield dropped 8.5 bps to 3.3819%, its lowest since September 9. France’s 10-year yield fell 11.5 bps to 4.7619%, while Italy’s declined 10 bps to 4.4657%.
- AI concerns weigh on growth outlook: TD Securities strategist Prashant Newnaha said the bond rally despite hotter-than-expected US inflation may reflect falling market growth expectations as AI stocks plunge.
- Market signal: Investors are increasingly using government bonds as a hedge against equity-market risk, amid concerns over AI valuations, financing needs and future growth.
🔴 Breaking
SEBI Chairman Says SLBM Reforms Consultation Paper Coming Soon; Account Aggregator to Improve CAS
- SLBM reforms prioritised: SEBI Chairman Tuhin Kanta Pandey said a working group is reviewing proposals to reform the Stock Lending and Borrowing Mechanism (SLBM). A consultation paper will be released once the proposals are finalised.
- Consultation paper expected soon: Pandey described the SLBM reforms as a high priority for SEBI and said the process is progressing.
- Account Aggregator framework: SEBI plans to use the Account Aggregator framework to improve the Consolidated Account Statement (CAS), enabling better access to financial information across different products.
- Broader portfolio view: Pandey said the framework could help investment service providers obtain a more comprehensive view of an investor’s portfolio across products, supporting more informed investment services and advice.
- SEBI Chairman Tuhin Kanta Pandey says making investment easier for FPIs and domestic investors is a basic responsibility, adding that simplifying the process should not be a heavy lift.
Saxo Bank Says AI Stock Correction May Not Trigger a Broad Bear Market
- Market concentration risk: Saxo Bank Chief Investment Strategist Charoen Chanana warned that the US stock market rally is heavily concentrated in a handful of major technology companies, increasing broader market risks.
- AI sell-off risks: Weakness in AI-related stocks could drag down major indices, prompt investors to reduce portfolio risk and slow investment in AI infrastructure.
- Sector rotation possible: Chanana said an AI-led correction does not necessarily mean a broader bear market if corporate earnings remain resilient and economic growth stays stable.
- Potential beneficiaries: Investors could redirect funds towards healthcare, selected financial stocks and industrial companies with more attractive valuations.
- Key market signal: If technology stocks fall while gains broaden across other sectors, it may indicate a rotation of capital. If selling spreads across multiple sectors, it could signal rising market-wide risk aversion.
Advertisement
Russia Reports Refinery Fire After Ukrainian Drone Attack; Russian Strikes Kill 3 in Ukraine
- Refinery fire in Russia: Ryazan region governor said a concentrated Ukrainian drone attack on October 15 set a local oil refinery on fire and damaged a company warehouse and parked vehicles. Preliminary reports indicated no casualties.
- Russian drone barrage in Ukraine: Ukraine’s Kirovohrad regional administration said Russian forces launched nearly 360 drones, striking 26 locations across the region.
- Three killed, six injured: The Ukrainian administration reported three fatalities and six injuries in the attacks.
- Infrastructure targeted: Reported strike locations included critical infrastructure, transport companies, logistics facilities and residential buildings.
🔴 Breaking
US Ambassador Says Washington Won’t Demand India Immediately Halt Russian Oil Imports; Rubio to Visit Next Week
- No immediate halt expected: US Ambassador to India Sergio Gor said Washington does not expect India to immediately stop buying Russian oil under a new US sanctions law.
- Sanctions aimed at ending war: Gor said sanctions are intended to help end the Russia-Ukraine war rather than punish countries.
- Rubio’s India visit: US Secretary of State Marco Rubio is expected to visit New Delhi next week to discuss deeper energy cooperation and stronger economic ties.
- Trade remains a priority: Gor said strengthening US-India trade and commercial relations remains a key priority for Washington.
- Relations defended: The ambassador denied that US-India relations are strained and said other US cabinet members are expected to visit India in the coming months.
🔴 Breaking
South Korean Regulator Calls Emergency Meeting as KOSPI Plunges 9% and KOSDAQ Triggers Circuit Breaker
- South Korea’s KOSPI plunged 9% to 5,467 intraday, prompting an emergency response from financial regulators.
- The KOSDAQ fell more than 8%, triggering a Level-1 circuit breaker and a 20-minute trading halt.
- The Korea Exchange suspended new order submissions during the halt but allowed order cancellations. Trading resumed through a 10-minute call auction before the market was scheduled to fully reopen.
- Under Korea Exchange rules, a Level-1 circuit breaker is triggered when the KOSPI or KOSDAQ falls at least 8% from the previous close and the decline persists for one minute.
- This was the first Level-1 circuit breaker on the KOSDAQ since July 29. South Korea’s financial regulator said it would convene an emergency meeting to discuss the market sell-off.
- FSC pledged market-stabilising measures and stronger investor protection.
Advertisement
TSMC Q3 Profit Jumps 69% to $23.6 Billion as AI Chip Demand Fuels Expansion
- Profit beats expectations: TSMC’s third-quarter net profit surged 69% year-on-year to NT$763.1 billion ($23.6 billion), exceeding analyst estimates.
- Revenue accelerates: Quarterly revenue rose 51% year-on-year to $47 billion, with the company reporting faster revenue growth over the past two quarters.
- Record capital expenditure: TSMC reiterated that capital expenditure could reach a record $64 billion this year as it expands capacity to meet growing demand.
- 2027 spending forecasts climb: Goldman Sachs projects TSMC’s 2027 capex at $85 billion, while UBS estimates $90 billion, both above the institutional-survey average of $75 billion.
- Around 20 fabs planned: TSMC is working to build and equip roughly 20 semiconductor fabrication plants simultaneously across Taiwan and overseas, compared with its historical norm of four to five concurrent projects.
HSBC Warns AI Infrastructure Funding Faces Tighter Scrutiny as Investors Demand Higher Returns
- Stricter financing standards: HSBC’s head of corporate and institutional banking, Michael Roberts, said banks and investors are becoming more cautious about financing large-scale AI infrastructure projects and are demanding higher returns.
- AI investment faces pressure: A global technology stock sell-off and sharp declines in semiconductor shares have intensified concerns about the financing challenges facing the AI sector.
- Rising borrowing costs: Higher interest rates and elevated global bond yields are increasing the cost of capital for AI infrastructure projects.
- Financing deals under scrutiny: Roberts said lenders will focus more closely on reasonable returns and appropriate financing structures, adding that the enormous size of these deals makes them harder to complete.
- Long-term investment outlook: PwC estimates that AI-related infrastructure investment spending in Asia alone could reach $8.2 trillion by 2050.
Global Smartphone Shipments Plunge 22% as Memory Chip Costs Surge
- Record decline: Global smartphone shipments fell 22% in the third quarter, marking the largest quarterly drop on record, according to market research firm IDC.
- AI demand drives chip costs: Rising demand for memory chips from the artificial intelligence industry has sharply increased component costs, squeezing smartphone manufacturers’ profit margins.
- Prices rise, specifications cut: Manufacturers are responding by raising smartphone prices, reducing specifications and discontinuing low-cost models aimed at budget-conscious consumers.
- Memory costs surge 350%: IDC Research Director Nabila Popal said memory chip costs have risen approximately 350% since last year and continue to climb.
- Further pressure expected: Popal warned that the market has not yet reached its bottom, suggesting smartphone shipments and manufacturers’ profitability could face further pressure.
Advertisement
Barclays Analyst Sees Possible Tesla–SpaceX Deal Before December 6
- Potential merger speculation: Barclays analyst Dan Levy believes a Tesla–SpaceX deal could be announced before Tesla’s annual meeting, which is due by December 6, Bloomberg reported.
- SpaceX acquisition seen as likeliest: Levy views SpaceX acquiring Tesla as the most likely deal structure.
- AI chip integration at the centre: Levy said the key strategic value would be vertical integration around the Terafab AI chip plant.
- Regulatory hurdles: JPMorgan warned that regulators, particularly in China, could delay a potential transaction.
- No confirmation: Neither Tesla nor SpaceX has confirmed merger talks. Newsquawk described the analyst’s note as speculation rather than evidence of an active deal process.
CoreWeave Seeks Insurance Funding as AI Chip-Backed Financing Exceeds $35 Billion
- Insurance capital push: NVIDIA-backed AI cloud provider CoreWeave is seeking funding from insurance companies to reduce financing costs for AI chips and infrastructure.
- Chip-backed borrowing expands: Fundraising through chip-backed loans, high-yield bonds, convertible securities and equity has exceeded $35 billion year-to-date. CoreWeave’s debt and lease obligations stood at approximately $52 billion at the end of June.
- Major financing deal: Earlier this year, CoreWeave secured an $8.5 billion loan backed by NVIDIA chips and a long-term Meta usage contract. It plans to pitch insurers loans backed by lower-rated customers, including AI labs.
- CEO defends business outlook: CoreWeave’s CEO expressed confidence in the company’s financing, sales, business model and order backlog, saying the backlog is sufficient to support its debt obligations.
- Stock sell-off concerns: The CEO blamed the recent share-price decline on irrational market behaviour and said delays to other companies’ IPOs were affecting investor perceptions of CoreWeave.
- Tech stocks slide: CoreWeave plunged more than 15% in Wednesday’s US session. NVIDIA fell around 3%, Micron declined 4%, SK Hynix dropped 6%, and Dell lost more than 11%, while the Nasdaq Composite fell 1.88%.
$850 Billion Wiped Out as US Tech Stocks Suffer Steepest Drop in Three Months
- Market value erased: US technology stocks lost around $850 billion in market value as the sector recorded its steepest decline in three months, driven by renewed fears of Federal Reserve rate hikes.
- Inflation sparks concerns: US September CPI rose 3.7% year-on-year, reigniting concerns that the Fed may need to tighten monetary policy further.
- Semiconductors lead losses: The iShares Semiconductor ETF plunged 4.5%, reflecting broad-based selling across chipmakers.
- Big Tech under pressure: Nvidia and Meta Platforms each fell more than 3%, adding to pressure on the Nasdaq Composite.
- Oracle tumbles: Oracle shares dropped 8.8% during the session, among the sharper declines in major technology stocks.
- Why it matters: Higher interest rates can weigh on high-growth technology and AI stocks by increasing borrowing costs and reducing the present value of expected future earnings.
Advertisement
IMF Warns AI Boom Reversal Could Hit Asia; South Korea Benefits Disproportionately
- AI-driven growth: An IMF official said South Korea has benefited disproportionately from the artificial intelligence boom, while Japan has also gained but to a much lesser extent.
- South Korea forecast upgraded: The IMF raised its 2026 GDP growth forecast for South Korea to 3.3% from 1.9%.
- Japan outlook unchanged: The IMF maintained Japan’s 2026 GDP growth forecast at 0.7%.
- AI demand risk: The IMF warned that any reversal in the AI boom or adjustment in AI demand could have a particularly significant impact on Asia because of the region’s deep exposure to the AI supply chain.
- Bond yield pressure: Tighter US monetary policy and fiscal pressures in advanced economies could continue to push Asian bond yields higher.
South Korea to Tighten Real Estate Oversight, Target Foreign Speculation and Suspicious Trades
- South Korea’s Real Estate Agency plans to strengthen property market supervision, with a focus on foreign speculative activity and transactions suspected of distorting prices.
- The agency will compile new statistics on foreign home ownership and commercial property vacancy rates.
- It will use big data and artificial intelligence to improve the accuracy of official property valuations and real estate statistics.
- Market and transaction data will be analysed more closely to identify speculative activity and abnormal trading patterns.
- The agency also plans to strengthen consumer protection, according to remarks by its head at the National Assembly on October 15, Yonhap reported.
IMF Raises Asia-Pacific Growth Forecast to 4.8%; India FY27 Forecast Increased to 7%
- Asia-Pacific growth upgraded: The IMF raised its 2026 regional GDP growth forecast to 4.8% from 4.4% in April, citing strong demand for AI-related technologies and resilient intra-Asian trade.
- India growth forecast raised: The IMF increased India's FY27 GDP growth forecast to 7.0% from 6.5%.
- South Korea outlook improves: The IMF sharply raised South Korea's 2026 growth forecast to 3.3% from 1.9%.
- Japan forecast unchanged: The IMF maintained its 2026 GDP growth forecast for Japan at 0.7%.
- Risks from AI and energy: The IMF warned that Middle East-related energy shocks could weigh on regional growth. Given Asia's exposure across the AI supply chain, any slowdown in AI demand could have an outsized impact.
- Bond yield risks: Tighter US monetary policy and fiscal pressures in advanced economies could continue pushing Asian bond yields higher.
Advertisement
US Stocks Fall as Nasdaq Drops 1.88%; Semiconductor Index Slides 4.3%
- Major indexes close lower: The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.09%, the S&P 500 declined 1.1%, and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 1.88%.
- Big Tech stocks slide: Nvidia fell 3.16%, Broadcom dropped 3.10%, Meta declined more than 3%, and Tesla lost over 2%.
- Semiconductor stocks under pressure: The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index plunged 4.3%. Micron Technology fell 4%, while SK Hynix declined 6%.
- AI infrastructure stocks tumble: CoreWeave plunged more than 15%, while Dell Technologies dropped over 11%, adding to concerns around technology and AI infrastructure spending.
- Chinese stocks weaken: The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index fell 1.39%, with Bilibili and NIO both declining more than 4%.
- US dollar strengthens: The US Dollar Index rose 0.37% to 102.554. The euro weakened to $1.1153 and the British pound fell to $1.3181, while the dollar rose against the Swiss franc and Canadian dollar.
Morgan Stanley CEO Expects AI Spending to Stay Near $1 Trillion Annually for 5–10 Years
- Morgan Stanley CEO Ted Pick expects global AI spending to remain around $1 trillion annually over the next 5–10 years, despite potential bottlenecks and overbuilding.
- Pick said AI investment will continue at a massive scale, with AI-related capital expenditure helping drive growth in both the US and global economies.
- He said banks play a role in managing the pace of AI investment, slowing financing when markets move too quickly and accelerating it when necessary.
- JPMorgan Chase CFO Jeremy Barnum said the bank is closely monitoring its exposure to AI as infrastructure development drives rising capital expenditure requirements.
- The comments highlight the scale of AI infrastructure investment and growing attention among major banks to the financing risks associated with the spending boom.
Fed Rate Hike Odds Rise as US Inflation Hits 3.7%; Treasury Yields Reverse Gains
- October rate hike probability: CME FedWatch puts the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping rates unchanged in October at 66.8%, while the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point hike stands at 33.2%.
- December outlook: Markets assign a 62.2% probability to a cumulative 25-basis-point hike by December and a 28.7% probability to a 50-basis-point increase. The probability of no change is 9.1%.
- US inflation exceeds expectations: September CPI rose 3.7% year-on-year, above market expectations of 3.6%, initially pushing the 2-year Treasury yield to its highest level in more than two weeks.
- Treasury yields retreat: US Treasury prices rebounded overnight, with yields across most maturities falling as traders weighed inflation pressures against dovish comments from Federal Reserve officials.
- Fed policy signals remain mixed: Fed official Mary Daly said rate hikes may be necessary but are not imminent. TD Securities strategist Brooks said the October outlook remains uncertain as economic data and Fed communications send different signals.
- Trump on oil prices: President Donald Trump said the US is making more money than ever because oil prices are high.
Advertisement
US Considers Easing Oil Shipping Sanctions and Unfreezing Russian Assets for Peace Talks
- Shadow fleet sanctions under review: The Trump administration is considering allowing previously sanctioned ships to transport oil and petroleum products not restricted by US sanctions, aiming to increase shipments and reduce elevated global shipping costs.
- Russian diesel sanctions temporarily eased: The discussions follow a temporary US relaxation of sanctions on Russian diesel fuel, drawing criticism from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, European governments and some Republican senators.
- Frozen Russian assets proposal: According to the Financial Times, the US has proposed unfreezing some Russian sovereign assets frozen since the Russia-Ukraine war began and transferring them to an institution overseen by Washington to help restart peace talks.
- European opposition: The proposal was reportedly rejected by European representatives during discussions in Miami involving US, Ukrainian, European and NATO officials.
- Diplomatic tensions: The proposals have raised concerns in Kyiv and European capitals over Washington’s approach to Russia. The details of any asset release and how the funds would be used remain under discussion.
Asian Chip Stocks Plunge as AI Funding Concerns and Fed Rate Hike Fears Intensify
- Samsung Electronics fell over 7% and SK Hynix dropped more than 8% on Thursday as the global sell-off in technology stocks continued, dragging South Korea’s KOSPI down more than 6% at one point.
- Japan’s Nikkei 225 declined over 3% intraday, while semiconductor equipment makers Tokyo Electron and Screen Holdings each fell around 3%.
- Investor concerns are mounting over rising interest rates, stretched AI valuations and the massive financing required to build AI infrastructure.
- Strong earnings from Samsung and ASML failed to restore confidence. Meanwhile, AI cloud infrastructure company CoreWeave’s shares plunged, and its bonds fell to levels associated with heightened corporate financial distress.
- US September CPI data, which recorded its largest monthly increase in five months, strengthened market expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike, adding further pressure on technology stocks.