India GDP growth reached 7.8% in the first quarter of FY 2026-27, with real GDP estimated at ₹81.36 lakh crore, according to quarterly estimates released by the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) on August 31, 2026.
Real GDP stood at ₹75.46 lakh crore in Q1 FY 2025-26. Nominal GDP increased 10.3% to ₹88.27 lakh crore from ₹80.00 lakh crore a year earlier. Real GVA rose 8.2% to ₹73.82 lakh crore, while nominal GVA increased 11.5% to ₹80.53 lakh crore.
Services and investment support growth
The tertiary sector recorded 10% growth at constant prices during the quarter. Within this sector, Financial, Real Estate, IT and Professional Services registered 12.1% growth.
The secondary sector grew 8.6%, while the primary sector expanded 2.9%. Agriculture and allied activities recorded 3.6% growth during Q1 FY27.
On the expenditure side, Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) grew 11.9% at constant prices, compared with 5.8% in Q1 FY26. Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) increased 7.1%.
The latest estimates use the new national accounts series with 2022-23 as the base year. MoSPI said the series incorporates updated Producer Price Index (PPI) data, Index of Industrial Production (IIP) data and updated administrative information. The manufacturing sector is estimated using a double-deflation approach, under which output and intermediate consumption are separately deflated.
The ministry said the quarterly GDP estimates are compiled using the benchmark-indicator methodology and follow relevant standards in the IMF’s 2017 Quarterly National Accounts Manual. Estimates may be revised as source agencies provide improved data coverage and updated inputs.
The Q1 FY27 estimates also show strong growth in several indicators, including commercial vehicle sales at 18.3%, three-wheeler sales at 29.7%, IIP electricity at 9.3%, IIP capital goods at 15.2%, exports of goods and services at 25.8% and exports of transport goods at 52.2%. The next quarterly GDP estimates, covering July-September 2026, are scheduled for release on November 30, 2026.
India’s Economy Remains Stable, But External Risks Persist
India’s Finance Ministry said the external sector remains robust and capable of withstanding changing global trade dynamics and a volatile financial environment. However, external uncertainty remains the primary risk, even as domestic activity, inflation and the external position stay relatively stable.
Domestic demand continues to support economic activity despite slower global expansion. The ministry cautioned that elevated food inflation could limit non food discretionary spending, while food prices, weather conditions and global uncertainty need close monitoring. The impact of El Niño on rainfall, crop yields and food inflation also remains a concern.
Chief Economic Adviser said inflation has remained “quite good” so far. He noted that falling global urea prices could reduce fertilizer subsidy costs and lower the risk of fiscal slippage.
The CEA also said the impact of the conflict on oil prices has eased, though disruptions to global crude oil production are expected to continue for longer.
He added that the RBI’s successful foreign exchange deposit scheme has strengthened India’s balance of payments and helped establish a floor for the rupee against the US dollar.
MOSPI Revises GDP Growth Estimates
MOSPI revised GDP growth at constant prices to 7.3% from 7.2% for 2023-24, 7.2% from 7.1% for 2024-25, and 7.8% from 7.7% for 2025-26. GDP was revised to ₹280.94 lakh crore, ₹301.15 lakh crore and ₹324.70 lakh crore, respectively.
At current prices, growth for 2023-24 was revised to 11.1% from 11.0%, while 2024-25 was cut to 9.4% from 9.7% and 2025-26 to 8.6% from 8.9%. Nominal GDP was revised to ₹290.73 lakh crore, ₹317.99 lakh crore and ₹345.37 lakh crore, respectively.
SBI Research Raises FY27 GDP Growth Forecast
SBI Research raised India’s FY27 real GDP growth forecast to 7.3% from 6.6%, following stronger-than-expected Q1 growth of 7.8%. Growth was supported by 10% services expansion, 9.2% manufacturing growth and 11.9% capital formation. The Q1 figure beat the RBI’s 7% projection and most private estimates. However, SBI Research cautioned that policy measures linked to the West Asia conflict, including those affecting imports, gold and energy, may have influenced the Q1 estimates.
