Tesla’s Q1 Production and Delivery Report: Analyst Estimates and Market Expectations

Tesla is anticipated to unveil its Q1 production and delivery report on the morning of April 2nd, likely between 8-9 AM ET.

Analyst estimates for Tesla’s Q1 2024 performance are as follows:
   – Delivery Consensus: Expected at 431,125 vehicles, compared to 422,875 vehicles delivered in Q1 2023.
   – Production Consensus: Anticipated to reach 430,000 vehicles, down from 440,808 vehicles produced in Q1 2023.

Any delivery figure for Tesla surpassing last year’s Q1 total of 422,875 vehicles would be considered satisfactory.

However, the market is likely to react unfavorably to the first year-over-year decline in deliveries since Q2 2020, amidst the ongoing pandemic.

Rivian’s first-quarter delivery numbers exceeded expectations, reaching 13,588 vehicles, surpassing the Bloomberg consensus estimate of 11,893.

The company produced 13,980 vehicles during the same period, slightly exceeding the anticipated figure of 13,817.

Additionally, Rivian reaffirmed its commitment to its 2024 production guidance, aiming to produce 57,000 vehicles.

Despite earlier management projections suggesting a 10-15% quarter-over-quarter decrease (with 4Q’s deliveries at 13,972), Rivian outperformed their own guidance, delivering stronger numbers than indicated to the market.

Tesla’s shares fall by 4% to premarket lows as the company reports lower-than-expected Q1 deliveries of 386,810 vehicles compared to the estimated 449,080. Despite producing over 433,000 vehicles, Tesla delivered 387,000 units.

Tesla’s decline deepens to over 6% following disappointing Q1 deliveries. Specifically, the company delivered 369,783 Model 3 and Model Y vehicles, falling short of the estimated 426,940 units.

Tesla fell short of first-quarter delivery estimates on Tuesday, contending with competition from new entrants and established rivals in key markets, while also grappling with reduced demand for its older electric car models. The company delivered approximately 386,810 vehicles in the quarter ending March 31, marking a 20.2% decline from the previous quarter and an 8.5% decrease compared to the same period last year.

Tesla to post Q1 financial results on April 23.

Tesla’s Q1 delivery figures reveal:

– Total Q1 Deliveries: 386,810 (Average Consensus: 443,027)
  – Model 3/Y: 369,783 (Estimated: 421,715)
  – Other Models + Cybertruck: 17,027 (Estimated: 18,956)

– Total Production: 433,371 (Estimated: 435,000)

Tesla’s Q1 deliveries slightly missed last year’s 422,875, marking its first year-over-year decline since Q2 2020 (during the pandemic).

Tesla's Q1 Production and Delivery Report: Analyst Estimates and Market Expectations

Tesla’s says decrease in volumes was partly due to ramping up production for the updated Model 3 in Fremont, as well as factory shutdowns from shipping diversions due to the Red Sea conflict and an arson attack at Gigafactory Berlin.


With the addition of more than 46,000 vehicles to its worldwide inventory, Tesla is commencing the second quarter with notable reductions on new vehicle prices.

Traditionally, $TSLA implements incentives and price cuts towards the quarter’s end to enhance deliveries and minimize inventory levels.

Nevertheless, in the previous quarter, they initiated discounts earlier than usual.

At present, with the new quarter just underway, Tesla’s inventory already displays substantial markdowns.

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