Morgan Stanley upheld its Overweight rating on Tesla and maintained a price target of $320.
Morgan Stanley revises Tesla’s first-quarter delivery forecast to 425.4k, down from the previous estimate of 469.4k, representing a 0.6% year-over-year growth. Additionally, the full-year 2024 delivery projection has been adjusted to 1,954k from 1,998k, indicating an 8.1% year-over-year growth. Furthermore, Morgan Stanley lowers the first-quarter Non-GAAP diluted EPS to $0.24 from the earlier estimate of $0.29, while maintaining the full-year 2024 EPS forecast at $1.51.
RBC Capital has revised down its Q1 delivery projections for Tesla to 446,000 from the original estimate of 500,000, while maintaining its Outperform rating and a $298 price target for the stock.
Deutsche Bank’s on Tesla suggests that while the company has revealed plans to increase prices in the U.S. and China starting in April, the move is seen more as an effort to stimulate sales in March rather than an indication of robust demand.
We have revised down our full-year delivery forecast to approximately 1.9 million units, indicating just modest single-digit growth. Concerns regarding both volume and earnings could exert notable pressure on the stock, particularly given the substantial downside risk we anticipate for 2025 earnings.
Wedbush reduces Tesla’s price target to $300 due to Q1 delivery figures indicating a ‘Nightmare Quarter’ ahead.
According to Wedbush estimates, China deliveries are expected to decline by 3-4% this quarter when the data is released on April 2nd. The analyst commented that Tesla’s Q1 deliveries have been challenging, attributed to reduced demand from China and manufacturing downtimes at its Berlin factory causing supply issues.
Tesla’s most pressing concern, particularly for investors, is centered around China, where increased competition in the electric vehicle (EV) sector and ongoing price wars have created significant challenges for the company, particularly evident over the past year and notably in this quarter. We observe a notably negative narrative surrounding Tesla, with Musk and the company facing criticism from various quarters, reflecting a level of negativity not seen in recent years.
Ives expressed optimism about Tesla’s prospects in the coming years, despite acknowledging the short-term challenges, particularly in China, which are contributing to the darkening demand outlook.
Citi and Bernstein, along with other firms, have recently reduced their price targets for Tesla, citing ambitious consensus estimates and weak demand in crucial markets. These analysts have also adjusted their first-quarter delivery forecasts, highlighting the ongoing challenges confronting Tesla.
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