Investors are adjusting their expectations for a U.S. rate cut amid a robust economy and resistance from central bank officials. This reconsideration is influencing Treasury and forex markets, despite stocks hovering around record levels.
Markets no longer expect a rate cut in March 2024 officially.
Probability of March rate cuts has shifted to ~42%, a notable change from the previous 90% two weeks ago.
Odds of rate cuts at the upcoming Fed meeting are now only ~2%.
Approximately ~150 basis points of interest rate cuts are still factored into futures.
Despite fluctuations, there’s a consistent trend of markets turning dovish prematurely.
BigBreakingWire maintains the stance that the Fed is unlikely to implement 6+ rate cuts in 2024.
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Last reviewed by Abhishek Sharma on August 31, 2026
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