Live News Blog

Iran Says It Struck 3 Tankers in 2 Days in Strait of Hormuz

• Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy said it struck a large tanker after the vessel allegedly switched off its navigation systems and attempted to leave the Strait of Hormuz despite warnings.
• The IRGC claimed this was the third large tanker hit in two days while attempting to exit the strait.
• The force warned that merchant ships and tankers cooperating with US forces in the Strait of Hormuz or Persian Gulf would face decisive action.
• The claims have not been independently verified.

Zelenskyy Says Ukraine Will Continue Long Range Strikes on Russia, Oil jumps

• Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Ukraine will continue long range strikes against Russia unless Moscow agrees to an energy ceasefire.
• Zelenskyy said he learned about Trump's announced ceasefire through media reports and accused Russia of continuing attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure afterward.
• He warned that Ukraine would respond if Russia refuses to accept an energy truce, adding that Putin does not follow Trump's social media posts.
• Ukraine's state oil and gas company reported that Russian drones hit gas infrastructure in Kharkiv region on Oct 12. The attack damaged key equipment and started a fire, disrupting operations. Ukrainian crews are now repairing the damage and controlling the fire. Russia has not commented.

Iran Says US Blockade Prevents Strait of Hormuz Security Restoration

• Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei said continued US maritime pressure, blockades and economic warfare are preventing the Strait of Hormuz from returning to security.
• Baghaei said Iran’s actions in the waterway since February 28 were lawful responses to alleged US and Israeli military actions.
• He argued that Washington’s reported request for Russian assistance to secure fuel supplies shows the Hormuz crisis remains unresolved.
• Baghaei said Tehran is still reviewing the US position and will respond through intermediaries. He also called for resolving the Yemen conflict through dialogue.

Jio-bp Hikes Petrol by Rs 5, Diesel by Rs 3 Per Litre

• Jio-bp, backed by Reliance Industries, raised petrol prices by Rs 5 and diesel by Rs 3 per litre from 6 AM Sunday, Financial Express reported.
• Nayara Energy, backed by Rosneft, had announced identical hikes on October 3 as the gap between retail and bulk diesel prices reached as much as Rs 40 per litre.
• The move reverses Jio-bp CEO Akshay Wadhwa’s April stance that the company was “not planning any increase.”
• Jio-bp becomes the second private fuel retailer in 10 days to raise pump prices as expensive crude squeezes margins, while state-run IOC, BPCL and HPCL continue to hold retail rates.

Bessent Says Iran’s Oil Cash Flow Has Turned Negative

• US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Iranian vessels are no longer carrying oil and Tehran’s cash flow has turned negative, according to Fox News.
• Bessent said the US has shifted from its maximum pressure campaign to a policy of comprehensive isolation aimed at cutting Iran’s ties with the outside world.
• He also said the US will use all legal authorities regarding diesel transactions with Russia, while arguing that such trade benefits Americans.
• Bessent added that President Trump does not expect a military conflict before the US midterm elections.

India Forex Reserves Fall Nearly $13 Billion to $734.61 Billion

• India’s forex reserves fell $12.95 billion to $734.61 billion in the week ended October 2, following an $18.34 billion decline in the previous week.
• The rupee remains near its record low despite the RBI’s first repo rate hike in nearly four years.
• From Monday, the RBI will meet the daily dollar requirements of IOC, HPCL and BPCL through a special facility, keeping their demand out of the open market.
• The RBI has also introduced a foreign exchange risk reserve framework requiring banks to hold 20% cash against rupee forex derivatives exceeding $2 million.
• SBI Research has urged a 50 basis point rate hike and faster repatriation of export earnings, as the RBI steps aim to provide breathing room for the rupee.

China Says PLA Drills Around Taiwan Are Meant to Deter Independence

• China’s Defence Ministry accused Taiwan leader Lai Ching-te of pursuing independence and increasing cross-strait tensions.
• Beijing said the ruling Democratic Progressive Party is promoting “total defence” and an “all-island battlefield” narrative to justify greater military mobilisation and defence spending.
• China said PLA drills around Taiwan are intended to deter independence moves and foreign interference.
• The ministry reiterated Beijing’s position that Taiwan is part of China and said the exercises aim to protect the security of Taiwan residents.

RBI Opens Dedicated Dollar Window for Oil Companies, Tightens FX Rules

• RBI will meet the full daily dollar requirements of three state owned oil companies through a dedicated FX window starting Monday to support the rupee.
• The central bank has barred re-registration of previously cancelled rupee related FX derivative contracts.
• The threshold for hedges without proof of underlying exposure has been cut from $100M to $5M.
• RBI also introduced a 20% cash reserve requirement for FX transactions with a nominal value above $2M.

Trump Administration Imposes Sanctions on International Criminal Court

• The Trump administration announced new sanctions targeting the International Criminal Court (ICC), expanding earlier measures against several prosecutors and judges.
• US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Washington would block transactions with the court, cut off its resources and seek to render it inoperable.
• The measures could extend to companies providing services to the ICC, potentially disrupting its operations and straining US ties with European allies.
• The US Treasury subsequently issued general licences permitting certain telecom, enterprise software and pension related transactions involving the court.

UKMTO Records 122 Vessel Security Incidents Linked to US Iran Conflict in 2026

• UK Maritime Trade Operations reported 122 vessel security incidents linked to the US Iran conflict within its monitoring area so far this year.
• The Red Sea recorded 6 attacks on merchant vessels, alongside 41 piracy related incidents.
• UKMTO has issued 133 maritime security warnings and 18 advisories so far this year.
• Security around the Strait of Hormuz and adjacent waters remains severe, with vessels urged to maintain heightened vigilance and report suspicious activity.

Iran Revising US Proposal, Putin Offers Help to Ease Middle East Tensions

• Russian President Vladimir Putin said the Middle East conflict is not Iran’s fault and that Tehran is working to end the fighting.
• Putin met Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian in Turkmenistan on October 8 and said Russia is ready to help ease regional tensions.
• Pezeshkian said Iran is revising a new US proposal and plans to arrange a meeting with American officials through mediators once the revisions are complete.
• The developments signal a possible path toward renewed diplomatic talks, although no meeting has been confirmed.

Trump Says US Iran Talks Productive, No Attack Before November 3

• Trump said the US is holding productive talks with Iran and will not attack the country before the November 3 midterm elections.
• He said the blockade on Iran will remain fully in place and claimed 22 million barrels crossed the Strait of Hormuz last night, with none from or bound for Iran.
• Trump said Iran will not have nuclear weapons and described the country as economically and militarily weak.
• WTI crude fell more than $1 to $90.24 a barrel, while Brent declined to $102.34.

India Imposes 3% Tax on Gold, Silver and Platinum Imports Through Banks

• India has withdrawn the tax exemption on gold, silver and platinum imported by banks and state nominated agencies.
• The shipments will now face a 3% Integrated Goods and Services Tax, raising costs for major channels supplying India’s bullion market.
• Revenue Secretary Arvind Shrivastava said the exemption was not extended beyond March 31.
• The move puts gold and silver imports through banks on the same tax footing as other import routes.

US Suspends Infosys, Tata, Wipro, HCL and Microsoft From PERM Program

• The US Labor Department suspended major IT firms including Cognizant, Infosys, Tata, Wipro, HCL, Capgemini, Microsoft and Adobe from the Permanent Labor Certification program.
• Labor Secretary Keith Sonderling said the companies will not be allowed to file new PERM applications or have pending applications processed during the suspension.
• Vice President JD Vance accused Microsoft of abusing the H 1B system and replacing US workers with foreign labor.
• The administration is also investigating 9 universities over alleged misuse of visa programs, intensifying its crackdown on foreign worker and student immigration pathways.

Oil Jumps 3% as Houthi Attacks Hit Supply, Iran and Oman Agree Hormuz Security Corridor

• Oil rose more than 3% as Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia, a separate Persian Gulf tanker incident and Hurricane Isaias expanded supply disruptions.
• About 511,619 barrels per day of US Gulf of Mexico oil output, or 25.08%, was shut in by Wednesday, with 8 production platforms and 2 drilling rigs evacuated.
• Around 16.37% of regional natural gas output was also shut in as Isaias strengthened into a hurricane.
• Iran and Oman meanwhile agreed coordinates for a security corridor in the Strait of Hormuz, with Tehran saying it will convey responses to US proposals through intermediaries.

India’s 1 Year Inflation Expectations Rise to 10% as RBI Hikes Rate to 5.5%

• Median household inflation expectations for the next year rose to 10.0% from 9.4%, while 3 month expectations climbed to 9.9%, according to the RBI.
• The survey was released as the Monetary Policy Committee unanimously raised the repo rate by 25 bps to 5.5% and shifted its stance to “calibrated tightening.”
• RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra said rate cuts are off the table in the near term.
• Food and fuel costs are driving higher household price expectations, while the rupee weakened against the dollar after the rate hike.

Houthis Claim Strikes on Riyadh Airport, Warn International Airlines

• Houthi militants claimed they launched multiple ballistic missile strikes on Saudi military positions and reinforcements, causing casualties and fires at weapons depots.
• The group claimed strikes also hit assembly points near Bab al Mandeb, Suqayya and Ras al Ar, with dozens of casualties.
• The Houthis further claimed they struck Riyadh’s King Khalid International Airport.
• The group issued a warning to international airlines, saying continued operations in Saudi airspace, excluding Mecca and Medina, could face serious consequences.

Pentagon Prepares for Possible Large Scale Strikes on Iran Before Midterms

• The Pentagon has instructed US Central Command to prepare for a possible resumption of large scale operations against Iran, Axios reported. No timing has been set and Trump has not made a final decision.
• US and Israeli officials said strikes could occur before the November 3 US midterm elections, potentially targeting Iranian nuclear, energy and infrastructure sites.
• The Atlantic reported the administration is also focused on the impact of the conflict on gas prices and the political timeline, but those assessments are attributed to the publication.
• Separately, US CENTCOM disputed Iran’s claim of controlling Hormuz, saying commercial traffic and energy shipments, including about 20 million barrels of crude, continue through the Strait.
• Trump said US envoy Witkoff is working to reach an agreement with Iran and has made “very good progress.”
• Trump said Iran is willing to offer any terms to prevent further escalation, but an agreement is “not an option I really want.”

Iran Says 7 Day Hormuz Plan Submitted as US Demands Nuclear Concessions

• Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Tehran used the UN General Assembly to present an “innovative” seven day plan aimed at restoring security and reopening the Strait of Hormuz.
• Araghchi said Iran has submitted its conditions to mediators in a precise and feasible plan and remains committed to diplomacy while defending its national interests.
• Saudi media outlet Alhadath, citing senior sources, reported Washington has told Iran it will not make concessions until Tehran limits its nuclear capabilities.
• The same report said mediation efforts have stalled, while Washington no longer considers Hormuz a priority and believes Iran has lost control of the waterway. These claims were attributed to the Saudi outlet and have not been independently confirme

Iran Says Hormuz Remains Closed, Warns It Could Block More Shipping Routes

• President Masoud Pezeshkian said Iran is in an “all out war” and will continue to resist, while relying primarily on domestic capabilities and strengthening national unity.
• An IRGC adviser said Iran’s armed forces have complete control over the Strait of Hormuz and that it will remain closed until Tehran’s demands are met.
• Iranian media also quoted the adviser as saying several shipping routes created by “aggressors” could soon be blocked.
• An Iranian military spokesman reiterated a doctrine of pre emptive strikes against perceived imminent threats, while an IRGC adviser said weapon ranges could be increased if authorised by Iran’s leadership.

Over 40% of India’s Coal Power Capacity Has 4 Days of Stock or Less

• Around 69 coal fired power plants, representing more than 40% of India’s coal fired capacity, had coal stocks for four days or less as of October 4.
• Inventories are near a five year low as unusually high October temperatures keep cooling, irrigation and industrial power demand elevated.
• Heavy rains have disrupted coal production, while rail bottlenecks are slowing deliveries and forcing plants to draw down on site stocks.
• Low inventories raise the risk of widespread power outages if supply disruptions persist.
• Source: Bloomberg.

RBI Raises Repo Rate 25 Bps to 5.50%, Signals No Near Term Cut

• The RBI’s Monetary Policy Committee unanimously raised the key policy rate by 25 bps to 5.50% from 5.25%, in line with expectations.
• RBI Governor said India’s economy remains strong with broad based momentum, but inflation expectations are showing signs of rising.
• The RBI said global financial markets are tense and fragile as the West Asia conflict drives global oil prices higher and pushes inflation risks up.
• The Governor said future policy action will depend on real GDP growth and inflation, while the rupee was little changed near 96.38 per dollar after the decision.

Saudi East West Oil Pipeline Restored to 5.8 Million Bpd

• Saudi Energy Minister Abdulaziz bin Salman said flows through the East West oil pipeline reached about 5.8 million barrels per day as of Tuesday morning.
• The pipeline was restored within five to six days after being shut following a September 10 drone attack from the direction of Iraq.
• The pipeline has a maximum capacity of around 7 million bpd, with roughly 4.5 million bpd available for export through Yanbu on the Red Sea.
• The route connects Saudi Arabia’s eastern oilfields to Yanbu, providing a key alternative for crude exports that bypasses the Strait of Hormuz.

Trump Says Iran War Will End “Very Soon,” Claims US Is Winning

• US President Donald Trump said the war with Iran will be over “very soon,” while dismissing elevated fuel prices as temporary and “a small price to pay” for global security.
• Trump said Iran “might keep going a little long” but insisted the conflict will end soon, “one way or the other.”
• He claimed the US is winning the war and said oil and other prices would “come tumbling down” once the conflict ends.
• Trump also said Iran will not be allowed to acquire a nuclear weapon, calling the campaign a safeguard for the US, Israel and the wider Middle East.
• Trump stated at a rally in Grand Island, Nebraska, that high oil prices are a "small price" for national security. He claimed oil prices are lower than under Biden and predicted gasoline will drop below $1.85 per gallon (about 3.8 liters) soon, possibly around the Nov. 3 midterms. He also reiterated that the U.S. will not allow Iran to get nuclear weapons.

US Warns Foreign Banks Could Face Sanctions for Dealing With Iran

• The US Treasury warned foreign financial institutions dealing with sanctioned Iranian banks could be targeted “at any time without advance notification,” Reuters reported.
• The alert builds on Operation Economic Outcast, launched on August 24, expanding secondary sanctions across digital assets, gold and shipping.
• Penalties could include losing access to US correspondent accounts, with Treasury urging banks to cut ties with sanctioned Iranian lenders.
• The warning escalates Washington’s pressure campaign against Iran’s financial network.

World Bank Warns Asia’s Buffer Against Oil Shock Is Running Out

• The World Bank warned that Asia’s reliance on fuel subsidies to cushion the impact of higher energy prices could become unsustainable if the oil shock persists.
• The bank expects Middle Eastern oil exports to remain below pre conflict levels until mid 2027.
• Indonesia, Thailand and Vietnam have cut gasoline prices, with their dollar reserves falling 15% to 40% this year, according to the World Bank.
• The report warned prolonged subsidies could increase fiscal costs and drain foreign exchange reserves, while AI driven growth is currently helping offset some energy risks.

Pezeshkian Says Iran’s Talks With US Repeatedly Followed by War

• Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said Iran’s problem with the US is that “every time we sit at the negotiating table, we encounter war,” according to Al Jazeera.
• Pezeshkian said Tehran had repeatedly shown willingness to address its nuclear programme and accept IAEA monitoring, but accused the US and Israel of subsequently targeting nuclear sites and scientists.
• He said Iran no longer trusts Washington, arguing that negotiations are meaningless if commitments are broken and sanctions, pressure and attacks continue.
• Pezeshkian also said three attacks followed previous talks, which he cited as evidence that Iran’s adversaries were not seeking dialogue.
• The US 10 year Treasury yield has climbed to around 5.34%, its highest level since 2002.

3 Vessels Struck in Strait of Hormuz as Trump Blames Refineries for Gasoline Prices

• UKMTO said 3 vessels, including 2 oil tankers and 1 LPG carrier, were struck by unidentified projectiles in the Strait of Hormuz.
• UKMTO also reported that Iran’s IRGC ordered an oil tanker to turn back about 11 nautical miles north of As Sib, Oman. The vessel complied.
• Trump said gasoline prices are no longer being driven by the Strait of Hormuz, citing record crude flows, and blamed refinery disruptions for the price pressure.
• Trump pointed to Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries and refinery closures in US states including California as key factors.

Trump Weighs Wider Red Dyed Diesel Use to Cut $6.32 Fuel Costs

• The Trump administration is reportedly preparing to ease restrictions on red dyed diesel, a tax exempt fuel normally reserved for off road use, to reduce diesel costs.
• Red dyed diesel is exempt from the 24.4 cent per gallon federal highway diesel tax, meaning wider use could lower fuel costs for eligible users.
• US diesel prices were around $6.32 per gallon in the latest data cited, after reaching a record $6.53 last month. Prices were about $3.76 when the US Israel attacks on Iran began in February.
• The move comes as the administration seeks alternatives to a diesel export ban amid tight global fuel supplies and rising costs ahead of the November midterm elections.

• Update

• Trump signed an executive order in Grand Island, Nebraska, removing the off-highway requirement for tax-exempt red-dyed diesel, allowing anyone to purchase it for any purpose.

Aramco Warns Global Oil Inventories Are “Worryingly Low” as Hormuz Crisis Deepens

• Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser warned that global oil inventories used to absorb supply shocks are at worryingly low levels.
• Nasser said supply pressures could intensify further if the Strait of Hormuz does not fully reopen, with refined product prices facing even sharper pressure than crude.
• Major economies have announced plans to release up to 100 million barrels of emergency crude and diesel reserves to ease fuel price pressures.
• Aramco is exploring alternative crude export routes and expanding international storage to reduce reliance on a single transport route.
• Saudi Aramco CEO: Oil demand is recovering, with global inventories needing replenishment.
• He said the world will need at least 2 million bpd of additional oil demand over the next 18 months to draw down current inventories. Aramco continues exports via Yanbu, Sidi Kerir and Port Said.
• Aramco CEO stated Brent crude could hit $200/bbl without east-west pipelines. He noted ample inventories to supply customers and that physical crude prices often trade $20-50/bbl above Brent.
• Saudi Aramco's CEO stated that under 10% of oil inventories are actually usable; the rest consists of pipeline fill, minimum tank levels, and operational reserves. He added that if current conditions normalize, crude oil demand will stay stable for the next two years.

India US Trade Talks Hit Plateau as Deal Prospects Dim

• India and the US have reached a “plateau” in trade negotiations, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said, with further concessions becoming “very, very difficult.”
• US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said last week that a deal was not imminent after meeting Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal.
• The two sides have been negotiating since February 2025, with market access and the trade imbalance among the key issues.
• India is seeking preferential tariff treatment and protection against future punitive measures after any agreement.

Indian Brokers Raise ₹3.2 Trillion Through Commercial Paper as Margin Trading Surges

• Stock brokers accounted for about 21% of India’s commercial paper issuance this year, up sharply from 4% in 2021, according to Prime Database.
• Prominent brokers have raised around ₹3.2 trillion, or about $33 billion, as leveraged equity positions approached a record ₹1.6 trillion by September 30.
• The surge highlights how India’s growing margin trading activity is driving demand for short term funding. Brokerages charge roughly 9% to 20% on margin loans, while three month non bank financier CP yields were around 7.18% last week.
• HDFC Securities, ICICI Securities and Kotak Securities are among major issuers, while Zerodha founder Nithin Kamath has warned that a sharp market decline could create risks for the rapidly growing margin lending business.
• Source: Bloomberg.

Maharashtra Faces 22.79% Green Fodder Deficit as Drought Deepens

• Maharashtra is facing a 22.79% shortage of green fodder and a 21.43% deficit in dry fodder amid worsening drought conditions.
• The state has around 2.78 crore livestock, requiring 1,176.78 lakh metric tonnes of green fodder. Availability stands at just 907.49 lakh metric tonnes, leaving a 268.37 lakh tonne shortfall.
• Dry fodder availability is 296.62 lakh metric tonnes against a requirement of 377.87 lakh tonnes, leaving an 81.06 lakh tonne deficit.
• CM Devendra Fadnavis has warned that the situation could become more severe than the 1972 drought, with crop losses and rural economic pressure rising across the state.

India Reservoir Storage Falls to 71.8%, Southern States at Just 49.2%

• India’s reservoir water storage stood at 71.84% of total capacity as of October 1, well below 90.31% recorded a year earlier and the normal level of 81.79%.
• The situation is worse in Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Kerala, Tamil Nadu and Karnataka, where storage was just 49.15% of capacity.
• Southern storage stood at 87.82% a year ago, against a normal level of 76.28%.
• Maharashtra, Karnataka and Rajasthan are also facing acute water shortages, raising concerns over agriculture, hydropower and drinking water supplies.