Goldman Sachs has raised the chances of a U.S. recession in the next 12 months to 45%, up from its earlier estimate of 35%. This change follows growing fears of a trade war, especially after President Donald Trump imposed sweeping tariffs. According to Goldman, tighter financial conditions and rising policy uncertainty could lead businesses to reduce their investments more than previously expected.
Other major investment banks are also warning of increased risks. J.P. Morgan, for example, now sees a 60% chance of a U.S. and global recession in the next 12 months. Just last month, Goldman had already raised its estimate from 20% to 35%, saying the economy wasn’t as strong as in past years.