European LNG imports are set to rise sharply as European buyers compete for limited gas supplies ahead of winter, with September arrivals expected at 7.98 million tonnes and October volumes potentially reaching 10.53 million tonnes, according to Kpler data cited by Reuters.
Spot LNG prices have climbed to $26 per million BTU. At the same time, EU gas storage was only 69.3% full as of September 18, leaving the bloc needing around 21 percentage points of additional storage before its 90% November target.
Europe Faces Tight LNG and Crude Supplies
Europe’s gas storage level is nearly 16 percentage points below the five year average heading into winter. Meanwhile, Asia’s September LNG arrivals are expected to fall to 20.09 million tonnes, the weakest level in eight years, as price sensitive buyers shift towards coal after LNG costs rose 150% since February.
The oil market is also facing severe supply disruptions. Saudi Aramco told all European customers on Friday that they would receive no crude next month after drone strikes from Iraq shut the East West pipeline on September 11.
Norway’s Johan Sverdrup crude has subsequently risen to a $35 per barrel premium over Dated Brent, compared with only 60 cents on September 8. European refiners are scrambling for alternative crude supplies as disruptions tighten the market.
Oil Market Buffers Under Pressure
Morgan Stanley said the Saudi pipeline shutdown, constraints around the Strait of Hormuz and record freight rates are tightening global oil markets. The firm kept its fourth quarter 2026 Brent forecast at $100 per barrel but said risks are skewed to the upside.
The International Energy Agency projected global oil supply could decline by 5.7 million barrels per day in 2026, while normal Gulf flows are not expected to return until 2027. Morgan Stanley also warned that strategic petroleum reserves are nearly depleted and commercial inventories have fallen, reducing available buffers.
QatarEnergy CEO Saad al Kaabi said the Strait of Hormuz crisis could delay expansion projects because critical equipment cannot reach Qatar. The first North Field East LNG train remains expected to start in the first half of 2027, according to Bloomberg, while March missile strikes on Ras Laffan knocked out 17% of Qatar’s LNG export capacity and repairs could take up to five years.
Diesel Prices Hit New Records
Diesel markets are also under pressure. US retail diesel reached a record $6.505 per gallon, according to AAA data, rising more than $0.87 during September and moving above the previous 2022 peak.
France recorded an all time high diesel price of nearly €2.41 per litre on Sunday. Middle Eastern diesel exports fell more than 50% between March and August, while Russia extended its full diesel export ban through October.
Germany will cut fuel taxes by €0.17 per litre from October 1, while Hungary has chosen targeted subsidies instead of restoring a price cap. EU diesel prices have risen nearly 40% this year as supply disruptions from the Middle East and Russia continue.
Q1. What are European LNG imports expected to reach in October?
European LNG imports could reach 10.53 million tonnes in October, according to Kpler data cited by Reuters.
Q2. How full are EU gas storage facilities?
EU gas storage was 69.3% full as of September 18.
Q3. Why are European energy supplies under pressure?
Gas and oil supplies are being affected by tight LNG availability, Saudi pipeline disruption, Strait of Hormuz constraints and lower Middle Eastern diesel exports.
Q4. What is the latest US retail diesel price?
US retail diesel averaged $6.505 per gallon, according to AAA data.
Q5. How much has EU diesel prices increased this year?
EU diesel prices have risen nearly 40% this year, according to the source material.
Source: International Energy Agency
