Live News Blog

Microsoft Resolves Root Cause of Global Outage, but More Than 20 Services Remain Affected

Microsoft has resolved the root cause of its global service outage and is working to restore access for customers and regions still experiencing disruptions.

• The company said the outage originated from an issue during an earlier network capacity upgrade, which became apparent following subsequent network changes.
• Microsoft reported progress in restoring services, with availability improving and email queues significantly reduced to near-normal levels.
• However, users of more than 20 Microsoft products and services may continue to experience errors as recovery efforts continue.
• The outage affected government agencies, traders and businesses worldwide, disrupting access to Microsoft's flagship software and cloud services.
• Microsoft said core processes on some servers became unresponsive under excessive load, while initial troubleshooting and remediation efforts were complicated by further server errors.
• The company said there was no evidence of malicious activity behind the disruption.
• Microsoft plans to provide additional details after services are fully restored.

Key takeaway: Microsoft has fixed the underlying network issue, but service restoration remains ongoing across affected products and regions.

UPI Payments to Remain Free for Individuals as NPCI Plans MDR on Select Merchant Transactions

The Finance Ministry has clarified that person-to-person (P2P) UPI transfers will remain free, while Merchant Discount Rate (MDR) charges will apply only to selected merchant transactions, according to state broadcaster Akashvani.

• NPCI has deferred the proposed 0.4% MDR on eligible merchant UPI payments above ₹2,000 from October 15 to a date after Diwali. However, it has not yet announced a revised implementation date.
• Under NPCI's framework, the 0.4% charge will apply to eligible person-to-merchant (P2M) transactions above ₹2,000, subject to a maximum fee of ₹300 for transactions of ₹75,000 or more.
• Railways, telecom, insurance, fuel and agricultural input payments will attract a flat ₹5 charge per eligible transaction.
• Payments to capital-market firms will carry an MDR of 0.02%, according to Mint.
• Small merchants receiving up to ₹1 lakh per month through UPI QR codes will remain exempt.
• The Finance Ministry estimates that around 96% of merchant transactions will remain unaffected.
• The framework is facing a challenge in the Supreme Court. In an affidavit dated November 3, NPCI told the court that merchants would not be allowed to pass the charges on to customers.
• NPCI has argued that MDR is necessary to support the UPI ecosystem. The Finance Ministry estimates industry operating costs at ₹20,700 crore, against a budget allocation of ₹2,000 crore for FY27.
• Emkay Global Financial Services estimates that the charges could affect around 4% of merchant transaction volumes. It projects FY28 UPI MDR revenue of ₹1,120 crore for Paytm and ₹155 crore for Pine Labs.
• NPCI's November 11 circular introduced the three-year UPI Vyapaar Saksham Scheme, under which merchant fee collections will help compensate banks for onboarding small merchants.
• Industry opinion remains divided. Some payment industry participants argue that MDR is necessary for long-term UPI sustainability, while merchant groups and industry bodies have sought a delay or withdrawal of the proposal.

Key takeaway: Individual UPI transfers and most merchant payments are expected to remain free, but NPCI's proposed MDR framework could introduce charges on a limited category of high-value merchant transactions. Its implementation date remains unannounced, with the framework also facing a Supreme Court challenge.

US Producer Inflation Rises 6.5% in October, Below Expectations; Stock Futures Advance

US producer price inflation accelerated to 6.5% year-on-year in October, its highest level since November 2022, but came in below the market expectation of 6.6%.

• The Producer Price Index (PPI) increased 0.3% month-on-month, below the estimated 0.4%.
• Annual core PPI, excluding food and energy, rose 5.0%, matching expectations and remaining unchanged from the previous month.
• The previous month's monthly PPI reading was revised upward from 1.3% to 1.4%.
• Following the release, markets reduced expectations of further Federal Reserve rate hikes.
• US stock index futures extended gains, with S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures initially rising around 0.5%.
• US Treasury yields moved in mixed directions. The 2-year yield fell 2.64 basis points to 4.853%, while the 10-year yield rose 3.42 basis points to 5.125%.

Key takeaway: Headline producer inflation came in below expectations despite reaching a nearly four-year high, offering some relief to markets concerned about persistent US inflation and further Fed tightening.

US Treasury Secretary Bessent Says Fed Should Avoid Excessive Rate Hikes as Energy Shock Eases

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the US economy remains strong and warned the Federal Reserve against overreacting to an energy supply shock that he expects to subside.Key comments from Bessent:

• Federal Reserve: The Fed should remain open-minded and forward-looking, recognising that current inflationary pressures are driven by an energy supply shock.
• Interest rates: It would be inappropriate to raise interest rates excessively as the energy supply shock is expected to ease.
• Inflation: Core inflation remains under control. Falling gasoline prices could contribute to a modest inflation reading next week.
• US economy: Economic fundamentals remain very strong, with no warning signs. Bessent expressed confidence in the economic outlook.
• Iran: The US will continue putting pressure on Iran and will not hesitate to impose sanctions on Iranian banks.
• Energy: Iran has caused an energy supply shock, but the US economy will get through it.
• Bond market: Recent Treasury auctions have been strong, with Bessent highlighting four of the strongest bond auctions in 20 years and robust demand for the US dollar.
• Trade: The US will stick to trade agreements favourable to American interests. Bessent also expressed optimism about reaching trade agreements with Canada and Mexico.
• Nvidia: Bessent praised Nvidia, saying the company has successfully expanded beyond its dependence on its founder.

Separate development: US auto safety regulators are urging owners of nearly 721,000 BMW vehicles to park them outdoors until fire-related repairs are completed.Key takeaway: Bessent is signalling confidence in the US economy while arguing that the Federal Reserve should look through temporary energy-driven inflation rather than respond with excessive rate hikes.

Texas Incoming Attorney General Vows Strict Scrutiny of Potential Tesla-SpaceX Merger

Texas Attorney General-designate Nathan Johnson has vowed to subject any potential merger between Elon Musk's Tesla and SpaceX to rigorous scrutiny, citing concerns over excessive corporate concentration.

• Johnson said any merger involving companies of this size would deserve "extremely rigorous scrutiny".
• Musk has concentrated a significant part of his business empire in Texas, which offers a more Republican-friendly regulatory environment.
• The billionaire reportedly spent hundreds of millions of dollars supporting Republican candidates and political organisations during the US midterm elections.
• Texas Democrats, including Johnson, Governor-elect Inohosa and Senator-elect Talarico, have pledged to challenge Musk's influence in the state.
• Johnson alleged that Musk had received preferential treatment because of his political alliance with Republicans and substantial campaign spending.
• He said he had no reservations about examining Musk's relationship with the Texas government.

Key takeaway: A potential Tesla-SpaceX merger could face heightened regulatory scrutiny in Texas, where Musk has significant business interests.

BofA Sees Record $1.4 Trillion Flowing Into Global Equity Funds; Goldman Expects US Bond Yields to Ease

Bank of America: Global equity funds attract record inflowsGlobal equity funds are attracting record inflows this year, with annualised investments reaching $1.4 trillion, according to Bank of America strategists led by Michael Hartnett.

• US equity funds attracted $656 billion, technology funds received $222 billion, and South Korean equity funds recorded $78 billion in inflows.
• BofA said these inflows provide significant support to equity markets, but noted that few investors are taking short positions or meaningfully underweighting equities despite bearish sentiment.
• The strategists said risk assets have struggled over the past six months as bullish investor positioning has collided with tighter monetary policy.
• BofA maintains a defensive stance until rate hikes end and financial conditions ease.
• The bank identified three conditions that could support a more favourable outlook: US crude oil prices falling below $70 a barrel, the US dollar reversing its recent gains and the 10-year US Treasury yield declining below 4.5%.

Goldman Sachs: 10-year US Treasury yield seen falling to 4.6% by end-2027Goldman Sachs strategists, including Kamakshya Trivedi, expect the 10-year US Treasury yield to decline to 4.6% by the end of 2027.

• The bank considers US Treasuries attractively valued, with yields offering compelling investment opportunities.
• Greater demand for Treasuries as a portfolio hedge and moderating inflation are expected to support bond prices and push yields lower.
• Goldman expects its yield forecast to remain below prevailing market consensus.
• However, strategists warned that the recent rise in Treasury yields is creating pressure across financial markets and that current elevated yield levels may be difficult to sustain.

Key takeaway: BofA highlights record equity inflows but remains cautious about market positioning and monetary tightening, while Goldman expects moderating inflation and stronger demand for bonds to bring long-term US Treasury yields lower.

US-India Trade Deal Nears Finalisation as Washington Assures Lower Tariffs for India

The United States has reportedly assured India that it will face lower tariffs than comparable countries under a trade agreement currently nearing finalisation, according to a person familiar with the negotiations.

• The first phase of the agreement, following nearly two years of negotiations, will cover goods only. Trade in services will be addressed in a subsequent phase.
• India and the US finalised a framework for the agreement earlier this year, but a formal pact has yet to be signed.
• A series of US trade investigations and tariff-related developments have complicated negotiations.
• Recent US measures allowing President Donald Trump to impose tariffs of up to 100% on major buyers of Russian oil added tensions. These tariffs have since been waived.
• Officials in New Delhi and Washington have recently indicated that most major issues have been resolved and the agreement is close to completion.
• Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal confirmed that a US delegation visited India in early November for trade discussions.
• Goyal described the outcome as a "very good agreement" and said India would have "one of the best agreements with the US".
• US Ambassador to India Sergio Gor also said last month that most major issues in the negotiations had been resolved.

Key takeaway: The proposed agreement could give Indian goods preferential tariff treatment in the US compared with those from comparable countries, although the final terms and formal signing remain pending.

ICICI Bank Expects Two More RBI Rate Hikes, Sees Repo Rate Rising in December and February

ICICI Bank expects the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to raise the repo rate by 25 basis points in December, followed by another 25-basis-point hike in February, as inflationary pressures remain elevated.

• India's retail inflation rose to 6.09% in October, up from 5.54% in September, crossing the RBI's upper tolerance limit of 6% and reaching its highest level since October 2024.
• ICICI Bank found that around 53% of the weighted CPI basket now has inflation above 4%, compared with 20% in March 2026.
• Nearly 70% of food items are recording inflation above 4%, with price pressures across pulses, cereals, edible oils, meat, milk and eggs.
• Core inflation, excluding gold and silver, increased to 3.8% from 3.2%, reflecting higher input costs being passed on and a low base following GST cuts.
• ICICI Bank identified a weak monsoon and elevated energy prices as two major supply-side shocks. Lower-than-expected kharif output and low reservoir levels have also increased risks to rabi crop production and food prices.
• The bank expects food inflation to remain elevated over the next few quarters, although a high base could help moderate it in the second half of FY28.
• ICICI Bank raised its FY27 CPI inflation forecast to 5.2% from 5.1% and its FY28 forecast to 5.0% from 4.9%.
• At its October 5–7 meeting, the RBI's Monetary Policy Committee unanimously raised the repo rate by 25 basis points to 5.50% and shifted its stance to calibrated tightening.
• Forecasts for the December policy decision remain divided. SBI Chairman CS Setty expects a 50-basis-point hike, while SBI economists now see a 25-basis-point increase. Jefferies expects a hike of 25–50 basis points.
• SBI economists have assigned a 50% probability to the December hike being the final increase in the current cycle.
• The RBI's next Monetary Policy Committee meeting is scheduled for December 2–4. Renewed foreign portfolio inflows and softer crude prices could also influence the decision.

Key takeaway: Persistent food and core inflation have strengthened expectations of further RBI tightening, but the size and duration of the rate-hike cycle remain uncertain.

SBI Sees Brent Crude Falling to $70 in 2027, Expects Smaller RBI Rate Hike in December

State Bank of India (SBI) expects Brent crude prices to ease to around $70 a barrel in 2027, supported by the possibility of a US-Iran peace deal and higher crude exports from the Middle East.

• SBI's Ecowrap report said easing geopolitical tensions, more predictable US policies after the midterm elections and rising Middle Eastern oil exports could bring prices closer to February 2026 levels.
• Brent crude has declined 11.1% since the US elections, according to BasisPoint Insight's reading of the report. Prices also slipped on November 12 amid hopes of renewed US-Iran peace talks.
• Oil prices surged after fighting between the US and Iran began in February, briefly eased in June and climbed again after a potential agreement collapsed. Brent reached around $115 a barrel approximately two weeks ago.
• Higher crude prices have increased inflationary pressure in India, which imports around 85% of its crude oil requirements.
• SBI has also revised its RBI policy outlook, now expecting a 25-basis-point repo rate hike in December, instead of a larger 50-basis-point increase.
• India's CPI inflation rose to 6.09% in October, crossing the RBI's 6% upper tolerance limit for the first time under the new series. SBI expects inflation to remain above 6% for another month before easing.
• The report cited a steadier rupee, the possibility of lower US-Iran tensions and softer US Treasury yields as factors supporting the smaller rate-hike outlook.
• Foreign investors have invested approximately $7.65 billion in Indian markets since November 6.
• SBI expects the repo rate to peak at around 6%, while assigning a 50% probability to a lower peak of 5.75%. It said another hike in February would be inadvisable given its proximity to the Union Budget.
• The bank also believes concerns about El Niño's impact on food inflation may be overstated, with effects likely to be concentrated in crops such as oilseeds, sugarcane and pulses.

Key takeaway: SBI sees the possibility of lower crude prices easing India's imported inflation pressure, potentially allowing the RBI to opt for a smaller rate hike in December.

NSEIX Global Access Adds Seven European Markets, Expanding Platform Beyond US Stocks

NSEIX Global Access has added seven European markets, including the UK, France, Germany and Switzerland, to its global investment platform, which previously offered access only to US stocks.

• The expansion, launched on November 12, brings the platform's offering to more than 11,500 securities, including over 8,200 UCITS ETFs, across seven countries through a single account.
• UCITS ETFs, which follow Europe's regulatory framework, provide exposure to global indices, sectors, themes and asset classes without requiring investors to select individual stocks. The company also highlighted potential tax advantages associated with the structure.
• The exact securities available have not yet been specified and will depend on platform listings and applicable regulations.
• Indian investors can fund their accounts through the RBI's Liberalised Remittance Scheme (LRS), which permits annual overseas remittances of up to $250,000 per person.
• Trades can start from $10, with accounts maintained in US dollars. A 20% Tax Collected at Source (TCS) applies once annual remittances exceed ₹10 lakh.
• The European rollout came later than the timeline indicated by NSEIX CEO V Balasubramaniam in February, when he said access to around 30 markets was expected within three to six months.
• NSEIX Global Access is a wholly owned subsidiary of NSE International Exchange and the first Indian entity registered as a Global Access Provider by the International Financial Services Centres Authority (IFSCA).
• Earlier this month, NSE International Exchange extended trading hours to 23.5 hours a day, from 3:15 am to 2:45 am IST the following day, covering Asian, European and US market sessions.

Key takeaway: The expansion gives Indian investors access to a broader range of international securities, particularly European-listed UCITS ETFs, through a single GIFT City-based platform.

India's Trade Deficit Widens to $39.88 Billion in October as Gold and Crude Imports Surge

• India's merchandise trade deficit widened to $39.88 billion in October 2026, compared with $30.21 billion in September, according to government data released on Friday.
• Merchandise imports hit a record $89.35 billion, outpacing record exports of $49.47 billion.
• Gold imports nearly tripled to $5.51 billion from $1.8 billion in September as jewellers and consumers increased purchases ahead of Diwali.
• Higher crude oil import costs, driven partly by disruptions in energy markets due to the Middle East conflict, also contributed to the increase in imports. India sources nearly 85% of its crude oil requirements from overseas.
• The trade deficit was wider than Bloomberg's median forecast of $33.30 billion, but remained below the October 2025 record of $42.58 billion.
• Trade Secretary Rajesh Agrawal said India recorded its highest-ever monthly merchandise exports in October. Shipments benefited from new export markets and trade agreements with the UK and New Zealand.
• From April to October, merchandise exports increased nearly 22% to $309.06 billion, while imports rose 16% to $527.21 billion. The cumulative merchandise trade deficit stood at $218.15 billion.
• Services exports were estimated at $40.51 billion against imports of $20.72 billion, generating a surplus of $19.79 billion.
• Including services, India's total exports reached $89.99 billion in October, while the overall trade deficit narrowed to $20.09 billion.
• The US remained India's largest export market. Merchandise exports to the country rose 14.5% to $59.52 billion during April-October.
• Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal said only a few issues remain unresolved in negotiations on the first phase of the India-US trade agreement.

Key takeaway: Record exports were unable to offset surging gold and crude imports, widening India's merchandise trade deficit and potentially adding pressure on the rupee through higher demand for foreign currency.

Cloudflare and Claude Face Service Disruptions as Microsoft 365 Outage Continues

• Users of Cloudflare and Anthropic's AI chatbot Claude reported service disruptions on Friday, November 13, adding to the ongoing Microsoft 365 outage affecting Outlook and other workplace applications.
• The simultaneous incidents triggered concerns about a wider internet disruption, with searches for “Cloudflare down”, “Claude down” and “Outlook not working” gaining traction.
• Cloudflare outage: The company reported elevated error rates affecting its Durable Objects service in North America. The incident was marked as resolved at 3:44 UTC on November 13.
• Durable Objects is a Cloudflare service that allows developers to build applications requiring persistent data storage and coordination between users or processes.
• Cloudflare also listed scheduled maintenance at data centres in Chicago, Frankfurt, Boston and Sioux Falls, although no confirmed connection to the Microsoft outage was established.
• Claude disruption: Anthropic users faced problems with the chatbot's Microsoft 365 connector, affecting access to workplace emails, calendars and search functions.
• Some users also reported difficulties connecting Microsoft accounts and accessing the Claude for Outlook add-in.
• The Claude disruption was primarily related to Microsoft 365 integrations and did not necessarily indicate that its core chatbot service was unavailable.
• Anthropic linked the connector-related problems to the disruption affecting Microsoft's services.

Key takeaway: Cloudflare, Claude and Microsoft 365 experienced overlapping service disruptions, but the incidents did not appear to share a common cause. The Cloudflare issue was resolved, while Claude's integration problems were linked to Microsoft's separate outage.

Iran Claims Destruction of US Early-Warning Radar in Bahrain as Regional Tensions Escalate

• Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) claimed on Friday, November 13, that it had destroyed a US military early-warning radar installation in Bahrain.
• The IRGC described the strike as retaliation for an alleged US air attack on a telecommunications tower in Sirik, Hormozgan province, southern Iran.
• Neither Washington nor Manama had immediately confirmed the reported destruction of the radar system.
• According to Iranian state media, a telecommunications tower in Sirik was hit by what it described as "enemy fire" on Thursday.
• The reported Bahrain strike marks a potential escalation in Iran's confrontation with US military assets in the Gulf region.
• Other reported military activity: US forces have carried out limited strikes on Qeshm Island and other coastal areas near the Strait of Hormuz in recent days. US officials described the operations as defensive.
• Maritime tensions: Iranian state television reported fires involving multiple oil tankers near the Strait of Hormuz, while the Iranian military claimed two vessels had struck naval mines. These incidents have not been independently established.
• Iran's warning: The IRGC called the Bahrain operation a serious warning against aerial provocations and alleged oil smuggling through the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian security chief Mohsen Rezaei also warned that military bases involved in a renewed conflict could become targets.
• US position: US Central Command continues to enforce a naval blockade on Iranian ports while maintaining a southern corridor for commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has said economic pressure on Iran is working without the need for large-scale military operations.
• Regional escalation risks: President Donald Trump has indicated a preference for avoiding renewed large-scale conflict but has not ruled out military action if diplomacy fails. Israeli media have also reported increased military preparations for a possible attack on Iran.

Key takeaway: Iran's claimed strike on a US radar installation in Bahrain raises the risk of further escalation across the Gulf, particularly around US military assets and the strategically important Strait of Hormuz. The reported destruction remains unconfirmed by the US and Bahrain.

BREAKING: Iran's IRGC Claims Strike on US Early Warning Radar in Bahrain bigbreakingwire.in

India's Manufacturing Incentive Programme Achieves Just 28% of Its Job Creation Target

• India's flagship Production-Linked Incentive (PLI) programme is falling significantly short of its employment goals, despite making stronger progress on investment and production, according to an assessment by government think tank NITI Aayog.
• The schemes, covering 14 sectors including mobile phones, textiles and automobile components, have achieved:
  • 76% of their investment target.
  • 64% of their production target.
  • Just 28% of their employment target.
• The findings highlight the challenge of converting manufacturing investments and expanded production capacity into jobs for India's large and growing workforce.
• The government has committed billions of dollars in incentives to attract manufacturers, strengthen domestic supply chains and establish India as a global manufacturing hub. Companies such as Apple and Samsung have benefited from the programme.
• However, NITI Aayog cautioned against treating the employment gap as evidence of programme failure, noting that investment and production generally precede hiring.
• With 42% of the combined implementation period still remaining, the think tank said employment generation could accelerate as manufacturing facilities become fully operational.
• The assessment also called for closer scrutiny of schemes that have achieved less than half of their respective targets.
• India's employment challenge remains significant. Official data put unemployment among people aged 15–29 at around 10% in 2025.
• Estimates from Azim Premji University indicate that nearly 40% of graduates aged 15–25 are unemployed, while the figure is around one-fifth among those aged 25–29.

Key takeaway: India's PLI programme is attracting investment and boosting manufacturing output, but job creation remains a major weakness as the country struggles to generate enough employment for its young population.

IEA Warns Global Oil Market Could Return to Supply Glut in Q4 as Gulf Exports Recover

• The International Energy Agency (IEA) said the global oil market is expected to return to a supply surplus in the fourth quarter of 2026 as Middle Eastern exports recover faster than demand.
• Global oil supply is projected to average 105 million barrels per day (bpd) in Q4, exceeding expected demand by 1.7 million bpd.
• The agency had previously forecast a supply shortage for the quarter. It said global supply is now exceeding demand for the first time since the start of the war with Iran.
• The recovery in Gulf exports is continuing despite ongoing attacks on shipping.

Russian Oil Production and Exports Rebound

• Russia's crude oil production increased by 210,000 bpd in October to 8.73 million bpd, according to the IEA.
• Russian petroleum product exports rose by 260,000 bpd to 1.49 million bpd, the highest level since June.
• Diesel and gasoil shipments doubled to 270,000 bpd.
• Russia partially eased diesel export restrictions on October 10 following an agreement between President Vladimir Putin and US President Donald Trump to increase supplies to global markets.
• Russian diesel and gasoil loadings reached 1.13 million metric tonnes in October, according to Kpler data cited by the IEA, exceeding the reported 300,000-tonne commitment.
• Turkey received approximately 240,000 tonnes, while Brazil received 160,000 tonnes.
• No Russian diesel shipments have yet arrived in the United States.

Key takeaway: Recovering Middle Eastern exports and rising Russian oil supplies are changing the global market outlook, with the IEA now expecting a substantial supply surplus in Q4.

Microsoft 365 Outage Continues Into Friday, Disrupting Outlook, Teams and Copilot Worldwide

• Microsoft's global Microsoft 365 outage, which began around midday on Thursday, November 12, remained unresolved early Friday, with the company yet to provide a timeline for full recovery.
• The disruption affected Outlook, Teams, Microsoft 365 Copilot, SharePoint, Exchange Online and other services, preventing users from accessing emails, inboxes, files and calendars.
• Outlook problem reports peaked at nearly 140,000 globally around 18:00 GMT on Thursday, according to Downdetector data cited by the BBC.
• Microsoft said several servers had become unexpectedly unavailable, placing additional pressure on the remaining infrastructure.
• The company identified an overwhelmed process responsible for establishing secure connections on affected servers, causing them to stop processing requests.
• Microsoft paused deployments, restarted servers and began reversing a network settings change that may have contributed to the disruption.
• Recovery has been uneven. Microsoft warned that some servers restored to service could become unresponsive again when they receive traffic.
• Teams messaging and online meetings largely continued working, although some users experienced problems accessing files and calendar information.
• The outage also disrupted connectors linking OpenAI's ChatGPT and Anthropic's Claude to Microsoft 365 data.
• Government offices and businesses were affected, including federal agencies and offices on Capitol Hill in the US.
• Electric truck manufacturer Workhorse Group postponed its third-quarter earnings report to November 16, citing the outage.
• Microsoft has not indicated that the disruption was caused by a cyberattack.

Key takeaway: The prolonged outage highlights the dependence of businesses and government institutions on Microsoft's cloud infrastructure, with recovery still uncertain more than 12 hours after the disruption began.

Delhi AQI Crosses 400 as 33 Monitoring Stations Record Severe Air Quality

• Delhi's average Air Quality Index (AQI) crossed 400 on Friday morning, entering the severe category, as pollution levels worsened across the capital.
• According to CPCB data, 33 of Delhi's 58 monitoring stations recorded severe air quality readings.
• IIT Delhi recorded the highest AQI at 487 at 6 am, followed by Chandni Chowk and Delhi University's North Campus at 476 each. Pusa recorded 468.
• Pollution levels were also elevated across neighbouring NCR cities. At 5 am, Ghaziabad recorded an AQI of 377, Noida 369 and Gurugram 349.
• Some locations reported even higher readings, with Noida's Sector 62 at 472 and Gurugram's Gwal Pahari at 445.
• GRAP Stage III restrictions remain in force across Delhi-NCR. Schools in Noida, Greater Noida and Ghaziabad have shifted classes up to Class V to hybrid mode.
• Construction and demolition activities have been suspended in Ghaziabad until November 20. Gautam Buddh Nagar authorities have also directed strict enforcement of construction restrictions.
• The India Meteorological Department expects air quality to remain in the very poor to severe range until November 16.
• Children and elderly people have been advised to remain indoors, as severe air pollution can affect even healthy individuals and worsen existing respiratory conditions.

Key takeaway: Delhi-NCR is facing another severe pollution spell, with widespread high AQI readings and restrictions continuing as authorities prepare for several more days of poor air quality.

Adani Green Faces Scrutiny Over 99% Cost Reduction in Maharashtra Pumped Storage Project

• Adani Green Energy's Tarali Pumped Storage Project in Maharashtra is facing scrutiny after the company reportedly revised its estimated project cost from ₹5,675 crore to ₹56.75 crore, a reduction of 99%.
• The project covers 150.74 hectares of non-forest land in Patan taluka, Satara district, and falls within the deemed eco-sensitive zone of Koyna Wildlife Sanctuary, part of the Sahyadri Tiger Reserve.
• The revised estimate was submitted through a notarised affidavit by Adani Green COO Naresh Telgu on September 8, 2026. The company said the earlier figure was based on an analogous estimation.
• In February 2026, the State Board for Wildlife had required a deposit equivalent to 4% of the project cost. Following acceptance of the revised estimate by Maharashtra's chief wildlife warden on October 12, the wildlife deposit was reduced to ₹2.27 crore.
• Adani Green has paid ₹56.75 lakh, with the remaining ₹1.7075 crore due after approval from the National Board for Wildlife.
• The matter came under scrutiny after Satara honorary wildlife warden Rohan Bhate filed a complaint on October 30.
• On November 6, the Union Environment Ministry asked Maharashtra to investigate the matter as a priority. The deputy director of Koyna Wildlife Sanctuary was also asked to examine it.
• Congress general secretary Jairam Ramesh called the matter a “scandal of gigantic proportions” and renewed the party's demand for a Joint Parliamentary Committee (JPC) investigation.
• The Adani Group said the project is located on private land, does not involve forest land and will not harm downstream ecology. However, its spokesperson did not address the revised project cost.

Key takeaway: The nearly 99% reduction in the declared project cost has sharply lowered the wildlife deposit, prompting scrutiny from environmental authorities and political opposition. The allegations remain subject to investigation.

SBI Pension Fund Plans to Increase State Bond Purchases as Yield Premium Expected to Widen

• SBI Pension Fund, which manages approximately $64 billion in assets, plans to increase its purchases of state government bonds, expecting their yield premium over central government securities to widen further, reports Bloomberg.
• Chief Investment Officer Sandeep Pandey said the fund is following a carry-focused fixed-income strategy, targeting steady income from higher-yielding securities rather than relying on capital gains.
• State bonds currently offer an attractive yield premium over comparable 10-year central government bonds. The spread had narrowed to around 60 basis points, after reaching 90 basis points in April.
• The fund expects state bond supply to increase in the fourth quarter as states step up infrastructure spending towards the end of the financial year.
• SBI Pension Fund held approximately 17% of its total assets in state bonds as of late October.
• The fund has shortened its portfolio duration and increased cash holdings to manage elevated interest rates.
• Beyond state debt, it favours highly rated corporate bonds with maturities of around five years and plans to increase exposure to large-cap equities.

Key takeaway: SBI Pension Fund is positioning for potentially higher returns from state government debt as bond supply rises and yield spreads are expected to widen. 

Piyush Goyal Says India Is Negotiating One of the “Best” Trade Deals With the US

• Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal said India is negotiating one of the “best” trade agreements with the US, promising favourable market access for Indian goods.
• Goyal said Indian products of interest would receive preferential market access compared with similar products from countries at comparable levels of economic development.
• India and the US finalised a framework for the first phase of their Bilateral Trade Agreement (BTA) in February 2026. However, changes in the US tariff regime have required further negotiations.
• Goyal said discussions are ongoing and the timeline for concluding the agreement will depend on several factors.
• A recent two-member US delegation primarily held discussions with Indian customs authorities. The visit focused on the customs-related track of the negotiations, led by the US Deputy Chief Negotiator.

Key takeaway: India is seeking preferential access to the US market as negotiations continue, but the final timeline and terms of the trade agreement remain uncertain.

Billionaire Investor Leo KoGuan Backs Jensen Huang, Says He Won’t Buy More Nvidia Shares Without Him

• Billionaire investor and Nvidia shareholder Leo KoGuan publicly backed CEO Jensen Huang on Friday, saying he would stop buying Nvidia shares if the company changed leadership.
• “Without Jensen Huang, I will not invest further,” KoGuan said in a text message.
• KoGuan disclosed that he has invested approximately $1.3 billion in Nvidia and began building his position in March 2026. The exact size of his current holdings could not be independently verified.
• In a series of posts on X, KoGuan described Huang as a “supreme creator”. He acknowledged that the CEO has made mistakes but argued that the company should prioritise rewarding his contributions rather than punishing him.
• US President Donald Trump also commented on the controversy, saying he had spoken to Huang on Thursday and describing him as a “fine man”.
• Trump said Huang was particularly concerned about the impact of the controversy on his wife and family.
• Asked whether Huang should have stepped down, Trump said the key question was whether the woman involved was a spy. He added that his view could differ depending on whether that allegation was established.
• Trump expressed confidence that Huang would eventually recover from the situation, saying he knew him well.

Key takeaway: KoGuan’s public backing highlights investor support for Jensen Huang, while Trump’s comments add another dimension to the ongoing controversy surrounding Nvidia’s leadership.

Sensex and Nifty Fall as October Inflation at 6.09% Fuels RBI Rate Hike Bets

• Indian equity markets fell in early trade on Friday, ending a three-day rally, with banking, auto and realty stocks facing the biggest selling pressure.
• India's retail inflation rose to 6.09% in October, up from 5.54% in September, reaching its highest level in two years.
• Food inflation accelerated to 8.94%, compared with 7.74% in September. Economists polled by Reuters had expected headline inflation of 5.93%.
• Inflation has remained above the Reserve Bank of India's 4% medium-term target for five consecutive months, with prices rising across 11 of the 12 major CPI categories.
• The higher-than-expected inflation reading has strengthened expectations of another 25-basis-point repo rate hike at the RBI's December policy review.
• The RBI raised the repo rate by 25 basis points to 5.50% in October, its first rate increase in nearly four years.
• The next Monetary Policy Committee meeting is scheduled for December 2–4, with the policy decision due on December 4.

Key takeaway: Rising food and retail inflation is putting pressure on India's equity markets and strengthening expectations of further RBI tightening, with the December 4 policy decision now in focus.

18 Crypto Firms Join Legal Fight Against Illinois' 0.2% Digital Asset Tax

• A coalition of 18 cryptocurrency companies and organisations, led by Andreessen Horowitz, Paradigm, Uniswap Labs and the DeFi Education Fund, filed an amicus brief on November 12 in Sangamon County Circuit Court, supporting lawsuits challenging Illinois' Digital Asset Tax Act.
• The proposed legislation imposes a 0.2% tax on digital asset transactions, drawing opposition from crypto businesses, traditional financial institutions and federal authorities.
• The US Department of Justice filed a statement of interest on November 6, arguing that the tax is vague, discriminatory and inconsistent with federal policy.
• The US Chamber of Commerce and the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association (SIFMA) also opposed the measure, warning that it could extend to traditional banks, custodians and asset managers.
• Opponents argue that the legislation is unconstitutionally vague and difficult for decentralised finance (DeFi) developers and non-custodial service providers to comply with.
• They also argue that the tax unfairly targets digital assets while comparable transactions involving stocks, gold and traditional currencies are not subject to the same levy.
• The legal challenge follows lawsuits filed by The Digital Chamber, the Blockchain Association and the Crypto Council for Innovation.
• Illinois officials have agreed to delay the tax's implementation and enforcement by six months, moving the start date from January 1, 2027, to July 1, 2027, while litigation continues.

Key takeaway: Crypto firms, Wall Street organisations and the US Justice Department are challenging Illinois' proposed digital asset tax, raising broader questions about state-level crypto regulation and its impact on DeFi and traditional financial institutions.

Microsoft Outage Disrupts Outlook and Teams for Nearly 10 Hours Worldwide

• Microsoft experienced a major service outage on Thursday, disrupting Outlook and Teams for approximately 10 hours and affecting businesses, government agencies and enterprise users worldwide.
• Microsoft said recovery efforts were progressing more slowly than expected due to persistent traffic-management imbalances and server capacity constraints.
• The company said it was exploring alternative solutions to increase system capacity and restore normal services.
• Downdetector recorded more than 130,000 reports of Outlook problems in the US at the peak around 1 PM ET on Thursday. Reports remained above 25,000 by 9:30 PM ET.
• Several Microsoft services also experienced disruptions across the Asia-Pacific region, including India, Australia and Japan, early Friday morning.
• Australia's Cyber Security Minister said Microsoft believed the incident was not caused by a cyberattack.
• The disruption was reportedly similar to an earlier CrowdStrike-related outage, which involved a problem during a software update.

Key takeaway: The prolonged outage exposed the dependence of businesses and government agencies on Microsoft's cloud services, raising fresh concerns about enterprise technology reliability.

India’s Russian Fossil Fuel Imports Hit Record €6.4 Billion in October

• India purchased a record €6.4 billion worth of Russian fossil fuels in October 2026, the highest monthly value since data collection began in January 2022, according to the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA).
• Crude oil accounted for 91% of the purchases, worth approximately €5.8 billion. Coal imports stood at €333 million, while oil products totalled €232 million.
• India's Russian crude imports increased 10% from September, with purchases rising across its three largest importing refineries:
  • Reliance Industries' Jamnagar refinery: +22%
  • Indian Oil Corporation's Paradip refinery: +28%
  • Nayara Energy's Vadinar refinery: +12%
• The increase made Reliance Industries' Jamnagar refinery the largest importer of seaborne Russian crude again. Russian oil accounted for 30% of its crude imports between August and October, CREA said.
• Higher prices and transportation costs contributed significantly to the record import bill. Russia's Urals crude averaged $101.7 per barrel in October, up 13% from September and its highest monthly average since October 2021.
• The Urals price was more than double the EU-UK price cap of $44.1 per barrel, which took effect on February 1, 2026. Its discount to Brent narrowed slightly to $23 per barrel.
• The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, higher freight and insurance costs, rising crude prices and a weaker rupee added to India's import expenses.
• China remained the largest buyer of Russian fossil fuels at €10.7 billion, followed by India at €6.4 billion. The European Union ranked third at €2.2 billion and Turkey fourth at €1.1 billion.
• CREA also reported that refineries in India, Turkey and Brunei exported €1.6 billion worth of oil products to countries sanctioning Russia. This included €1.2 billion to the EU and €94 million to the US. An estimated €389 million worth of these products was made from Russian crude.
• All US-bound oil products in the reported figures came from Reliance's Jamnagar refinery, CREA said.

Key takeaway: India's Russian fossil fuel purchases reached a record value in October, driven by higher crude prices, increased volumes and shipping costs. Reliance's Jamnagar refinery remained the biggest importer of seaborne Russian crude.

Chinese-Speaking Hackers Use AI Framework to Target 19 Organisations, Unit 42 Reports

• Palo Alto Networks' Unit 42 reported that Chinese-speaking attackers used an open-source AI framework called Cairn, paired with Chinese AI models DeepSeek and Zhipu GLM, to conduct cyberattacks against 19 organisations within approximately two weeks.
• The targets included seven organisations in the semiconductor and advanced-manufacturing supply chain, three linked to defence or defence policy, and four human rights and civil society groups.
• The Cairn framework autonomously planned, executed and documented attacks after receiving a target and an objective. Attackers reportedly used a Chinese-language preamble falsely claiming that the operations were authorised security tests.
• Unit 42 said neither AI model refused the malicious requests. It assessed with moderate confidence that the campaign, tracked as CL-STA-1238, was linked to Chinese intelligence collection.
• At a US teachers' union, attackers reportedly accessed more than one million member records, approximately 31,000 CRM contacts and staff password hashes. At an industry standards organisation, they overwrote a live standards-ballot document.
• Separately, Symantec reported an AI-assisted intrusion targeting a US retailer in September. Attackers switched from unsuccessful manually entered commands to lengthy, error-free PowerShell scripts that appeared to contain AI-generated reasoning.
• Symantec said the rapid execution suggested a human operator was relaying information to an AI tool rather than using a fully autonomous agent. The company has investigated dozens of AI-assisted attacks since May.
• Arctic Wolf Labs also identified attacks using AntiFox, a Chinese-language agentic penetration-testing platform, against Microsoft IIS servers and AWS environments. In one incident, attackers made hundreds of API requests within roughly 30 minutes and retrieved a production secret.
• AWS said its services were not compromised and that attackers had used credentials stolen from customers' compromised applications.
• Unit 42 noted that the attacks relied on familiar weaknesses, including weak credentials and outdated software vulnerabilities, suggesting AI increased the scale and speed of exploitation rather than the technical complexity.

Key takeaway: AI is increasingly being used to automate real-world cyberattacks, allowing attackers to operate faster and at greater scale. Weak credentials and unpatched vulnerabilities remain major entry points.

Michael Burry Doubles Nasdaq 100 Bets Against AI and Semiconductor Stocks

• Michael Burry, the investor known for predicting the 2008 financial crisis, has doubled his Nasdaq 100 put position and increased his bearish exposure to semiconductor stocks, according to his Substack newsletter.
• Burry said he used a rebound in the Nasdaq 100 from the 27,000 level to double his put position, targeting an early 2027 expiry with a strike approximately 20% below the market level.
• He also repurchased 25% of a semiconductor ETF put position expiring in June that he had previously reduced.
• Burry is targeting the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH), which has Nvidia as its largest holding. He said semiconductor valuations still have room to fall and expects earnings across the fund's holdings to decline over the next couple of years.
• He prefers shorting SMH over the iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX), arguing that SOXX has larger exposures to AMD and Broadcom, which he believes could benefit if Nvidia's market dominance weakens.
• Burry also highlighted companies including Nebius, TSMC, ASML and CoreWeave, arguing that they benefited from Nvidia's market power and could face a changing competitive environment.
• His bearish positioning comes amid reports of a US Department of Justice antitrust investigation involving Nvidia. Semafor reported that the DOJ is conducting multiple probes involving Nvidia and other companies, although there was no indication of planned criminal charges against Nvidia or Jensen Huang.
• Super Micro Computer shares reportedly fell approximately 12% following the reports.
• Nvidia is scheduled to report its quarterly earnings on November 17, adding another key event for investors to watch.

Key takeaway: Burry is increasing bearish bets on the Nasdaq 100 and semiconductor sector, citing stretched valuations, earnings concerns and potential regulatory pressure on Nvidia. His positioning signals caution toward the AI trade, but does not establish that a broader semiconductor downturn is inevitable.

Fed Officials Signal Further Rate Hikes as Inflation Remains Elevated

• San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said further monetary tightening may be necessary to bring inflation under control, warning that price pressures remain broad-based and are not limited to tariffs or oil prices.
• Daly said an increasing number of businesses are planning to pass higher input costs on to consumers, indicating growing willingness to raise prices.
• She supported the Fed's September rate hike and its decision to hold rates unchanged in October.
• Daly said AI infrastructure spending is pushing up prices in some areas, but its overall contribution to inflation remains moderate, with limited cost increases and little spillover into other sectors.
• She remains optimistic that AI could boost productivity over the long term, although it is too early to determine when those gains will materialise.
• New York Fed President John Williams also warned that inflation remains too high and said policymakers must take further action in the coming period to bring it sustainably back to the Fed's 2% target.
• Williams cautioned that rate decisions must not unnecessarily weaken the labour market, adding that the US economy does not currently appear to be significantly out of balance.
• According to CME FedWatch data cited in the report, markets assign an 84.7% probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike in December and a 15.3% probability of a 50-basis-point increase.
• For cumulative rate increases through January, the probabilities stand at 24.4% for 25 basis points, 64.7% for 50 basis points and 10.9% for 75 basis points.

Key takeaway: Persistent inflation and businesses' plans to pass on higher costs are strengthening the case for further Fed tightening. Markets are currently pricing in a December rate hike, while policymakers remain mindful of risks to employment.

US Fiscal Deficit Jumps 42% to $404 Billion in October as Spending Rises

• The US federal budget deficit reached $404 billion in October 2026, marking a 42% increase year-on-year and the first month of fiscal year 2027, according to US Treasury Department data.
• Government spending rose 12% to $773 billion, while tax revenue fell 9% to $369 billion.
• Tariff revenue dropped approximately 39% year-on-year to $19.2 billion.
• Higher military spending, healthcare costs and interest payments on national debt contributed to the increase in expenditure.
• Tax receipts were weighed down by lower tariff collections and corporate tax refunds.
• The Treasury projects the fiscal deficit for FY2027 could rise slightly to approximately $2.2 trillion.
• The US recorded a deficit of $1.99 trillion in the previous fiscal year, equivalent to around 6% of GDP.

Key takeaway: The sharp increase in October's deficit highlights mounting pressure from government spending and debt-servicing costs, alongside weaker revenue collections. A projected $2.2 trillion deficit would keep US fiscal sustainability in focus.