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• The US trade deficit stood at $105 billion in September, compared with market expectations of $108 billion and a revised previous deficit of $105.6 billion.
• US exports increased to $321.5 billion from $315.2 billion in August, while imports rose to $426.6 billion from $420.8 billion.
• The US Treasury set its quarterly refinancing target at $125 billion, in line with expectations. It will auction $42 billion in 10 year Treasury notes and $25 billion in 30 year Treasury bonds. A separate $58 billion auction of three year Treasury notes is scheduled for November 9.
• The Treasury removed the phrase "at least" from its guidance on maintaining stable auction sizes, saying it expects to keep the size of interest bearing Treasury securities and floating rate note auctions unchanged in the coming quarters.
• The department expects to increase short term Treasury bill auction sizes in January, reduce them in December and potentially issue short term cash management bills in late November.
• The Treasury will convert seven year auctions into quarterly new issues with two reopenings. TIPS auction sizes will remain unchanged.
• The Treasury is targeting $70 billion in repurchase agreements this quarter to support market liquidity and will continue evaluating potential improvements to its repo operations, including the maximum purchase amount.
• The Treasury General Account cash balance could peak at $1.03 trillion in late November and again in late January.

• Qualcomm and SpaceX have signed a multi year agreement to develop tens of thousands of base stations for SpaceX’s planned nationwide terrestrial 5G wireless network in the US.
• SpaceX will use Qualcomm’s Dragonwing hardware components for base station deployment, supporting voice calls and data transmission. It will also use Qualcomm’s proprietary software to control the network.
• Deployment is scheduled to begin next year, marking another step in SpaceX’s efforts to challenge major US mobile network operators.
• Qualcomm Executive Vice President Durga Malladi said the planned deployment would be comparable in scale to the existing networks of major US wireless operators.
• Malladi added that SpaceX was highly committed to the project and Qualcomm had strong confidence in its execution.

• US private sector employment increased by 86,000 in October, according to ADP, beating market expectations of 67,000 to 69,000. The previous month's increase was 90,000.
• ADP said hiring activity expanded for the second consecutive month, with employers across businesses of different sizes adding jobs.
• However, the professional and business services sector recorded job losses for the third consecutive month, highlighting continued weakness in parts of the labour market.
• ADP Chief Economist Nela Richardson said employees changing jobs benefited from higher base salaries, bonuses, overtime and longer working hours.
• Pay for workers changing jobs increased by 7.6%, the fastest annual growth since March 2024.
• Ahead of the report, CME FedWatch data showed an 81.2% probability of a 25 basis point Fed rate hike in December, compared with an 18.8% probability of rates remaining unchanged. For January, markets priced in a 65.5% probability of a cumulative 25 basis point hike and a 20.5% probability of a 50 basis point increase.

• The Indian government has approved major changes to the Agnipath military recruitment programme, extending the service period for new recruits and creating opportunities for more of them to continue as regular military personnel.
• The move partially reverses the most controversial feature of the four year contract system, under which only 25% of each batch of Agniveers were eligible for permanent service after completing their tenure.
• The changes have been approved by the Union Cabinet led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
• The Agnipath scheme was introduced in June 2022 to rejuvenate the armed forces, reduce the average age of personnel and lower the government's salary and pension burden.
• The policy adjustment comes amid continuing border tensions between India and Pakistan, putting additional pressure on the country's defence preparedness.

• US President Donald Trump said he would decide on any further military action against Iran depending on how the situation develops.
• Speaking on a programme broadcast on Politico’s website on November 4, Trump said the US would consider further action if an opportunity arose and it was in the country’s best interests.
• Asked whether he would use nuclear weapons against Iran, Trump replied, “I don't need to use nuclear weapons. We've destroyed 90% of their strength.”

• New Delhi was covered in thick smog on Wednesday as winter air pollution intensified ahead of Diwali, which is a week away. Fireworks during the festival typically add to the pollution.
• According to the Central Pollution Control Board, Delhi’s AQI stood at 379 at 10 am on Wednesday, placing it near the upper end of the ‘Very Poor’ category.
• The average PM2.5 concentration reached 277 µg/m³, around 18 times the World Health Organization’s recommended 24 hour average guideline.
• Manoj Kumar, an analyst at the Centre for Energy and Clean Air Research, said authorities continue to treat Delhi’s pollution as a temporary problem rather than a year round issue. He added that public concern rises mainly when pollution becomes severe and visibility deteriorates.
• Delhi has recorded only one day of ‘Good’ air quality so far in 2026, highlighting the persistent nature of the pollution problem.

• Wind and solar stocks climbed across Asia, Europe and US premarket trading on Wednesday after Democrats won control of both the Senate and House in the US midterm elections. Investors expect a Democratic Congress to adopt a more supportive approach towards renewable energy after the industry faced pressure under President Donald Trump.
• Denmark’s offshore wind developer Orsted surged as much as 8.1%. Vestas Wind Systems and SMA Solar Technology also gained, while solar and battery related stocks benefited from expectations of continued federal support for clean energy.
• In the US, First Solar, Sunrun, Enphase and NextEra Energy are among the companies analysts see as potential beneficiaries of a strong Democratic showing.
• Defence stocks moved in the opposite direction. Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman and RTX each fell more than 2% in premarket trading. European defence companies BAE Systems, Thales and Rheinmetall also declined.
• Investors are concerned that Democrats could bring military spending under closer scrutiny. Trump’s proposed $1.5 trillion defence budget for fiscal 2027 has not yet been approved, and control of Congress could influence the final funding outcome.
• Renewable energy stocks are also benefiting from a rotation away from artificial intelligence related shares, adding to the positive sentiment across the clean energy sector.

Iran Rejects US Response on Hormuz Reopening as Trump Calls Qeshm Island Strike a 'Minor Attack'

• Iran said Washington's response to its seven conditions for reopening the Strait of Hormuz was "not convincing". The conditions reportedly include lifting US sanctions.
• US President Donald Trump described Monday's strike on Iran's Qeshm Island as a "minor attack", saying it targeted a newly built anti aircraft facility. He added that it "wasn't war".
• A US official told Reuters that the strikes were limited in scope.
• However, US media reports indicate that US Central Command has prepared plans for larger strikes against Iran, which could begin as early as Wednesday.
• The developments have raised concerns about a possible escalation of military action following the US midterm elections.

Alibaba and Tencent Face Severe NVIDIA Chip Shortage, Expect Just 1% of $70 Billion Orders

• Chinese technology companies, including Alibaba and Tencent, expect to receive only around 1% of their approximately $70 billion orders for NVIDIA's RTX Pro 5500 chips, Bloomberg reported.
• Buyers reportedly ordered around 6 million chips but expect to receive only tens of thousands over the next four months.
• The RTX Pro 5500 is among the most powerful workstation chips Chinese customers can legally purchase under current US export controls. Beijing has also signalled that it would approve such purchases.
• In October, Reuters reported that NVIDIA had warned partners they might receive only 5% to 10% of requested quantities as the company reallocates TSMC manufacturing capacity towards its next generation Rubin chips.

Iran's Supreme Leader Mujtaba Khamenei Accuses US of Seeking Regime Change and Splitting Iran

• Iran's Supreme Leader Mujtaba Khamenei accused the United States of pursuing a long standing campaign to weaken and force Iran into submission since the 1979 Islamic Revolution.
• He alleged that Washington had supported separatist groups, coup plotters and the People's Mojahedin Organization of Iran, which he accused of killing Iranian officials and civilians.
• Khamenei said recent US pressure had openly shifted towards efforts to divide Iran, force its people into submission, overthrow the government and destroy Iranian civilisation.
• He claimed these efforts had repeatedly faced strong resistance from Iranian authorities and the public, warning that the United States and governments aligned with it would ultimately pay a heavy price.
• Khamenei also said developments in the Persian Gulf, particularly around the Strait of Hormuz, had shattered the perceived myth of American invincibility.
• He argued that the situation had exposed the vulnerability of governments dependent on foreign support and demonstrated the inability or unwillingness of major powers to protect their regional allies.

NVIDIA Shares Rise Despite Democratic Election Victory as Strong Chip Demand Offsets AI Infrastructure Concerns

• NVIDIA shares rose on Wednesday despite concerns that Democratic election victories could lead to stricter scrutiny of data centre construction and AI infrastructure.
• Strong results from leading chipmakers have eased immediate concerns that delays in data centre construction could hurt NVIDIA and other hardware suppliers. Customers continue to stockpile AI hardware despite uncertainty over where and when it will be installed.
• Democratic victories in the Texas and Ohio gubernatorial races have increased the possibility of tougher state level scrutiny of AI infrastructure projects.
• UBS Global Wealth Management CIO Mark Haefele said greater congressional oversight would not necessarily derail the AI investment cycle. He noted that broad federal restrictions would face legislative and presidential constraints, while state and local regulations have a more direct impact on data centre locations and construction timelines.
• However, severe restrictions on AI data centres could create significant headwinds for NVIDIA and other companies in the AI supply chain.
• For now, investors are focusing on resilient demand for AI chips following recent market weakness.

RBI Forex Measures Cut Corporate Dollar Hedging, Banking Liquidity Improves and FEMA Reporting Rules Ease

• Forex market: Indian companies reduced forward dollar purchases by 35% in October to $49.5 billion, the lowest since February, according to Bloomberg. Purchases had reached a record in September.
• The decline followed the RBI's mid October measures requiring banks to maintain a 20% interest free cash reserve against rupee derivative positions exceeding $2 million and prohibiting the rebooking of cancelled contracts. These measures have increased the cost of currency hedging.
• Emkay economist Madhavi Arora told Reuters that forward premiums are "severely dislocated". Foreign investors also sold Indian bonds for a second consecutive month.
• Banking liquidity: Banks offered only ₹23,905 crore against the RBI's ₹50,000 crore target at Tuesday's overnight Variable Rate Reverse Repo (VRRR) auction, reflecting uneven distribution of surplus liquidity among lenders.
• The RBI accepted all bids at 5.49% and scheduled another ₹50,000 crore VRRR auction for Wednesday.
• Banking system liquidity surplus approached ₹2 lakh crore on November 2, reversing the tight conditions seen in late October. The overnight call rate eased to 5.45%, below the 5.50% repo rate.
• FEMA reporting rules: The RBI amended FEMA regulations to simplify reporting requirements for service exports and imports, with retrospective effect from October 1.
• Resident individuals exporting services will be deemed to have filed the Export Declaration Form (EDF), removing the need for separate filing.
• Companies and LLPs also receive similar relief for remittances up to ₹10 lakh. Banks will now report only larger non-individual service import transactions in the Import Data Processing and Monitoring System (IDPMS).

Indian Officials See US Midterm Results Easing Trade Tensions, Giving New Delhi More Leverage in Negotiations

• Indian officials believe the US midterm election results could ease trade pressure on New Delhi by strengthening congressional oversight of President Donald Trump's policies and limiting his ability to impose reciprocal tariffs unilaterally.
• Democrats secured decisive victories in both the House and Senate, increasing the likelihood of stronger congressional checks on Trump's trade and foreign policies.
• Officials said the outcome could give India more breathing room in trade negotiations and reduce pressure on New Delhi to accept terms it considers unfavourable.
• Trump's tariff policies and the Iran conflict have affected India, given its position as a major exporter to the US and a significant importer of Middle Eastern oil.
• However, officials cautioned that the election outcome could also introduce fresh uncertainty into an already fragile US India relationship.

US Treasury Yields Decline as Democrats' Expected House Victory Raises Fiscal Gridlock Prospects

• US Treasury yields fell across maturities during Wednesday's Asian trading session. According to Tradeweb data cited by The Wall Street Journal, the two year yield touched an intraday low of 4.546%, its lowest level in two months, before trading at 4.604%, down 0.8 basis points. The 10 year yield declined 1.5 basis points to 4.934%.
• Swedish bank economist and Fed watcher Elisabet Kopelman said a change in congressional control could make fiscal policy modestly more expansionary while making large spending measures, including Trump's proposed $1.5 trillion Pentagon request, harder to pass.
• She said the outcome could support bonds given the already high US budget deficits, but is unlikely to deliver lasting fiscal discipline. Neither party nor the president appears focused on reducing the deficit.
• Industrial Bank chief economist Jiayang Groen said Democratic control of the House would have the biggest market impact among possible midterm outcomes.
• He argued that losing control of the House and budget authority would make it harder for the Trump administration to push further tax cuts or expansionary fiscal measures. This could limit additional fiscal deterioration and reduce upward pressure on long term Treasury yields.
• However, a narrow Democratic majority would face constraints from Senate filibuster rules and the presidential veto, limiting its ability to increase spending.
• Separately, MissionSquare CIO Shari Hensrud warned that US employment data could be weaker than headline expectations suggest. Three of the past four payroll reports were revised down by around 150,000 jobs in total, while average monthly job gains over the past three months stood at roughly 50,000.
• Hensrud said the impact of higher energy prices, with Brent crude briefly approaching $118 per barrel in October, may not yet be fully reflected in employment data. The effects could emerge in November and December, potentially outweighing any boost from lower borrowing costs.

India Targets Nearly Threefold Increase in Power Plant Coal Stocks Ahead of Next Summer

• India has asked coal mining companies and the railway sector to help nearly triple coal stocks at thermal power plants ahead of next summer to prevent potential power shortages.
• The coal, power and railway sectors have jointly set a target to increase coal inventories from around 18 million tonnes currently to at least 55 million tonnes by the end of the fiscal year in March 2027.
• The target is aimed at ensuring adequate fuel supplies during peak summer electricity demand and avoiding disruptions caused by coal shortages.
• The planned inventory would bring coal stocks at power plants roughly in line with levels recorded during the same period last year.
• However, the ambitious stockpiling target could increase pressure on coal supplies and logistics, potentially creating tensions with other coal users.

US Treasury Yields Fall as Expected Democratic Control of Congress Reduces Rate Hike Bets

• Expectations of Democrats gaining control of both chambers of Congress have raised the prospect of political gridlock in Washington, potentially limiting government spending.
• Investors also expect tighter AI regulation to weigh on US economic growth, which could reduce the need for further Federal Reserve interest rate hikes.
• US Treasury prices rose on Wednesday as a result, pushing yields lower.
• The 10 year US Treasury yield fell around 5 basis points to 4.90%, while the 2 year yield slipped to 4.5458%, near a two month low.
• US equities also advanced as lower interest rate expectations supported investor sentiment.

RBI Constitutes Technical Consultative Committee for Financial Markets to Improve Market Efficiency and Liquidity

• The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has constituted a Technical Consultative Committee for Financial Markets (TCCFM) to strengthen engagement with market participants amid rapidly evolving financial markets and infrastructure.
• The committee will provide a platform for structured discussions on policy and operational issues related to money markets, government securities, foreign exchange markets and their respective derivatives markets.
• The committee will be chaired by the RBI Deputy Governor in charge of the Financial Markets Regulation Department (FMRD).
• External members include former SEBI Whole Time Member and IIT Bombay professor Ananth Narayan, FIMMDA Chairman Shamsher Singh, Axis Bank Executive Director Neeraj Gambhir, ICICI Bank's Shailendra Jhingan, Citibank India's Aditya Bagree, Clearing Corporation of India's Nand Kishore and Morgan Stanley India's Ridham Desai.
• Key areas of focus: Improving market functioning, efficiency, liquidity and resilience; deepening and broadening financial markets; reviewing trading, clearing, settlement and reporting infrastructure; and addressing emerging policy, operational and regulatory challenges.
• The committee will also examine international and domestic developments, financial innovations, emerging risks and macroeconomic issues affecting Indian financial markets.
• Meetings will be held at least once every quarter.

Asian Tech Stocks and US Treasuries Face Shifts as Democrats Move Towards Congressional Control

• Saxo Bank analyst Charu Chanana said a decisive Democratic victory in the US midterms has raised concerns about tighter regulation of Big Tech, stronger AI oversight and reduced fiscal stimulus, putting additional pressure on Asian technology stocks, particularly in Taiwan and South Korea.
• She said weakness is spreading across the AI supply chain, but demand for advanced chips remains intact. This suggests a repricing of market expectations rather than a breakdown in the AI growth story.
• Chanana warned that further declines are possible and advised against indiscriminate buying during the dip. She recommended distinguishing companies funding AI infrastructure from suppliers of critical technologies, while allowing long term investors to selectively add exposure during weakness.
• US Treasury prices rose on Wednesday as investors anticipated tighter federal spending and political gridlock amid expectations of Democrats gaining control of Congress. Falling equities also increased demand for safe haven government bonds.
• Investors also assessed whether tighter AI regulation could slow economic growth and reduce the need for further Federal Reserve rate hikes.
• Markets were relieved that the possibility of Trump's previously discussed $5,000 payment to every US adult had diminished. The proposal would have cost approximately $1.2 trillion, equivalent to around 16% of the federal budget.
• Barrenjoey chief rates strategist Andrew Lilly said markets had previously assigned roughly a 5% probability to the payment plan, warning that its implementation would have triggered a catastrophic reaction in the Treasury market.
• House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries is expected to become the next Speaker of the House. If elected, he would become the first African American Speaker in US history.

Democrats Projected to Win US House, Potentially Securing Largest Majority in Nearly Two Decades as Trump Blames Iran War for Republican Losses

• CBS News projects that Democrats have won control of the US House of Representatives, ending Republican control of both chambers of Congress. Democrats could secure their largest House majority in nearly 20 years.
• Regaining the House will allow Democrats to lead congressional committee investigations, increase oversight of the Trump administration and block parts of his legislative agenda.
• Speaking to The Wall Street Journal, President Donald Trump said the Iran war contributed to Republican losses but insisted he did not regret launching the conflict. He said he had tried for months to end the fighting and had complained to advisers that it had become a persistent problem.
• Trump blamed the biggest political damage on rising oil prices and higher US gasoline and diesel costs, rather than broader economic weakness or corruption allegations.
• He ruled out immediate personnel changes and defended Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth, who led the military operations, calling him “excellent”.
• In a Fox News interview, Trump warned that he would veto legislation he opposed, saying Democrats would submit “some crazy bills”. He suggested repeated vetoes could eventually bring Democrats back to the negotiating table, while adding that some Democrats had already contacted him.
• Trump also said it was too early to discuss potential candidates for the 2028 presidential election, but noted that there was a large pool of talent.
• Separately, Trump said he had discussed funding and support with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and that Netanyahu agreed with his position.

Trump Says Iran War Will End When He Decides, Signals Willingness to Work With Democrats

• US President Donald Trump congratulated Democrats on their midterm victories and said he was willing to work with them on several issues.
• Speaking to CBS, Trump said he hoped he would not need to use his veto power but warned that he would veto what he described as “crazy bills” if Democrats refused to cooperate. He said he had an “absolute veto”.
• On the Iran conflict, Trump said the war would end “when I say it will”. According to The Wall Street Journal, he also said he did not regret launching the war.
• Trump acknowledged that the Iran conflict may have contributed to Republican losses, saying voters might be unwilling to accept short term increases in gasoline prices. However, he argued that Americans recognised his administration's achievements in dealing with Iran.
• Trump said he did not expect to replace members of his Cabinet and rejected the suggestion that the electoral defeat was related to his administration's personnel.
• He added that he expected some Republican candidates to perform better and said he did not feel guilty about the election outcome.

Asian Currencies Rise as Democratic Gains Weigh on Dollar and US Equity Futures

• Asian currencies strengthened against the US dollar as Democratic gains in the US midterm elections increased the likelihood of the party controlling both chambers of Congress.
• Maybank analysts said tighter scrutiny of the AI sector under a Democratic-controlled Congress could weigh on the AI-led market rally and put further pressure on the dollar.
• They added that falling US Treasury yields reduce the dollar's appeal as a funding and investment currency for carry trades, creating additional downside pressure.
• USD/JPY fell 0.7% to 157.61, while USD/KRW declined 0.5% to 1,338.20.
• US Treasury yields moved lower during the Asian session. With equities also declining, the move may indicate increased demand for safe-haven assets.
• US equity futures pared some losses but remained lower. Nasdaq 100 futures fell 1.58%, S&P 500 futures declined 0.93%, and Dow Jones futures dropped 0.57%.
• Separately, a Fox News commentator joked that Trump may struggle to deliver his previously stated pledge of $5,000 payments to each US adult. Trump had linked the proposed payments to Republicans retaining control of both chambers of Congress.

Democrats Projected to Flip Texas, North Carolina and South Carolina Senate Seats as Trump Acknowledges Possible Losses

• President Donald Trump told The New York Times that Democrats are likely to win control of both the House and Senate in the 2026 midterm elections. He said he would accept the results and was willing to cooperate with Democrats.
• Trump said he did not regret endorsing Republican candidates, including Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, who is trailing in the Senate race.
• Decision Desk HQ projects Democrat James Talarico to defeat Paxton in Texas, marking the first Democratic Senate victory in the state since 1988.
• US media have also projected Democratic victories in North Carolina and South Carolina Senate races. These gains would significantly improve Democrats' chances of regaining Senate control. They need a net gain of four seats to secure a majority.
• In his first public response to the midterm results, Trump told supporters to "pretend I'm on the ballot". He added that although he was not running, "If I were, we'd win by a landslide."

SBI Research Proposes Scrapping LTCG Tax on Equities, Raising STT by 50% to Offset Revenue Loss

• SBI Research, the research arm of State Bank of India, has proposed abolishing Long Term Capital Gains (LTCG) tax on equities and increasing Securities Transaction Tax (STT) by 50% to compensate for the revenue loss.
• The report estimates that scrapping LTCG tax would reduce government revenue by around ₹40,000 crore to ₹50,000 crore in FY28, equivalent to just 0.1% to 0.2% of GDP.
• SBI Research expects LTCG collections of approximately ₹1 lakh crore in FY26 and ₹40,000 crore to ₹50,000 crore in FY27, compared with around ₹1.29 lakh crore collected in FY25.
• To offset the potential revenue loss, the report estimates that a 50% increase in STT could generate an additional ₹45,000 crore in FY28. Under the proposal, STT on equity delivery transactions would increase to 0.15% from the current 0.10%.
• The report also suggests alternative options, including increasing the LTCG exemption limit to ₹2 lakh from ₹1.25 lakh, applying a 5% tax on holdings between two and three years, and removing LTCG tax on holdings beyond three years.
• Fiscal deficit warning: SBI Research projects India's FY27 fiscal deficit at 4.7% of GDP, against the Budget Estimate of 4.3%. It estimates the deficit at ₹18.2 lakh crore, around ₹1.2 lakh crore above the budget target.
• The projected slippage includes ₹1.1 lakh crore in revenue losses from excise duty cuts, ₹90,000 crore in additional fertiliser subsidies and around ₹48,000 crore in petroleum and LPG support.
• SBI Research said expenditure cuts may be necessary to keep the fiscal deficit within the budget target. It added that the government's large cash balance could help avoid additional borrowing.
• Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman recently said the government would consider reviewing LTCG tax, while SEBI has also backed scrapping the tax for foreign investors.

GIFT Nifty Moves to 23.5 Hour Trading, Extending Market Access Across Global Time Zones

• NSE International Exchange (NSE IX) in GIFT City began 23.5 hour trading on Monday and completed its first trading session under the extended timings, Moneycontrol reported.
• Trading now runs from 3:15 AM to 2:45 AM IST, covering Asian, European and US market hours.
• GIFT Nifty, the dollar denominated Nifty 50 futures contract, now begins regular trading at 5:15 AM, 1 hour and 15 minutes earlier than before.
• NSE IX MD and CEO V. Balasubramaniam described the move as a major milestone for the exchange.
• The extended trading window aims to improve global access to Indian equity derivatives and provide overseas investors with greater flexibility.

Democrats Projected to Win Control of US House as Republicans Face Midterm Setback

• Decision Desk HQ projected on Tuesday night that Democrats will regain control of the US House of Representatives, ending the Republican majority. The projection was called at 9:09 p.m. ET on November 3, while several races were still being counted and polling stations remained open in western states.
• Democrats recorded several House victories earlier in the evening, including North Carolina's 11th District and Pennsylvania's 8th District, both previously held by Republicans.
• In the Senate, Democrats held seats in Virginia and Georgia. Decision Desk HQ projected that Jon Ossoff won re-election in Georgia.
• In Florida, Democrat Jared Moskowitz secured re-election in a redrawn district that President Donald Trump had won by 9 percentage points. Democrat Pia Dandiya was also projected to win Florida's 22nd District.
• A White House official told Bloomberg that Trump's resolve to oppose the "Radical Left" would only grow stronger regardless of the election outcome.
• Another White House official argued that voters who backed Democrats could regret their decision if gasoline prices fall quickly following a resolution to the Iran conflict. Officials also said Trump had done more to promote several Republican candidates than the candidates themselves.
• The White House further pointed out that Trump was not on the ballot, arguing that his supporters are more likely to turn out when he personally contests an election.

Trump May Announce Fresh Tariffs After Midterms as Oil Prices Fall on Hopes of Iran War De-escalation

• Trump may increase tariffs: Goldman Sachs economists expect President Donald Trump to announce fresh tariff increases after the US midterm elections, potentially more than offsetting any tariff rollbacks by Democrats.
• Democrats face limits on tariff policy: Even if Democrats gain control of both chambers, they would remain short of the two-thirds majority required to override a presidential veto. Democrats could hold hearings and increase scrutiny of Trump's trade policy but may struggle to reverse tariffs.
• White House prepares countermeasures: The administration is reportedly preparing executive actions in case Democrats win, including possible new tariffs on critical minerals and wind turbines, Reuters reported.
• Trump's comments on Israel aid: Trump told Fox News that the US would stop providing $4 billion in annual military aid to Israel after this year, sending oil prices lower as markets assessed the implications for the Middle East conflict.
• Oil prices retreat: Brent crude fell to its lowest level in more than three weeks. Prices had previously risen following reports of US strikes on Iran's Qeshm Island, which officials described as defensive actions to protect shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.
• US-Iran diplomatic efforts: Qatar said mediation between Washington and Tehran had made progress. However, ING warned that it was too early to rule out renewed escalation in the region.

US Midterm Results Favour Democrats, Triggering Fall in Treasury Yields, Dollar and Global Stock Futures

• Democrats projected to regain House control: Election forecasting firm Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ) projected that Democrats would win control of the US House of Representatives, ending Republican control.
• Treasury yields decline: Following preliminary results favouring Democrats, the US 10 year Treasury yield fell from an earlier 4.97% to around 4.89%, its lowest level since early September.
• Dollar weakens, safe havens gain: The dollar fell to its lowest level since late September. The Swiss franc gained 0.8%, the euro rose 0.6% against the dollar and the Japanese yen advanced 0.5%, reflecting increased demand for currencies viewed as safe havens.
• US stock futures fall: US equity index futures came under selling pressure as investors assessed the potential implications of a Democratic victory for Washington's policy direction.
• South Korean stocks reverse gains: South Korean equities turned lower amid election uncertainty. SK Hynix's decline widened to 4.5%, while Samsung Electronics fell 3%.
• Rhode Island gubernatorial race: DDHQ projected Democratic candidate Helena Fox to win the Rhode Island governor's race. With around 50% of votes counted, she was leading independent candidate Ken Block by 56% to 28%.

Qatar Pushes US-Iran Mediation as IRGC Puts Military Forces on High Alert

• Qatar continues mediation efforts: Qatar's Foreign Ministry spokesperson Majed Al Ansari said Doha will continue working to bridge differences between the US and Iran. Both sides remain willing to continue negotiations and review mediation proposals, although no concrete breakthrough has been achieved.
• Three-hour talks in Tehran: A Qatari delegation travelled to Tehran on Monday and held discussions with Iranian officials for approximately three hours. Communication between the parties is continuing, with Qatar coordinating efforts alongside Pakistan, the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) and other regional partners.
• Strait of Hormuz warning: Qatar said freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz and the Arabian Gulf is non-negotiable. It condemned the attack on the Qatari gas carrier Al Mayeda, warning that attacks on vessels and further military escalation could threaten regional security and undermine negotiations.
• Regional diplomatic outreach: Qatar's Emir discussed the regional crisis and Russia's potential role in resolving it with President Vladimir Putin during his visit to Moscow. Doha is also maintaining communication with senior Iranian officials.
• IRGC raises military readiness: Separately, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said on November 3 that it is maintaining a high state of combat readiness and implementing the Supreme Leader's orders under a policy of "maximum deterrence".
• Military preparations: The IRGC said its priorities include updating databases of potential enemy targets, bringing enemy assets within its operational reach and preparing to respond swiftly to threats of any level. It accused the US of seeking to overthrow Iran's government and divide its territory.
• Warning to adversaries: The IRGC said Iran's armed forces and people would determine when and under what conditions the conflict with its adversaries ends.

Iran Denies Reaching Agreement With US, Says Nuclear and Diplomatic Talks Show No New Progress

• Iran has denied reaching any agreement with the United States, with a spokesperson for the Iranian delegation saying negotiations have made no fresh progress, according to Iranian state broadcaster IRIB.
• Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei said both sides continue to exchange information through mediators, as they have previously, but no new breakthrough has been achieved.
• Baghaei said Iran remains at the highest level of defensive preparedness and is ready to respond forcefully to any act of aggression.
• He also expressed doubts about Washington's sincerity in pursuing diplomacy, citing Iran's past experiences with the United States.