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Meta Launches $20 Billion Bond Sale as AI Spending Plans Raise Debt and Credit Concerns

• Meta began marketing a five tranche dollar bond offering on Tuesday as part of plans to raise at least $20 billion across US and European markets, according to Bloomberg. It is the company's first dollar bond sale in six months.
• The fundraising follows equity offerings totalling approximately $97.5 billion. On October 27, Meta increased its common stock offering to $25 billion and added $12.5 billion in mandatory convertible preferred shares. It also plans an at the market share sale programme of up to $60 billion, expected to begin after its non-voting Class C shares start trading in early 2027.
• Meta has guided for capital expenditure of $135 billion to $145 billion in 2026 as it accelerates investment in AI infrastructure.
• The company raised $30 billion through bonds last year and issued $25 billion of investment grade bonds in April. Demand for the April offering reached $96 billion at one point. Alphabet also sold €6 billion in bonds on Monday.
• On October 30, S&P Global Ratings affirmed Meta's AA- credit rating but changed its outlook from stable to negative, warning that rising spending could push leverage above 1.0x and keep free operating cash flow negative for longer.
• S&P warned that returns from AI investments could be delayed or fail to materialise. It expects Meta's capital expenditure to reach $140 billion in 2026 and exceed $225 billion in 2027, with free operating cash flow deficits of $22 billion and $71 billion, respectively.

Indian Seafarer Killed After Indian-Flagged Vessel Attacked Near Oman, 13 Crew Rescued

• Gujarat seafarer Gandhar Nahim Ajij died after the Indian-flagged dhow MSV Al Jusufi was struck near Limah, off Oman's coast.
• Oman's Coast Guard rescued the remaining 13 Indian crew members, Union Shipping Minister Sarbananda Sonowal said.
• The attacker and the weapon used in the incident remain unidentified, according to NDTV.
• The Ministry of External Affairs condemned the attack and called for immediate de-escalation and a diplomatic solution, ANI reported.
• The incident comes amid growing maritime security risks linked to US-Iran hostilities. The UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) had also reported a projectile strike near Limah on November 1.

$147 Million Leveraged Oil Bet Raises Stakes as Iran War Escalation Fears Support Crude Prices

• An anonymous trader opened approximately $147 million in 10x leveraged long positions in Brent and WTI crude on Hyperliquid on November 2, according to TheStreet.
• The positions were reportedly opened ahead of Tuesday's US midterm elections, indicating a significant bet on higher oil prices amid expectations of a possible escalation in the Iran war.
• Oil prices rose on Tuesday following reports of US strikes on Iran's Qeshm Island, reversing Monday's sharp decline driven by hopes of diplomatic progress.
• Goldman Sachs warned that Brent crude could reach $140 per barrel in 2027 if oil production across the Gulf remains depressed, according to The Economic Times.

FPI Ownership in Indian Equities Falls to Lowest Level Since 2011 as Domestic Investors Take Control

• Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) held just 14.02% of 5,638 BSE listed companies at the end of September, the lowest level since December 2011, according to a Mint analysis.
• Foreign ownership declined by nearly 0.4 percentage points during the September quarter and by 154 basis points over the past year, despite FPIs turning net buyers with investments of ₹13,970 crore during the quarter. They had withdrawn ₹1.43 lakh crore in the June quarter.
• Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) invested a net ₹1.7 lakh crore in equities during the September quarter, taking their ownership in Nifty 500 companies to a record 21.3%, compared with 16.8% for FPIs, according to Motilal Oswal.
• Domestic mutual funds' ownership also reached a record 11.59%, narrowing the gap with foreign investors to 2.43 percentage points from 4.77 percentage points a year earlier.
• Foreign stakes are at multi year lows in nearly 70% of India's top 100 companies. Reliance Industries is at a 15 year low, while TCS, HCL Technologies and Maruti Suzuki have seen foreign ownership fall to levels not recorded in more than two decades.
• FPI ownership in Infosys dropped to 25.1%, its lowest since March 2001. At Axis Bank, foreign holdings declined to 38.1% from 49.4% since September 2024.

US Midterm Elections Underway as Security Fears Rise and Investors Watch Treasury Yields and Dollar

• Election security concerns: Voting is underway in the US midterm elections on November 3, with concerns growing over possible unrest if Republicans suffer major losses. Pollsters and election monitors fear President Donald Trump could allege fraud and encourage supporters to take to the streets, raising concerns about a repeat of the January 6 Capitol riot.
• Security measures tightened: Some polling stations in battleground areas have installed bulletproof glass and other security measures. Local election officials are preparing for potential threats, while some have reportedly begun carrying handguns. Election watchdogs also report resignations among election staff due to safety concerns.
• Key political stakes: All 435 House seats, 35 Senate seats and 36 governorships are being contested. The results will determine whether Republicans retain control of Congress or Democrats regain control of one or both chambers. More than 57 million people had already voted early, according to Reuters.
• Markets in focus: State Street Investment Management advised Asian investors to focus on movements in US Treasury yields, the dollar and corporate credit spreads rather than treating election results as direct buy or sell signals. The key questions are whether US policy changes affect export demand, technology investment and global borrowing costs.
• Interest rate outlook: A clearer policy outlook after the election could improve market sentiment, but does not automatically mean interest rates will fall. Investors should also consider persistent inflation and fiscal risks, with the Federal Reserve continuing to describe inflation as elevated.

AdaniConneX in Talks for $1.5 Billion Offshore Loan From DBS, MUFG and FAB

• AdaniConneX is in discussions with DBS, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group (MUFG) and First Abu Dhabi Bank for an offshore loan of around $1.5 billion, Bloomberg reported.
• The proposed facility follows an $800 million, 18 month loan secured in August, reportedly a day after a US judge dismissed charges against Gautam Adani.
• Pricing and the loan tenor, expected to be between five and seven years, are still under negotiation.
• The fundraising comes as the Adani Group and Reliance Industries step up investments in data centres and AI computing infrastructure.

US Midterm Uncertainty, AI Investment Concerns and Rising Oil Prices Weigh on Markets as Bond Yields Climb

• Eurozone bond yields rise: Eurozone government bond yields climbed, tracking higher US Treasury yields and a modest recovery in oil prices. Germany’s 10 year yield rose 2.1 basis points to 3.316%, while Belgium’s 10 year yield gained 3.2 basis points to 4.428% after budget negotiations collapsed. Markets are watching the US midterm elections, with the possibility of Democrats winning both chambers gaining attention. Analysts said Democratic control could support US Treasuries, although the market reaction to President Trump remains uncertain.
• Dollar weakens on AI concerns: The US dollar softened as investors questioned the sustainability of AI investments and assessed midterm election uncertainty. Apple warned that AI related operating costs could squeeze margins, while Anthropic reported an operating loss in Q3 following a costly data centre deal. OpenAI's latest funding round also reportedly raised less than half of its initial $30 billion target. The dollar index fell 0.12% to 101.684, after touching a one month low of 101.426.
• Oil and geopolitical risks remain in focus: Higher oil prices following the reported US strike on Iran's Qeshm Island provided some support to the dollar. Investors are assessing how the midterm outcome could influence US policy in the Middle East, the duration of supply disruptions and the geopolitical risk premium in crude. A Democratic gain in Congress could increase scrutiny of military policy and pressure for diplomatic solutions. However, greater pressure for negotiations does not automatically mean geopolitical risks or oil prices will decline.

White House Lists India Among Countries With Improved Trade Deals Despite Unsigned US Trade Pact

• The White House has included India in a 127 item document titled “Promises Made, Promises Kept, Results Delivered”, released on November 2, claiming President Donald Trump secured new and improved trade agreements with several countries.
• India is listed alongside the UK, European Union, Japan, China, South Korea and Southeast Asian nations. The document credits Trump's tariff policy with securing agreements covering more than half of global GDP.
• However, the interim trade pact announced by India and the US in February remains unsigned. The joint statement outlined a framework rather than a final agreement.
• A US Supreme Court ruling against reciprocal tariffs subsequently forced both sides to revisit the terms.
• Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal said most negotiations have concluded and the first tranche is undergoing final legal drafting. Commerce Secretary Rajesh Agrawal, however, said no signing date has been set.

Iran Says It Is at Highest Level of Military Defensive Readiness, Warns US Against Further Escalation

• Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said Iran is fully prepared for war, with its “finger on the trigger”, and will respond to US actions with authority and rationality.
• He said Iran is at the highest level of defensive readiness across both battlefield and military operations, adding that the responsibility to prevent war now rests with Washington.
• Ghalibaf warned that any further US strategic mistake would trigger a completely new battlefield, leaving the US with even fewer options to find a way out.
• He said Iran's Supreme Leader has approved military strategies to counter possible attacks and that Tehran would respond unpredictably to any miscalculation by the US or Israel.

Iran Says It Remains Far From US Deal as Oil Prices Rise Over 2%

• A senior Iranian official said Tehran and Washington remain far from reaching an agreement to end the war. Iran is prepared to respond forcefully to any US strikes in the region and beyond.
• The official said mediators are working to narrow differences, adding that Tehran will not accept excessive US demands.
• Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said Tehran had delivered Washington a “strong and rational response” and that “the ball is now in the US’s court.”
• Qatari mediators held further talks with Iranian officials in Tehran on Monday. A diplomat said both sides are reviewing the mediators’ latest proposal.
• Oil prices rose more than 2% intraday, with WTI and Brent gaining. US stock futures turned lower, with S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures down 0.3%. Spot silver fell below $50 an ounce, declining more than 3%.

• The International Energy Agency (IEA) warned that the Iran war is disrupting global gas supplies and intensifying competition among buyers, creating severe tightness in the LNG market.
• The IEA now expects global LNG supply to decline by a record 3% this year, equivalent to around 20 billion cubic metres (bcm).
• Disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and Iranian strikes on regional energy infrastructure have sharply reduced exports from Qatar and the UAE. Around 20% of global LNG shipments previously passed through the strait.
• The IEA expects shipping flows through Hormuz to remain severely disrupted at least until the end of the year.
• Higher production from North America and Africa, along with increased output from existing facilities in Africa, Asia and Russia, lifted non Gulf LNG production by 14% between March and October. This offset roughly two thirds of the Gulf supply losses.
• Despite this additional production, global LNG output is estimated to have fallen around 6% during the conflict.
• Europe's gas storage entering the 2026 to 2027 heating season is at its lowest level since 2013, increasing its dependence on global LNG supplies. The need to replenish depleted reserves this summer could intensify competition for LNG and extend supply tightness into next year.
• Meanwhile, global natural gas demand is forecast to decline by around 1.5%, or 65 bcm, this year, driven by weaker demand in the Middle East, lower industrial consumption in Europe and a shift from gas to coal for power generation in several Asian countries.

• Informal gold imports into India surged more than 15 times year on year to around 50 tonnes in Q3 2026, compared with just 3 tonnes a year earlier, according to the World Gold Council (WGC), citing Metals Focus data.
• The surge followed India's decision to more than double gold import duty to 15%, increasing incentives to bring gold into the country through unofficial channels such as smuggling and individuals carrying small quantities.
• The WGC said the report does not detail how informal trade flows were tracked. The higher import duty was introduced to curb gold demand and narrow the trade deficit, which had widened amid rising energy prices.
• Meanwhile, the WGC expects India's gold demand in 2026 to fall to around 650 tonnes, its lowest level since 2020, as elevated prices weigh on jewellery purchases and investment.
• India's Q3 gold demand declined 29% year on year to 162.5 tonnes. Jewellery demand fell 20%, while investment demand dropped 40%. Diwali and wedding season purchases could support a recovery in Q4.
• Globally, central banks purchased 321 tonnes of gold in Q3, the fastest quarterly pace since the end of 2024. Year to date purchases reached 675 tonnes, slightly above the same period last year.
• China and Poland were the largest reported buyers in Q3, adding 63 tonnes and 41 tonnes respectively, while Russia was the only major seller, reducing its holdings by 19 tonnes.
• The WGC said central bank demand remains an important support for gold prices. Some additional buying may also have been encouraged by recent price weakness.

• Sunil Tirumalai, EM Strategist at UBS Global Research, expects MSCI India companies to deliver 10% to 12% earnings CAGR in dollar terms over 2027 and 2028.
• Nifty 50 earnings growth is expected to be broadly similar, potentially a couple of percentage points higher due to differences in index composition.
• Tirumalai said Indian equities have undergone a significant relative valuation correction. India's valuation premium over emerging markets has fallen from around 110% in September 2024 to 65% currently.
• However, Indian equities continue to trade at a premium to emerging market peers. The current premium is nearly double the 30% to 40% level seen before the COVID 19 pandemic.
• He attributed part of the narrowing premium to improving earnings prospects in other emerging markets, particularly South Korea and Taiwan, where earnings upgrades have gained momentum.
• Banking is among UBS's preferred sectors, with valuations significantly below historical levels. Tirumalai sees potential value in banking stocks as corporate and management related uncertainties settle and investors refocus on fundamentals.
• He also sees opportunities in companies supplying the power and data centre ecosystems, supported by power shortages and rising infrastructure demand.
• On a possible reduction in long term capital gains tax, he said it could improve foreign investor sentiment in the near term, but would not be enough on its own to drive sustained FPI inflows.
• Foreign investors will continue to assess earnings growth, underlying fundamentals and India's relative market performance against other emerging economies.

• Oil prices rose in early Asian trading on Tuesday after The Wall Street Journal reported a US strike on Iran's Qeshm Island.
• The rebound recovered part of Monday's sharp sell-off, when hopes of diplomatic progress between Washington and Tehran raised expectations of an end to the eight-month Iran war.
• Iran's talks with Qatari mediators and signals from Tehran regarding its authority to negotiate had helped ease concerns over prolonged supply disruptions.
• Goldman Sachs raised its December Brent crude forecast to $105 per barrel from $90, citing increased geopolitical risks to global oil supplies.

US Carries Out Limited Strike on Iran's Qeshm Island, Calls Operation Defensive Amid Ongoing Diplomatic Efforts bigbreakingwire.in

• Oracle is reportedly set to price its $10 billion share offering at $116 per share, an 11% discount to Friday's closing price, according to Bloomberg.
• The equity offering, alongside a $10 billion bond sale, forms part of a $20 billion fundraising programme filed on Monday to finance the company's AI infrastructure expansion.
• The combined fundraising uses up the $20 billion funding cap Oracle announced at its investor day.
• Oracle shares recorded their worst single day since June following the fundraising announcement.
• Fitch and Moody's maintained their credit ratings on Oracle, although Moody's retained a negative outlook on the company's debt.

• UBS CEO Sergio Ermotti warned that cyber risk is growing rapidly as attacks on the banking sector become more frequent and sophisticated.
• Speaking at the Global Financial Leaders Investment Summit hosted by the Hong Kong Monetary Authority, he said cybersecurity is now as important as, or potentially more important than, traditional credit and market risk management.
• Ermotti described cyber risk as growing “exponentially” and called it a cost of increasing innovation and digitalisation.
• He stressed that strong governance, clear accountability and the ability to respond rapidly are essential for banks to manage these threats.
• “Cybersecurity has now become almost a core issue in bank risk management. I believe this is true for all banks,” he said.

• Middle East oil supply has recently exceeded demand for the first time since July, signalling improved availability of crude in the region.
• The Dubai crude benchmark has shifted into a bearish futures structure, with the November contract trading at a discount of around $2 per barrel to December.
• Crude exports from Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Iraq and Kuwait rose 10% last month to slightly above 15 million barrels per day, broadly returning to pre-war levels.
• Iranian crude exports, however, remain largely stagnant.
• The last similar supply surplus occurred in July, when a temporary US-Iran ceasefire allowed tankers to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, triggering a sharp decline in global oil prices.
• June Goh, senior oil market analyst at Sparta Commodities, said the current increase in supply is more gradual and has not reached the scale of the temporary oversupply seen at the end of June, when large volumes were loaded onto very large crude carriers.

• Saudi Aramco's adjusted net profit rose 9% year on year to $31.2 billion in the third quarter, compared with $28.6 billion a year earlier, beating the average analyst estimate of $28.7 billion.
• Higher oil prices amid the war supported earnings, while crude exports through the strategically important Strait of Hormuz remained strong.
• The profit increase provides a boost to Saudi Arabia as Houthi attacks in Yemen add pressure to the regional economy and raise concerns over the stability of oil revenues.
• In September, Aramco increased crude shipments from Ras Tanura, its main Persian Gulf export hub, as it sought to regain market share among Asian buyers.
• The company had previously relied on routes through the Strait of Hormuz after attacks disrupted the East West pipeline, which provides an alternative route through the Red Sea.
• Aramco said the East West pipeline continues to provide export flexibility, while it is exploring ways to increase overseas inventories and develop additional export routes.

• Saudi Aramco reported third quarter sales of SAR 464.33 billion and net profit of SAR 137.39 billion.
• The average realised crude oil price stood at $95.20 per barrel during the quarter.
• Sales of crude oil, refined products and chemicals declined compared with the previous period.
• Aramco said geopolitical developments and attacks on critical energy infrastructure prolonged disruptions in global energy markets and increased price volatility.
• The company confirmed that some of its facilities and those of its Saudi affiliates were attacked during and after the third quarter. However, as of September 30, it did not expect the impact to be material to its financial condition.
• The East West pipeline continues to provide export flexibility. Aramco is also exploring ways to increase overseas inventories and establish additional export routes.
• The Zuluf oil production expansion project has started production, while other major upstream projects are progressing as planned.
• Construction of the Fadhili gas plant expansion is also continuing.

• Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said the government will consider adjustments to stock related tax policies as the prolonged market decline increases pressure to restore investor confidence.
• She acknowledged the “sensitive sentiment” and “anxiety” among retail investors, saying she fully understands the concerns being raised.
• Sitharaman noted that India maintained similar tax rates during 2023 and 2024, when the country was attracting significant capital inflows.
• “I fully understand the concerns raised, and I will consider all these opinions,” she said on Monday evening.
• However, she did not clarify whether the government is considering changes to long term or short term capital gains tax, or securities transaction tax (STT).

Sitharaman acknowledges calls for equity tax relief as SEBI proposes scrapping LTCG tax for foreign investors bigbreakingwire.in

• Emmanuel Roman, CEO of Pacific Investment Management Company (PIMCO), warned that AI related financing could reach approximately $10 trillion over the next five years, potentially exceeding reasonable levels.
• Roman estimates the AI industry could require around $2 trillion in additional annual funding to support capital expenditure. For comparison, the US bond market is worth approximately $12 trillion.
• He cautioned that an economic downturn could eventually trigger a market collapse, identifying rising US interest rates, conflicts in the Middle East and a potential Eurozone crisis as possible catalysts.
• Asked whether excessive caution or excessive risk taking poses the greater portfolio risk, Roman said taking on too much risk is more dangerous.
• Blackstone President Gray offered a more optimistic perspective, saying current market scepticism could be healthy. However, he acknowledged that AI's development trajectory will drive further investment and significantly increase capital requirements.
• JPMorgan on AI: JPMorgan Chase Co-President Pinto warns that AI industry growth may be too rapid, raising the risk of a sector correction. AI sector valuations remain elevated. AI companies must justify their substantial investments and current valuations.

• BNP Paribas analyst William Bratton warned that Asian AI related stocks could face pressure if Democrats perform strongly in the US midterm elections.
• A sweeping Democratic victory could shift Washington's policy focus towards AI safety, testing and industry standards, potentially weighing on investor sentiment towards the sector.
• A strong Democratic showing could also prompt markets to price in the possibility of a Democratic “blue wave” in Congress in 2028, raising expectations of stricter AI regulation.
• Bratton said this could be problematic for Northeast Asian equity markets, given their significant exposure to the US led AI investment cycle.
• However, he noted that as investors increasingly focus on AI commercialisation, corporate earnings are likely to play a more important role in determining the performance of Asian technology stocks over the short and medium term.

• Adani Group, controlled by Gautam Adani, is reportedly seeking approximately $1.5 billion in offshore loans to finance the expansion of its data centre business.
• AdaniConneX, its joint venture with data centre operator EdgeConneX, is in discussions with potential lenders, including DBS Group, First Abu Dhabi Bank and Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group.
• The group plans to invest around $100 billion in data centres and other digital infrastructure by 2035, leveraging its energy business to support its expansion.
• Meanwhile, Mukesh Ambani's Reliance Industries plans to invest up to $110 billion over the next seven years in AI related infrastructure development.

• Mike Wilson, Chief US Equity Strategist at Morgan Stanley, warned that the S&P 500 could temporarily fall around 9% from its previous peak to approximately 7,100.
• He identified uncertainty surrounding the US midterm elections, concerns over artificial intelligence spending and liquidity constraints as potential triggers for a correction.
• However, Wilson described such a pullback as a “massive opportunity” to enter the market, predicting that the S&P 500 could subsequently rally to 8,000.
• Despite the ongoing Iran war weighing on sentiment, he expects the broader bull market to resume once the short term correction is over.
• Wilson noted that historically, US equities have risen in the six to 12 months following midterm elections, pointing to a 100% historical probability of gains during that period.
• However, uncertainty is elevated this time because President Donald Trump has hinted at taking “something big” after the elections, potentially keeping investors cautious.

Jefferies: Middle East Aluminium Supply Recovery May Slow, Potentially Supporting Prices

• Price correction: Aluminium prices have fallen approximately 17% since the beginning of June, partly due to rising supply as Middle Eastern smelters gradually resume production.
• Slower production restart: Following a meeting with Alcoa executives on Monday, Jefferies said the company expects previously shut aluminium capacity in the Middle East to restart more slowly than initially anticipated.
• High input costs: Middle Eastern smelters are facing significant economic challenges, particularly elevated costs of importing alumina, a key raw material used in aluminium production.
• New capacity delays: Alcoa management expects most aluminium capacity projects planned in the Middle East before the war to face greater difficulties in reaching the market.

Nasdaq 100 Enters Third Correction of 2026, Falling Over 10% From October Peak Amid AI Spending and Debt Concerns

• Market correction: The Nasdaq 100 closed more than 10% below its October 6 peak on Monday, entering its third correction of 2026, according to Bloomberg.
• Weak technology earnings: Mixed results from Alphabet, Amazon and other major technology companies, alongside a weak outlook from Intel, have intensified concerns about the returns on massive AI investments.
• AI spending concerns: Investors are increasingly questioning whether rising capital expenditure by major technology companies can generate sufficient returns, adding pressure to technology stocks.
• Rising debt: Oracle announced a $20 billion bond offering, highlighting the growing reliance on debt financing to fund technology and AI infrastructure investments.
• Upcoming catalysts: Investors are now watching Apple's earnings and Tuesday's US midterm elections for further direction on technology stocks and broader market sentiment.

US Treasury Cuts Q4 Borrowing Forecast to $618 Billion; Q1 2027 Borrowing Seen at $800 Billion

• Fourth quarter forecast: The US Treasury lowered its fourth quarter borrowing estimate to $618 billion, down $10 billion from its August projection, citing a higher than expected opening cash balance, partly offset by weaker net cash flows.
• Underlying borrowing demand: Excluding the higher opening cash balance, borrowing requirements are actually $24 billion above the August estimate.
• Cash balance target: The latest forecast assumes the Treasury will end December with a cash balance of $850 billion.
• First quarter outlook: For the first quarter of 2027, the Treasury expects to borrow $800 billion, assuming an end of March cash balance of $1 trillion.
• Third quarter borrowing: The Treasury borrowed $742 billion in the third quarter, slightly above its August forecast of $739 billion. However, after adjusting for the higher than expected closing cash balance of $984 billion, actual borrowing was $30 billion below expectations.
• Upcoming refinancing announcement: The Treasury will release details of its refinancing plan on Wednesday. Investors will closely monitor whether it changes the size of Treasury bond auctions in the coming quarters.

US, Russia and Ukraine to Hold Trilateral Peace Talks in Abu Dhabi on November 10–11

• Trilateral negotiations: The United States, Russia and Ukraine are expected to hold trilateral talks in Abu Dhabi, UAE, from November 10 to 11, according to a senior US official.
• Key agenda: Discussions are expected to cover ending the Russia-Ukraine conflict, post-war security arrangements, de-escalation and assistance measures.
• European consultations: US officials will also meet representatives from France, Germany, the UK, the European Union and NATO in Brussels this week to discuss Ukraine related issues.