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Iran Warns of More Devastating Retaliation if War Resumes; Germany Urges Diplomatic Resolution

• Iran’s Supreme National Security Council Secretary Rezaei warned that any renewed conflict would trigger a stronger and more destructive Iranian response against the United States and Israel.
• He claimed Iran’s missile capabilities have improved, with greater speed and destructive power, as well as enhanced ability to penetrate enemy air-defence systems.
• Rezaei said Iran’s defensive and offensive capabilities are now more advanced and that its adversaries would face greater losses in any future confrontation.
• German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said on October 30 that Germany is coordinating through multiple channels to intensify diplomatic efforts to end the US-Israel-Iran conflict.
• Merz said the conflict has pushed up energy prices, costing Europe more than €100 billion over the past eight months.
• He urged all parties to pursue a diplomatic solution, saying the conflict should end quickly on economic grounds.

Trump Administration Reportedly Briefs Gulf Allies on Possible November 4 Strikes Against Iran bigbreakingwire.in

Sam Altman Meets Samsung Executives to Deepen AI Cooperation Amid Global Memory Chip Shortage

• OpenAI CEO Sam Altman met Samsung Group executives in Yongin, South Korea, on Saturday to discuss expanding cooperation in memory chips and AI infrastructure.
• Samsung hosted a meeting with around 50 executives from Samsung Electronics, finance, biotechnology and other business units, focusing on AI-driven industry transformation and business opportunities over the next decade.
• The discussions build on an existing agreement under which Samsung will supply memory chips for OpenAI’s Stargate infrastructure project and collaborate on AI data centres, including proposed floating data centres.
• Speaking on the Cheeky Pint podcast, Altman criticised the allocation of DRAM in personal computers, saying much of it remains unused while data centres could utilise memory more intensively.
• He also argued that memory manufacturers are reluctant to expand production despite the potential profits, describing the situation as a failure of market incentives.
• His remarks drew criticism from commentators who argue that OpenAI’s massive AI infrastructure demand is contributing to the global memory shortage. Some users also favour local AI systems for greater privacy and to avoid recurring subscription costs.

Kotak Raises FY27 Crude Oil Assumption to $100; BlackRock Sees Scope to Turn More Positive on India

• Kotak Institutional Equities raised its FY27 crude oil price assumption to $100 per barrel from $90, citing prolonged West Asia supply disruptions and renewed attacks on Saudi infrastructure and oil tankers.
• This is Kotak’s second upward revision in about four weeks, following its October 2 increase to $90. Dated Brent averaged $126 per barrel in October, according to BusinessLine.
• Kotak maintained Buy on ONGC, with its target implying around 57% upside, and Sell on Oil India, implying approximately 20% downside.
• BlackRock Investment Institute’s Ben Powell said the firm is poised to turn tactically constructive on Indian equities but wants clearer evidence on corporate earnings, oil prices and foreign investor flows.
• The Sensex and Nifty 50 have declined in 2026, while foreign investors have sold ₹4.55 lakh crore worth of Indian equities.
• Powell highlighted elevated crude prices as a key risk for India, a major energy importer. His latest comments mark a shift from July, when he said India's valuation premium had disappeared.

• India's central government fiscal deficit stood at ₹7.14 lakh crore during April–September, equivalent to 42.1% of the FY27 Budget Estimate, according to Controller General of Accounts (CGA) data.
• The deficit had reached 36.5% of the annual target during the corresponding period last year.
• Net tax revenue grew just 3.8%, partly due to lower excise collections following cuts in petrol and diesel duties.
• Urea subsidy expenditure crossed 73% of its full-year budget allocation, adding pressure to government finances.
• ICRA Chief Economist Aditi Nayar estimates that the government could face fiscal slippage of ₹1.3–1.4 lakh crore against its budget target.
• Government capital expenditure growth also slowed, with Q2 growth reportedly tapering to 2.8%.

• London-based hedge fund Arini Capital Management has reportedly sold approximately $800 million in debt assets in recent weeks, partly to meet margin calls from banks, according to The Wall Street Journal.
• Its flagship fund has declined around 26% this year, hit by distressed investments in Altice International, Brightspeed and Aston Martin.
• Bloomberg reported that major investment firms Pimco and Oaktree have submitted bids for some of Arini's holdings.
• The asset sales highlight growing liquidity pressures as lenders seek additional collateral against the fund's positions.
• Arini has maintained that paper losses on its investments do not necessarily indicate that the underlying investments have deteriorated.

• OpenAI has reportedly reduced its latest fundraising target from $30 billion to approximately $20 billion, while lowering its proposed valuation from $1.4 trillion to $1.25 trillion, according to the Financial Times.
• The ChatGPT developer had initially planned to raise $30 billion at a $1.4 trillion valuation, presenting the round as an opportunity for investors to participate before a potential IPO next year.
• OpenAI had justified its higher valuation by pointing to rapid revenue growth since July, with its valuation nearly doubling from the previous $852 billion.
• However, the sell-off in publicly traded AI stocks and growing concerns over the scale of AI infrastructure spending have reportedly weakened investor appetite.
• Sources familiar with the matter said some investors have reduced their proposed commitments, meaning the first closing of the funding round could raise less than $20 billion.
• OpenAI had set the previous Friday as the deadline for investor subscriptions and is now working to finalise the fundraising.

• Apple closed Friday with a market capitalisation of $5.03 trillion, surpassing Nvidia's $4.93 trillion to reclaim the title of the world's most valuable publicly traded company.
• This marks the first time Apple has overtaken Nvidia since the end of July.
• Apple's shares fell 1.2% on Friday, compared with a 4.2% decline in Nvidia.
• Concerns over returns on massive AI infrastructure investments have intensified following disappointing market reactions to earnings from Intel and Amazon, while Alphabet and Meta have also faced selling pressure.
• Apple's relatively restrained AI infrastructure spending and strong free cash flow have helped its shares demonstrate greater resilience during the technology-sector correction.
• Apple shares have gained approximately 27% year-to-date, while Nvidia has declined more than 10% over the past month.

• Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta and Oracle returned just 9.3% of operating cash flow to shareholders this year, down sharply from 27.4%, according to Reuters analysis.
• Combined capital expenditure by the five technology giants doubled to $556.9 billion, exceeding their record operating cash flow.
• The surge in AI infrastructure investments resulted in a combined $14 billion free cash flow deficit, with capital spending outpacing operating cash flow for the first time since 2011.
• Share buybacks plunged 83%, reflecting the growing priority given to data centres, AI chips and computing infrastructure over shareholder returns.
• Despite mounting cash-flow pressures and the technology sell-off, Amazon and Meta continue to plan heavier AI-related spending.

• Anthropic's IPO filing has disclosed nearly $900 billion in future financial commitments related to servers, data-centre construction, electricity and computing infrastructure.
• These obligations include future lease and purchase agreements covering data centres, GPUs and power supply, and are detailed in the notes to its financial statements rather than appearing as conventional balance-sheet debt.
• The commitments highlight the enormous capital requirements involved in expanding Anthropic's AI infrastructure and supporting its growing computing needs.
• David Trainer, CEO of investment research firm New Constructs, described the commitments as massive, warning that the company must invest heavily in AI training, inference and energy.
• The disclosures raise questions about long-term infrastructure costs, financing requirements and the financial risks associated with the AI expansion race.

• Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan met US Secretary of State Marco Rubio on the sidelines of the G20 foreign ministers' meeting in Atlanta to discuss developments in ongoing US-Iran negotiations.
• The two officials also discussed bilateral relations, the situation in Gaza, the Russia-Ukraine war and other regional issues.
• Meanwhile, Iranian state-linked Tasnim News Agency accused Axios journalist Barak Ravid of conducting a media-driven psychological campaign against Iran by reporting on ongoing negotiations and the possibility of renewed US military action.
• Tasnim claimed reports about disagreements over Iran's nuclear programme and the US naval blockade were intended to increase pressure on Tehran.
• Iranian officials reportedly disputed the account that nuclear concessions were central to the current round of indirect negotiations, claiming the nuclear issue was not on the agenda.
• The competing accounts highlight continuing uncertainty over the scope of negotiations and the conditions Washington and Tehran are setting for renewed dialogue.

• Qatari mediators held more than 12 hours of discussions in Tehran on Friday in an effort to restart direct US-Iran negotiations and prevent further escalation after the US midterm elections, Axios reported, citing diplomatic sources.
• Talks are expected to continue in Doha on Saturday, with Qatar maintaining regular communication with the White House. A diplomatic source described the progress as positive.
• Qatar is pushing Washington and Tehran to agree on a package of reciprocal measures that could be implemented within days, paving the way for renewed negotiations on Iran's nuclear programme and other issues.
• Two major disagreements continue to block progress:
  • US demand: Iran must make nuclear concessions before direct negotiations resume.
  • Iran's demand: Washington must first lift its maritime blockade, unfreeze Iranian funds and allow oil exports.
• Qatar is also urging Iran to grant UN nuclear inspectors access to its damaged nuclear facility as a confidence-building measure.
• Washington wants inspector access to be part of a broader arrangement in exchange for sanctions relief.

• The attacker behind the estimated $6.3 billion Binance security breach has reportedly converted stolen tokens and stablecoins into more than 420,000 ETH and 18,270 Bitcoin, according to TRM Labs.
• CoinDesk reported that attackers exploited an Ethereum wallet feature on October 29 to drain approximately $2.5 billion from a single wallet in less than four minutes.
• Tether and Circle have frozen more than $2.3 billion in stablecoins, while TRM Labs, Chainalysis and Elliptic have linked the attack to North Korea's TraderTraitor hacking group.
• TRM Labs estimates that approximately $2.4 billion in Ether and Bitcoin remains in the attacker's possession. These decentralised assets cannot be frozen directly by stablecoin issuers.
• Binance said it had identified additional points of breach beyond the initially suspected compromised DevOps engineer's laptop.
• The exchange expects withdrawals to resume in approximately 45 hours, subject to completion of security checks.
• Bitcoin fell to a six-week low amid the incident, while more than $1.6 billion in leveraged positions were liquidated. Binance has pledged to cover all user losses.

Binance $6.3 Billion Hack: North Korean Hackers Linked to Record Crypto Theft bigbreakingwire.in

• The UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) reported that a tanker was struck by a small boat carrying explosives in the Strait of Hormuz on October 29.
• The explosion damaged the vessel's engine room and triggered a fire, temporarily disabling the tanker. The blast occurred above the waterline, and no injuries were reported. The vessel later resumed sailing.
• UKMTO described the incident as the first small-boat attack of its kind during the current conflict. The explosive device was reportedly an adhesive or limpet-style sea mine, typically attached to a ship's hull near the waterline.
• The incident highlights concerns over the use of small boats and hull-attached explosives against commercial shipping in the strategically important waterway.
• Separately, a Liberia-flagged tanker off the Iraqi coast was found carrying a suspicious object that Iraqi security forces confirmed as an adhesive sea mine before removing it.
• A US official had earlier said that no ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz had struck floating sea mines. Iran has previously been accused of using limpet-mine tactics, including incidents involving vessels in 2021 and 2024.

• The Nasdaq Composite opened at its lowest level in more than two months on Friday as disappointing earnings from Amazon and Intel intensified concerns over the costs of the AI infrastructure boom.
• Amazon reported negative trailing 12-month free cash flow of $42.4 billion, raising concerns about the financial burden of its massive data-centre and AI investments.
• Intel issued weaker-than-expected fourth-quarter guidance, citing soft PC demand and a memory supply crunch.
• The sell-off followed a sharp decline in Alphabet shares a day earlier, adding to pressure across major technology stocks.
• Despite the market weakness, Raymond James strategist Matt Orton told CNBC that he did not see an immediate "moment of reckoning", noting that the Nasdaq remains higher for the year.

• Reliance Industries reported a 34% year-on-year increase in consolidated net profit to ₹29,550 crore for the September quarter, significantly beating the Bloomberg consensus estimate of ₹21,368 crore.
• Gross revenue surged 27.8% to ₹3.62 lakh crore, supported by higher crude oil and fuel prices.
• Oil-to-chemicals (O2C) EBITDA jumped 67.9%, driving record earnings in the segment amid stronger refining and petrochemical economics.
• Reliance Retail revenue increased 6.4%, with festive-season sales falling into the third quarter this year.
• Jio Platforms reported its first quarterly results as a listed company, with consolidated net profit rising 13.7% to ₹8,389 crore.
• Jio's revenue grew 11%, while average revenue per user (ARPU) increased 3.5% to ₹218.80 per month, supported by subscriber mix and higher usage.

• The US Department of Energy has awarded contracts for nearly 41 million barrels of crude oil, completing the final tranche of the Trump administration's emergency Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) release programme.
• Companies including Trafigura and ExxonMobil were among those awarded contracts.
• The programme covers approximately 172 million barrels, making it the second-largest SPR release in US history.
• The release was initiated to ease energy price pressures following the outbreak of the war involving Iran.
• The US action forms part of a broader International Energy Agency (IEA) initiative to release 400 million barrels into global markets.
• Since the conflict began, the US has released approximately 174.1 million barrels, exceeding its previously committed 172 million barrels under the IEA programme.

• The attacker reportedly distributed approximately 18,270 Bitcoin across 19 wallets and transferred 233 million XRP into a single account. Both holdings remain unspent, according to CoinDesk.
• Unlike stablecoins, Bitcoin and XRP cannot be frozen directly by a central issuer, making recovery more challenging.
• Tether and Circle have frozen approximately $2.4 billion in stablecoins, while Binance says around $3 billion in total assets have been frozen.
• Blockchain intelligence firm TRM Labs has attributed the attack to North Korea's TraderTraitor hacking unit.
• Binance traced the suspected breach to a compromised engineer's laptop and pledged to cover all customer losses using its SAFU fund and corporate resources.

Microsoft Warns North Korean Hackers Are Operationalising AI; Binance Theft Linked to TraderTraitor bigbreakingwire.in

• India's extreme poverty rate declined sharply from 27.1% in 2011 to 2.6% in 2023, according to the World Bank's October 2026 Poverty and Equity Brief.
• Poverty measured at the $4.20-a-day threshold also fell from 57.7% to 16.1% over the same period.
• The report estimates that approximately 496 million Indians escaped poverty between 2011 and 2023.
• The improvement was supported by rising household consumption, increased female workforce participation and government food subsidy programmes.
• Despite the progress, income inequality remains significant, with the top 10% earning approximately 13 times as much as the bottom 10%.
• The World Bank cautioned that household surveys may underestimate the actual extent of inequality.

• A Microsoft Threat Intelligence report published on October 29 identified growing use of generative AI by North Korean hacking groups Jade Sleet, Coral Sleet and Jasper Sleet in their routine cyber operations.
• Microsoft said these groups have reached its highest "operationalised" AI adoption stage, indicating that AI is being integrated into their regular attack workflows.
• Another North Korean-linked group, Onyx Sleet, reportedly used AI to create more than 100 customised PDF phishing lures targeting South Korean users during August and September.
• Separately, blockchain intelligence firms TRM Labs and Chainalysis have attributed the October 29 theft of approximately $6.3 billion from Binance to North Korea's TraderTraitor hacking unit.
• The Binance incident is being described as the largest cryptocurrency theft on record.

North Korean Hackers Linked to Record $6.36 Billion Binance Theft, TRM Labs Says bigbreakingwire.in

• The US Treasury raised a record $839 billion through 11 auctions of Treasury bills, floating-rate notes and 2-year, 5-year and 7-year securities this week, surpassing the previous record of $834 billion set during the same period last year.
• Most of the proceeds were used to repay maturing Treasury debt, while actual net new borrowing amounted to approximately $106 billion.
• Weekly net Treasury issuance previously peaked near $362 billion in March–April 2020 during the pandemic funding surge.
• Tony Fallon of Mischler Financial Group warned that record debt issuance could prompt investors to demand higher yields, increasing borrowing costs for the US government.
• Meanwhile, US equities opened sharply lower, with the Nasdaq falling 2.26% and the S&P 500 declining 1.16%. The Dow Jones edged up 0.08%.
• Intel plunged 25.75% following its earnings report, while AMD fell 10.22% and Qualcomm declined 5.71%.
• Intel's five-year CDS spread hit a record 123.5 bps. This marks the largest single-day move since October 2022.

• US President Donald Trump said Washington needs a guarantee that Iran will never develop nuclear weapons.
• Trump argued that if Iran possessed nuclear weapons, the US would have to treat its leadership differently, adding that he was unwilling to do so.
• He said Iran's leadership had been severely weakened and that Washington was uncertain whom it could negotiate with, describing this as a secondary issue.
• Trump also claimed he did not start the conflict, arguing that Iran had effectively been at war with the US since the 1979 Islamic Revolution.
• US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent highlighted the collapse of Iran's currency, saying its depreciation had reached a level where authorities could reportedly arrest people for printing its exchange-rate value.

• Blockchain intelligence firm TRM Labs has attributed the theft of approximately $6.36 billion from Binance to North Korean hackers, describing it as the largest cryptocurrency theft on record.
• TRM said it had "high confidence" that the attack was carried out by TraderTraitor, a North Korean hacking unit linked to the Lazarus Group.
• According to the firm, most of the funds were drained within approximately 20 minutes.
• The attack reportedly involved transactions across 10 blockchains, including Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana and Tron.
• The estimated theft is more than four times the $1.5 billion stolen in the 2025 Bybit hack.

Bitcoin Hits Six-Week Low as $6.3 Billion Binance Security Breach Triggers Crypto Market Concerns bigbreakingwire.in

• Bitcoin fell to a six-week low after Binance suspended withdrawals following a security breach on October 29, with the exchange estimating the total impact at approximately $6.3 billion.
• Binance said its investigation identified multiple potential breach points involving compromised DevOps laptops, suggesting the attack may have extended beyond a single employee's device.
• Around $3 billion in affected assets has reportedly been frozen on-chain. Tether and Circle have also frozen approximately $2.4 billion in stablecoins, according to Reuters.
• Blockchain intelligence firm TRM Labs linked the attack to North Korea's TraderTraitor group, although the attribution remains an assessment by blockchain investigators.
• Binance has pledged to cover all user losses using its SAFU fund and corporate funds. Deposits and withdrawals remain suspended while security checks and investigations continue.
• Institutional investors are reportedly withdrawing assets from centralised exchanges amid concerns about exchange security and potential liquidity pressures.
• Analysts have warned that locked funds could trigger forced liquidations at other exchanges, while Standard Chartered expects further downside pressure on cryptocurrency prices.

Binance Estimates $6.3 Billion Impact From Security Incident; Says $3 Billion in Assets Frozen bigbreakingwire.in

• The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has asked banks to demonstrate compliance with cybersecurity regulations and disclose their preparedness for emerging artificial intelligence-related threats, according to Reuters sources.
• The central bank also wants lenders to review API connections with non-banking financial companies (NBFCs) and fintech firms to identify potential security vulnerabilities.
• The move follows reported cyber incidents, including more than 700 unauthorised transfers from ICICI Bank accounts through a compromised API and a data leak involving State Bank of India.
• RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra said banks are alert to cybersecurity risks arising from AI agents and are taking steps to address potential vulnerabilities, according to The Economic Times.
• The review is expected to focus on banks' cybersecurity controls, third-party integrations, API security and ability to manage emerging AI-related threats.

AU Small Finance Bank Investigates Suspected Salesforce Data Leak; Banking Systems Unaffected bigbreakingwire.in

• Deutsche Bank says AI-driven market adjustments could disrupt the traditional relationship between US equities and the dollar, potentially making the greenback a less reliable safe-haven asset.
• Recent simultaneous declines in technology stocks and the US dollar suggest that risks in both markets may be greater than investors currently anticipate.
• Foreign investors hold more than $20 trillion in US equities, with approximately 90% of the increase in their holdings driven by share-price appreciation rather than fresh purchases.
• A decade-long negative correlation between US stocks and the dollar reduced incentives for overseas investors to hedge currency exposure.
• Deutsche Bank warns that if US equities face a domestic shock, the dollar could decline alongside stocks, amplifying losses for foreign investors holding unhedged US assets.
• A simultaneous decline in US real yields and equities could indicate that markets are reassessing expectations for AI-driven capital expenditure and economic growth.
• The bank describes this evolving market dynamic as the "AI dollar era", in which the dollar's traditional safe-haven behaviour may become less dependable.

• ING analyst Francesco Pesole said the US dollar faces a key near-term risk as investors may unwind bullish dollar positions ahead of Tuesday's US midterm elections.
• Prediction markets reportedly assign approximately 68% probability to a Democratic sweep, which could create additional pressure on the dollar.
• A Democratic sweep could increase concerns over a potential government shutdown, a debt-ceiling stalemate and further political uncertainty.
• Pesole also warned that such an outcome could weigh on already fragile market sentiment amid concerns surrounding AI-driven valuations and technology stocks.
• However, he said the dollar could attract fresh buying interest if technology stocks stop dominating market headlines.

• Exxon Mobil reported Q3 adjusted EPS of $4.23, beating expectations of $4.08. Adjusted net income reached $17.5 billion, against estimates of $16.6 billion.
• Exxon’s downstream adjusted earnings surged 120% quarter-on-quarter to $9 billion, driven by sharply higher refining margins amid disruptions to global refining capacity and tighter diesel supplies.
• Upstream earnings declined 20% QoQ to $7.3 billion due to lower Brent prices, while specialty products earnings rose 32% to $1.3 billion. Production averaged 4.5 million boe/day.
• Exxon announced a $20 billion share buyback programme for 2027, maintaining the same level as 2026.
• Chevron also beat expectations, reporting Q3 adjusted EPS of $5.28, exceeding analyst estimates by $0.35. Refining earnings hit a record $4.93 billion, nearly four times the year-ago level.
• Chevron reduced its share buyback pace to $2.5 billion, while remaining within its full-year guidance. It expects Venezuelan production to reach approximately 300,000 barrels per day by year-end, around 20% higher than a year earlier.
• European oil majors also benefited: Shell increased share buybacks, while BP recorded its strongest quarterly profit in 18 years, supported by strong refining margins.

• AU Small Finance Bank is investigating a potential data leak involving its Salesforce platform, which handles information related to customers of its vehicle finance business.
• The cybersecurity group ScarlettGroup has claimed it accessed the bank's data and threatened to leak it. The group's allegations have not been independently verified.
• The hackers reportedly claim to have obtained sensitive information, including KYC records, PAN and Aadhaar details, credit reports, bank statements, loan applications and signed agreements.
• The group has also alleged access to insurance records, CRM data, employee information and internal audit logs. The bank has not confirmed these specific data categories were leaked.
• The bank said the suspected incident involves limited vehicle finance customer data on Salesforce's externally managed and hosted software-as-a-service platform.
• AU Small Finance Bank stated that its internal banking systems have not been affected and all banking services are operating normally.
• Reuters reported that the bank has not disclosed the full scope of the potential exposure or the specific information involved. The investigation is ongoing.