UBS Global Wealth Management has recently raised the probability of a U.S. recession to 25%, up from its previous estimate of 20%. This adjustment reflects growing concerns about economic conditions in the United States, driven by several factors that could potentially tip the economy into a downturn.
Key reasons behind this increase include:
1. Tightening Financial Conditions: UBS analysts cite the ongoing tightening of financial conditions, primarily due to the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hikes aimed at combating inflation. Higher borrowing costs are leading to reduced consumer spending and business investment, which could slow down economic growth.
2. Slowing Consumer Spending: There is a noticeable deceleration in consumer spending, which is a significant component of the U.S. economy. Rising interest rates, coupled with inflationary pressures, are reducing disposable income and impacting consumer confidence.
3. Labor Market Dynamics: Although the U.S. labor market remains relatively strong, there are signs of weakening, with slower job growth and increasing layoffs in certain sectors. A softening labor market could further dampen consumer spending and overall economic activity.
4. Global Economic Uncertainty: The global economic environment is also contributing to the elevated recession risk. Factors such as geopolitical tensions, supply chain disruptions, and economic slowdowns in other major economies are creating additional headwinds for the U.S. economy.
UBS Global Wealth Management’s decision to raise the probability of a U.S. recession to 25% reflects growing concerns about the impact of tightening financial conditions, slowing consumer spending, and potential labor market weakening. While the risk of a recession has increased, UBS still sees a greater likelihood of continued economic expansion, albeit at a slower pace.
Expectations for a rate cut of up to 50 basis points at the upcoming September meeting of the U.S. Federal Reserve have increased. This shift in sentiment follows a speech delivered by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell at the Jackson Hole Symposium last Friday, where he indicated that the moment has arrived to consider reducing interest rates. Powell’s comments have been interpreted as a clear signal that the Federal Reserve might soon pivot towards a more accommodative monetary policy stance.
Earlier this month, J.P. Morgan raised the probability of the United States entering a recession by the end of the year to 35%. This upward revision was primarily due to signs of easing pressures in the labor market. In contrast, Goldman Sachs took a more optimistic view, lowering its estimate of the likelihood of a recession in the next 12 months to 20%. The divergence in these forecasts reflects differing assessments of the economic outlook among major financial institutions.
Last week, the U.S. Department of Labor made a significant downward revision to its previous estimate of total payroll employment. The Department lowered the estimate by 818,000 jobs for the period from April 2023 to March 2024. This adjustment reveals that U.S. employers added far fewer jobs over the year through March than was initially reported. The revised data suggests that the labor market may not have been as robust as earlier figures had indicated, raising concerns about the strength of the economic recovery.
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