President Donald Trump marked one month since the start of Operation Epic Fury against Iran, declaring major battlefield success while also warning of possible escalation in the coming weeks. His comments come at a critical time for global markets, as investors weigh the risk of further conflict against signs that the war may be nearing its final phase.
Trump said the United States military has delivered swift and overwhelming victories over the past four weeks, claiming that Iran’s naval and air capabilities have been severely damaged. He stated, “Tonight, Iran’s navy is gone. Their air force is in ruins,” and added that command structures within the Islamic Guard Corps are being decimated. He also said, “We are going to finish job and we are going to finish it very fast” and “We are getting very close.”
Financial markets reacted quickly to the mixed signals of progress and escalation. Crude oil prices surged, with Brent crude rising 4.9% to $106.09 per barrel and WTI crude gaining 4.1% to $104.26. Elevated crude oil prices are raising concerns about inflation, as higher energy costs can feed into broader price pressures across global markets.
Equity markets turned risk off. S&P 500 futures fell 0.9% and Nasdaq futures declined 1%. Asian markets also moved lower, with the Nikkei down 1.7%, KOSPI dropping 3%, and Hang Seng slipping 0.6%, while technology shares declined. Energy shares rose alongside crude oil, with gains in CNOOC and PetroChina, while airline stocks fell sharply due to rising fuel costs.
Bond yields moved higher, with US 10 year yields rising by 3 basis points to 4.35%. The US dollar index rose 0.15%, showing demand for safety, while the Korean won weakened past 1,520 per dollar. Gold fell 2% and silver dropped 3%.
Trump reiterated that the United States will never allow Iran to obtain nuclear weapons and said diplomacy had been his first choice but was rejected. He claimed the United States is now fully independent of Middle East energy and does not need oil from the region. He also said the US has plenty of gas and does not depend on the Strait of Hormuz.
He warned that if no deal is reached, the United States could strike Iran’s electric generating plants very hard and likely simultaneously. He also stated that the US has avoided targeting Iran’s oil facilities so far, even though they are the easiest target, as it would remove any chance of recovery, adding that it could still do so if needed.
Trump said Iran tried to rebuild its nuclear program after Operation Midnight Hammer and claimed that the United States has struck all aspects of Iran’s military capability. He stated, “We have all the cards, they have none,” and said Americans can expect relief from the threat of nuclear blackmail.
Trump compared the duration of past US wars with the current operation, noting that this conflict has lasted 32 days so far. He also said the Strait would reopen naturally after the conflict ends and encouraged global nations to go to the Strait and protect it.
The current situation keeps focus on crude oil, inflation, interest rates, bond yields, and currency movements across global markets. Any escalation or resolution in the coming weeks will remain critical for market direction.
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