Japan’s Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) has mostly held power since the 1950s, with strong support from rural areas. But before this Sunday’s national election, that support seems to be weakening.
Polls suggest that the ruling coalition, led by Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba since October 1, might not win a majority for the first time since 2009, even though the LDP is likely to get more votes than any other party. This drop in support is largely due to a recent slush fund scandal that hurt the party’s reputation.
If the LDP loses its majority, Japanese markets might see a sharp drop on Monday. According to Nomura, if the LDP has to form alliances to stay in power, it’s a sign to “sell Japan.” Barclays predicts a quick dip in the market if the LDP and its partner, Komeito, lose their majority, with the impact depending on how big the loss is.
There are 465 seats up for grabs, with more than 1,300 candidates in the race. On Saturday, candidates made last-minute pitches across the country.
To hold a majority in the Lower House, a party needs 233 seats. The current ruling coalition started with 279 seats. Japan has about 45,000 polling stations, and vote counting will begin at 8 PM on Sunday.
Update
Japanese voters are heading to the polls on Sunday to choose representatives for the lower house, with an uncertain outcome. People are watching closely to see if the ruling coalition of the Liberal Democratic Party and Komeito will keep its majority and how the results will impact new Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba.
Voting will end at 8 p.m., with results expected to come in later that night and into the next morning.
By 6 p.m. local time, voter turnout was 29.01%, which is 2.63 percentage points lower than at the same time in the last election. Around 20.95 million people, or 20.11% of eligible voters, cast their votes early, according to the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications.
In addition to electing seats in the lower house, there is also a national review of Supreme Court judges, allowing citizens to vote on which judges they believe should resign. Since this globally uncommon system was established in 1949, no judge has ever been removed from office.
Update
Voting has concluded in Japan, and exit polls suggest the ruling coalition might lose its majority in the lower house. The main opposition, the Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP), along with the Democratic Party for the People, is projected to gain seats amid public discontent with the LDP due to a political funds scandal.
An NHK exit poll indicates Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party may not secure a single-party majority in the lower house. Initial results show the ruling coalition at 126 seats, while the opposition and others have 145. A total of 233 seats is needed to form a government.
Shinichi Ichikawa from Pictet Asset Management Japan stated that if the ruling coalition loses its majority, the Ishiba administration will be significantly weakened, especially with an upper house election next year potentially prompting another LDP presidential election if confidence wanes in Ishiba’s ability to win.
Support for the LDP has declined due to a slush fund scandal, with a recent Kyodo News poll showing only 22.6% backing for the party, narrowing its lead over the opposition. The yen has weakened to 153.19 per dollar, and while the BOJ operates independently, government influence on monetary policy is still a concern.
Despite expected losses for the LDP, a change in administration is unlikely, suggesting any negative effects on stocks will be mild and temporary. Investors are focused on the upcoming monetary policy meeting, with expectations that the BOJ’s rate-raising strategy is largely determined. JPMorgan strategists noted that the market anticipates the ruling coalition losing its majority, with historical trends indicating stock prices may decline unless the LDP secures 60% of seats.
Update
🚨 As of 12:05 AM, here are the election results:
Liberal Democratic Party has lost its majority for only the second time in Japanese history.
LDP: 151 seats
Komeito: 17 seats
Total for governing coalition: 168 seats
CDP: 124 seats
Ishin: 29 seats
DPFP: 21 seats
Reiwa: 7 seats
Communist: 6 seats
SDP: 1 seat
Conservative: 1 seat
Sanseito: 0 seats
Total for opposition: 200 seats
There are still 97 seats left to be projected.
Japan Election Results as of 1:20 AM:
LDP: 182 seats
Komeito: 22 seats
Governing Coalition Total: 204 seats
CDP: 142 seats
Ishin: 34 seats
DPFP: 24 seats
Reiwa: 8 seats
Communist: 7 seats
SDP: 1 seat
Conservative: 1 seat
Sanseito: 1 seat
Opposition Total: 229 seats
32 seats remaining to be projected
Update
🚨 LDP has confirmed that it is now pursuing a coalition with the DPFP.
Several LDP members are calling for Ishiba’s resignation.
Japan’s 2024 General Election – Final Results
LDP: 191 seats (-66)
Komeito: 22 seats (-8)
Total for governing coalition: 215 seats
CDP: 148 seats (+50)
Ishin: 38 seats (-6)
DPFP: 28 seats (+21)
Reiwa: 8 seats (+6)
Communist: 8 seats (-2)
Sanseito: 3 seats (+2)
Conservative: 3 seats (New)
SDP: 1 seat (-)
Total for opposition: 250 seats
The Japanese yen fell to the upper-153 level on Monday after the ruling coalition lost its majority in the general election held on Sunday, creating uncertainty about the country’s fiscal and monetary policies.
Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba faced an uncertain political future because his coalition, led by the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), lost its majority in the lower house. The opposition secured 235 seats, while the ruling coalition has 215, according to Nikkei’s confirmed seat count. The main opposition party, the Constitutional Democratic Party, gained 148 seats, up from 98 before the election. The LDP won 191 seats, down from 247, and Komeito won 24 seats.
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