The Indian rupee started weaker against the US dollar on Tuesday, opening at 83.92, currently at 83.94. This marks a slight depreciation of 4 paise compared to its previous close of 83.90 on Monday. Analysts expect the rupee to fluctuate between 83.85 and 83.95 throughout the day, with particular attention on the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) actions if the currency nears the 83.96-83.97 levels.
The weakening of the rupee is occurring alongside a modest rise in the dollar index, which tracks the performance of the US dollar against a basket of 10 leading global currencies. The index opened flat trading at 100.84.
One significant factor impacting the rupee is India’s expected increased weightage in the MSCI Global Standard Index, this change could lead to nearly $3 billion of capital flowing into the Indian market by the end of the month. This influx of foreign investment could provide vital support for the rupee amid current market conditions.
Investors are also keeping a close watch on the upcoming Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data release in the United States later this week. If the data shows weaker-than-expected results, it could lead to a softer dollar index, potentially giving some relief to the rupee. However, a stronger-than-expected outcome may further strengthen the dollar, putting additional pressure on the rupee.
The ongoing fluctuation in crude oil prices is also influencing the rupee’s performance, as lower crude prices tend to benefit the Indian economy by reducing import costs, which in turn could help stabilize the currency.
As the market awaits further economic data and developments, the rupee’s trajectory will likely be shaped by both domestic and international factors in the coming days.
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