China’s November Trade Report: Exports Rebound And Surplus Tops $1 Trillion

Key Highlights at a Glance

Exports: +5.9% YoY (better than expected)
Imports: +1.9% YoY (weaker than forecast)
Monthly trade surplus: $112 billion
Annual trade surplus: Surpassed $1 trillion for the first time
US–China trade surplus (Nov): $23.74 billion
US–China trade surplus (Jan–Nov): $257.15 billion

Why This Matters

Foreign demand remains a major support for China’s economy as domestic consumption weakens and the property sector struggles. Exports have contributed nearly one-third of total GDP growth this year.

Diversifying export markets beyond the United States has helped China stay on track to meet its ~5% GDP growth target.

Category-Wise Import & Export Breakdown

1. Copper Concentrates

November: 2.53 million tonnes (up from October’s 2.45m tonnes)
Jan–Nov: 27.61 million tonnes (vs. 25.57m tonnes last year)

2. Natural Gas Imports

November: 11.95 million tonnes (up from 9.78m tonnes in October)
Jan–Nov: 114.48 million tonnes (down from 120.12m tonnes YoY)

3. Iron Ore Imports

November: 110.54 million tonnes (slightly below October’s 111.31m tonnes)
Jan–Nov: 1,139.20 million tonnes (up from 1,123.61m tonnes YoY)

4. Rare Earth Exports

November: 5,493.9 tonnes (up from 4,343.5 tonnes in October)
Jan–Nov: 58,193.1 tonnes (vs. 52,104.9 tonnes last year)

5. Steel Product Exports

November: 9.98 million tonnes (higher than October’s 9.78m tonnes)
Jan–Nov: 107.72 million tonnes (vs. 100.99m tonnes YoY)

6. Aluminium Exports (Unwrought + Products)

November: 570,000 tonnes (up from 503,000 tonnes in October)
Jan–Nov: 5.589 million tonnes (down from 6.159m tonnes last year)

7. Oil Product Exports

November: 5.12 million tonnes (up from 4.52m tonnes)
Jan–Nov: 52.65 million tonnes (slightly below last year’s 54.40m tonnes)

8. Soybean Imports

November: 8.11 million tonnes (down from October’s 9.48m tonnes)
Jan–Nov: 103.79 million tonnes (higher than last year’s 97.09m tonnes)

Frequently Asked Questions

Q1: Why did China’s exports grow faster than expected in November?

Exports rebounded due to stronger demand from emerging markets, increased shipments of electronics, and improved global supply chain conditions.

Q2: What pushed China’s trade surplus above $1 trillion?

The surplus surged because export growth stayed resilient while import growth remained modest, widening the overall gap throughout the year.

Q3: How does this trade performance affect China’s GDP target?

Stronger exports help offset weak domestic consumption, keeping China on track to meet its GDP growth target of around 5% for the year.

Are There Weak Spots?

Yes. Several indicators point to underlying economic stress:

Natural gas imports fell on a year-to-date basis.
Aluminium exports remain below last year’s levels.
Domestic demand continues to lag due to the property downturn.

Final Summary

China’s November trade report shows a strong export recovery, moderate import growth, and a record-breaking annual surplus above $1 trillion. This momentum is crucial for stabilizing the economy as domestic sectors remain under pressure.

Update: China’s Export Power Expected to Grow Further

Morgan Stanley says China’s share of global goods exports could rise from about 15% today to 16.5% by the end of the decade. Economists credit China’s strong advanced manufacturing, its ability to spot changing global demand early, and its readiness to quickly invest and expand production.