China’s exports saw a surprising jump in July 2025, growing by 7.2% year-on-year. This was the fastest pace since April and higher than economists’ forecast of 5.6%, according to data released by Chinese customs on Thursday.
Imports also grew by 4.1% in July, resulting in a large trade surplus of $98.2 billion. This strong performance in exports came despite ongoing high US tariffs, showing that global demand for Chinese goods remains resilient.
Record Exports in First Half of 2025
In the first half of the year, China’s exports reached a record high. Many companies rushed to ship goods before new tariffs came into effect. This “front-loading” of exports helped boost the numbers, but experts warn that this effect may fade in the coming months.
Recent signs indicate that trade activity may be slowing down. Data shows that Chinese ports handled fewer containers during the week ending August 3. This was the second week in a row with declining port activity.
China’s Changing Trade Strategy
China is increasingly relying on other countries like Vietnam and Mexico to assemble or finish goods before sending them to the US. This shift began during the first US-China trade war and has sped up due to rising trade restrictions.
According to data, China’s share of value-added manufacturing for US-bound goods that pass through third countries rose to 22% in 2023, up from 14% in 2017. This trend helps China avoid some tariffs and maintain its role in global supply chains.
US-China Trade: Still Falling
Despite the export growth, China’s trade with the United States continues to decline:
- Exports to the US fell by 21.6% year-on-year in July.
- From January to July, dollar-denominated exports to the US dropped 12.6%, while imports from the US fell 10.3%.
- Total US-China trade in the first seven months of 2025 reached 2.42 trillion yuan, down 11.1% compared to last year.
- China’s trade surplus with the US for January to July stood at $165.5 billion.
Conclusion
China’s export performance in July 2025 was stronger than expected, driven by global demand and early shipments to beat tariffs. However, declining container activity at ports and weakening trade with the US signal possible challenges ahead. China’s shift toward using third countries like Vietnam and Mexico for final production shows how global trade patterns are changing in response to rising protectionism.
