China’s Q3 GDP growth is expected to be 4.5% year-over-year, down from 4.7% in Q2. On a quarterly basis, GDP growth for Q3 is expected to be 1.0%, up from 0.7% in Q2.
For 2024, GDP growth is projected at 4.8%, down from 5.0% in July, while 2025 growth is expected to be 4.5%. Consumer inflation for 2024 is forecasted at 0.5%, down from 0.6% in July, and for 2025, inflation is expected to be 1.4%.
The Chinese central bank is expected to cut the 7-day reverse repo rate by 20 basis points in Q1 2025. It is also predicted that the central bank will reduce the one-year loan prime rate by 20 basis points in Q4 2024 and cut the reserve requirement ratio by 25 basis points in Q4 2024.
According to the Bank of America’s October Global Fund Manager Survey, there has been the biggest jump in investor optimism since June 2020, driven by expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, stimulus in China, and a potential soft landing for the economy.
Cash levels among investors have decreased to 3.9% from 4.2%, indicating rising froth in the market. However, the Bank of America Bull & Bear Indicator has not yet reached a significant “sell signal.”
There has also been the largest increase in global equity allocation since June 2020, while bond allocations have seen a record drop.
Investors believe the upcoming U.S. election is most likely to impact trade policy (47%), followed by geopolitics (15%) and taxation (11%).
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