Brokerage Reports: Zee Entertainment Ratings Downgraded, ICICI Bank Maintains Positive Outlook, and Citi’s Market and Budget Projections

Zee Entertainment (CITI Research):
– Target: 180 (previously 340)
– Recommendation: Sell
– Valuation multiple expected to decrease.
– Non-operational concerns and increased competition highlighted.
– Potential consolidation of Reliance, Disney Star India may pose challenges.
– FY24-26 earnings estimates reduced by 22-38%.

Zee Entertainment (CLSA):
– Target: 198 (previously 300)
– Recommendation: Sell
– Valuation expected to decline.
– Intensified competition with reported Reliance & Disney Star merger.
– Low promoter ownership considered a challenge.
– Historical de-rating during promoter share pledging crisis mentioned.

Zee Entertainment (Emkay):
– Target: 175
– Recommendation: Sell
– Downgraded due to weak competitive positioning, corporate governance issues.
– Breakdown of merger seen as lose-lose for both players.
– Legal tussle anticipated, potential shareholder activism against Zee Management.

Zee Entertainment (Nuvama):
– Target: 190
– Recommendation: Reduce
– Near-term valuation expected to stay suppressed.
– Positive stance previously based on the merger.
– Downgraded due to changed industry dynamics, slower ad revenue ramp-up.
– FY25/26 EPS cut by ~16%/24%.

Zee Entertainment (Motilal Oswal):
– Target: 200
– Recommendation: Neutral
– No expected recovery in near-term earnings.
– Limited clarity on long-term business outlook.
– Media reports suggest Disney exploring potential India exit.
– Assuming zero value for OTT business, target price would be Rs 230.

ICICI Bank (Motilal Oswal):
– Target: 1,230
– Recommendation: Buy
– Balanced business growth expected, NIM decline to moderate in Q4.
– Steady quarter anticipated, driven by healthy NII and controlled provisions.
– Expects the bank to sustain a 15% CAGR in PAT over FY24-26E.

ICICI Bank (Emkay):
– Target: 1,400
– Recommendation: Buy
– Core performance meeting expectations.
– Preferred pick due to superior return profile, strong capital buffers.
– Believes margins will continue normalizing on rising funding costs.
– Expects superior ROA of 2.2-2.4% due to better cost management and strong provisioning buffer.

CITI on Indian Equity Markets:
– Near-term volatility around budgets declining.
– Rural/agri demand expected to benefit auto & consumer staples.
– Continued capex push, higher defense outlay & PLI to aid industrials.
– Excise cut on petrol/diesel, windfall tax phase out to impact oil & gas.
– Nifty target of 22,500 indicates 4% upside.

CITI on FY25 Budget:
– Government aims to balance pre-election political messaging, fiscal consolidation, and focus on capex.
– Pick-up in net revenue through non-tax sources.
– Revenue expenditure normalization offset by pickup in budgeted capex.
– Fiscal deficit projected at 5.5% of GDP.

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