Brokerage Reports: 15th December 2023

– CLSA on Insurance:
– Notable change in regulator’s draft guideline focuses on surrender value calculation for non-linked savings policies.
– New method likely to result in surrender values 10%-2x higher, potentially impacting insurers.

– Jefferies on Insurance:
– IRDAI proposes lower surrender charges on non-ulips.
– Introduction of threshold premium concept may increase surrender values, reducing fees for insurers.
– Final terms pending deliberations, insurers may offset impact by lowering costs.

– Nomura on IRDAI Proposal:
– Anticipates higher surrender values and lower VNB margins for non-linked insurance products.
– Concerns about potential deterrence of long-term investing by policyholders.
– Implementation could affect IRR on non-linked insurance products, with significant implications for product design and pricing.

– MS on Insurance:
– IRDA proposes higher surrender value on non-linked products.
– Investor concerns on VNB margins may be mitigated with industry options.

– HSBC on Real Estate (2024 outlook):
– Buy recommendations for Sobha and Prestige, hold for DLF and GPL, reduce for Oberoi.
– Target price adjustments based on outlook for each.

– HSBC on Consumer (2024 outlook):
– Predicts a deepening divergence in valuation and earnings growth in 2023.
– Emphasizes pricing power as key, expecting staples to underperform discretionary.
– Key ideas for 2024 include Avenue Supermarts, Asian Paints, Colgate (upgraded to Buy), Titan, and Nykaa.

– MS on Bharti Airtel:
– Assumes a cumulative ARPU increase of >20% over the next 24-30 months.
– Believes this increase is already reflected in the current stock price.

– UBS on Dixon Tech:
– Initiates Buy with a target price of Rs 7700.
– Highlights diversification and substantial opportunities in mobile and IT hardware.
– Acknowledges the higher valuation, justified by strong earnings CAGR.

– UBS on Amber Ent:
– Initiates Buy with a target price of Rs 4075.
– Points to a pivot to components and electronics adding drivers and sustainability.
– Identifies key risks, including customer concentration, labor relations, commodity price volatility, and competition.

– UBS on BEL:
– Recommends Buy with a target price of Rs 205.
– Expects order intake to be revised up, benefiting from the expanding defense manufacturing ecosystem.