Goldman Sachs expects oil prices to gradually fall over the next two years. They believe Brent could drop to around $62 per barrel and WTI to $58 by the end of 2025, then fall further to $55 and $51 in 2026. This forecast is based on two main ideas: the U.S. economy will likely stay strong because of upcoming tariff cuts starting April 9, and oil supply from OPEC+ will slightly increase in mid-2025. However, if the U.S. changes its trade policies or faces an economic slowdown, these prices could shift. For example, if a recession hits, Brent might fall to $50 by the end of 2026.
In more extreme situations, like a global economic slowdown along with a full removal of OPEC+ supply cuts, Brent prices might even fall below $40 per barrel. Still, Goldman Sachs doesn’t think oil will stay that low for long. They believe rising U.S. shale production would keep prices from dropping too far, and any possible recession in 2025 may not be very deep, since there aren’t major financial problems in the private sector.
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