Live News Blog

Iran Accuses US of Threatening to Starve Its People Through Blockade

• Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei accused Washington of openly threatening to starve the Iranian population through its blockade.
• In a social media post, Baghaei criticised US Secretary of State's remarks, quoting: "They will have to eat eventually."
• He described the alleged threat as evidence of what Iran considers US war crimes and an escalation of its aggression and economic pressure against Tehran.
• Baghaei said decades of sanctions, threats, coercion and military action had failed to achieve their objectives, accusing Washington of repeating the same policies under different forms.
• He compared the US approach to what historian Barbara Tuchman described as a "foolish march" — a government persisting with a policy despite repeated setbacks.

Key takeaway: Tehran has accused Washington of using its blockade as a tool of economic coercion, intensifying the rhetoric between the two countries. The allegations reflect Iran's position and have not been independently established.

Microsoft 365 Outage Hits Businesses Worldwide, Raises Questions Over AI-Led Job Cuts

• Microsoft 365 services, including Outlook, Teams and Copilot, suffered a disruption lasting more than 12 hours, affecting businesses and government organisations worldwide.
• Microsoft blamed a failed component responsible for processing server health checks. It said there was no indication of a cyberattack or malicious activity.
• The company also said an overwhelmed process responsible for establishing secure server connections had stopped handling requests.
• Recovery progressed in phases on Friday. Microsoft temporarily extended the delivery window for delayed emails by 48 hours while clearing backlogs.
• The outage affected organisations across 74 countries, according to Downdetector data cited by The National. Companies including Euronext, Aviva and Maersk reported problems, while Workhorse Group postponed its earnings call.
• The disruption came about three weeks after Microsoft offered voluntary exit packages to employees in the US, Canada, India and the UK as part of an AI-driven efficiency push. The offer reportedly covered more than 60,000 employees, with decisions due by December 9.
• AI security expert Zack Korman warned that simultaneously rebuilding legacy systems, introducing new technology and reducing labour costs could undermine operational stability. However, he said the connection between the job cuts and this outage remains unclear.
• Cybersecurity expert Dan Card said the cause could not be established, but the incident highlighted the risks of relying heavily on a small number of technology providers.

Key takeaway: Microsoft attributed the outage to a technical failure, not a cyberattack. While no direct link to its workforce reductions has been established, the incident has renewed concerns about operational resilience as major technology companies restructure around AI.

Jaishankar Says India-US Trade Deal Nears Finish Line, Most Issues Resolved

• External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar said most issues in the India-US trade negotiations have been resolved, with the remaining concerns largely on Washington's side.
• Speaking at the Hindustan Times Leadership Summit on Saturday, Jaishankar said the negotiations had reached the "almost the finishing line" and urged patience as both sides work towards completing the agreement.
• An Indian official said the US had promised India lower tariffs than competing countries, including Vietnam, Indonesia and Cambodia. However, the preferential treatment will take effect only after Washington finalises its broader tariff framework.
• The first phase of the agreement is expected to cover goods only, with services negotiations reserved for the second phase. Both countries are targeting completion of the first tranche by the end of the current financial year in March.
• Discussions in early November also resolved several issues under the customs and trade facilitation chapter, according to reports.
• India continues to protect sensitive sectors, including dairy, agriculture and genetically modified products, in the negotiations.
• Jaishankar also said the outcome of the US midterm elections would not fundamentally change bilateral relations.
• A former senior US diplomat told PTI that both countries were hoping to conclude the first phase, potentially ahead of the G20 Summit in Florida next month.

Key takeaway: India and the US appear close to concluding the first phase of their trade agreement, with preferential tariff treatment and protection of sensitive Indian sectors among the key outstanding considerations.

Trump Weighs Delaying Military Strikes on Iran as US Prepares for Possible Escalation

• US President Donald Trump is considering postponing potential military strikes on Iran, provided Tehran and Iran-backed Houthi forces in Yemen avoid further provocative actions, according to a Reuters report citing three people familiar with the discussions.
• Trump has not made a final decision and is weighing whether to escalate military operations or wind them down. Following meetings with his national security adviser and intelligence briefings, he has signalled some alignment with regional allies urging restraint to avoid a wider conflict.
• Despite the possibility of a delay, the US military remains prepared to escalate if necessary. A third aircraft carrier is expected to enter the Middle East in the coming days to replace one of the two currently deployed. All three carriers could remain in the region simultaneously if required.
• Trump also retains the option of targeting Iran's underground nuclear facilities. Previous US strikes hit those sites, although the effectiveness of further attacks remains uncertain.
• US intelligence assessments indicate that renewed military strikes would be unlikely to significantly change Iran's negotiating demands.
• Separately, Iraq's Armed Forces General Command denied reports that Iraqi airspace would be closed for 72 hours, according to Iran's IRNA news agency.

Key takeaway: Washington is weighing diplomatic and military options as it maintains a significant military presence in the Middle East. A decision to delay strikes remains possible, but escalation has not been ruled out.

Alibaba and Tencent Lose $75 Billion in Market Value Amid Nvidia Leadership Controversy

• Alibaba and Tencent have lost approximately $75 billion in combined market value over a week, as investors assess the potential impact of tighter US restrictions on China's access to advanced AI chips, according to the Financial Times.
• The sell-off intensified following reports surrounding Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang and concerns that his departure could strengthen Washington's push to restrict Chinese companies' remote access to advanced chips.
• The US Commerce Department is reportedly finalising a rule to block Chinese companies from accessing advanced US chips remotely through overseas data centres.
• Alibaba shares fell as much as 7.3% in Hong Kong on Thursday, November 12, closing 6.8% lower. Alibaba was reportedly a key customer of Singapore-based Megaspeed, which deployed Nvidia servers in Malaysian data centres.
• Selling pressure continued on Friday, November 13, affecting Tencent, Alibaba and smaller Chinese AI developers.
• Chinese semiconductor companies moved in the opposite direction. Cambricon gained more than 11% on Thursday, while Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC) also advanced as investors anticipated stronger demand for domestic chip alternatives.
• Beijing accused Washington of fabricating espionage narratives and warned against using the Nvidia controversy as a pretext for additional technology restrictions.
• The developments come ahead of the planned meeting between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping at the APEC summit in Shenzhen on November 18–19.
• Trump has previously supported allowing Nvidia to sell chips to China, viewing access to advanced semiconductors as a potential bargaining tool in trade negotiations.

Key takeaway: Concerns over tighter US chip restrictions are weighing on Chinese technology stocks, while domestic semiconductor companies are benefiting from expectations that buyers may increasingly turn to local alternatives.

Musk Says Tesla Cybercab's $299 Monthly Subscription Fee Is Too High

• Tesla has opened Cybercab purchase access to a select group of invited individual customers, with prices starting at $29,990 and initial deliveries expected in December.
• Initial allocations are limited to the Austin, Texas area. Customers must pay a non-refundable $1,000 deposit to place an order.
• Buyers are also required to subscribe to a $299-per-month autonomous-driving service to operate the vehicle.
• Responding to a user's post, Elon Musk said the monthly subscription fee was too high and should be closer to the combined cost of Full Self-Driving (FSD) and connectivity services on other Tesla models, which he put at approximately $115 per month.
• Musk added that the service would expand nationwide once regulatory approval is secured.

Key takeaway: Musk has signalled that Tesla may reconsider Cybercab's $299 monthly subscription pricing, while nationwide availability remains dependent on regulatory approval.

China and US Hold First Trade Council Meeting, Discuss Tariffs and Agricultural Trade

• China and the United States held the first meeting of the Trade Council under their Economic and Trade Consultation Mechanism via videoconference on November 13.
• Guided by the consensus reached between the two countries' leaders, officials held what both sides described as frank, substantive and constructive discussions.
• Key topics included tariffs, the proposed "$30 billion for $30 billion" reciprocal tariff reduction arrangement, agricultural trade and other bilateral economic and trade concerns.
• The discussions focused on implementing outcomes from previous rounds of China-US economic and trade consultations.
• Both sides agreed to maintain communication through the Trade Council, work towards resolving outstanding trade concerns, expand areas of cooperation and narrow differences.
• The two countries said the mechanism would support efforts to build a constructive and stable strategic relationship based on respect, fairness and reciprocity.

Key takeaway: The first Trade Council meeting signals continued engagement between Washington and Beijing on tariffs, agricultural trade and implementation of earlier trade agreements.

US Treasury Secretary Bessent Moves to Military Base After Wall Street Journal Publishes Home Location

• US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said he relocated from his residence to a military base on the instructions of the US Secret Service, citing security concerns.
• In an interview with CNBC, Bessent said one reason for the move was a Wall Street Journal photograph of his home that reportedly contained location information.
• Bessent said he had asked the newspaper's editor not to publish the location but the request was ignored. He called the decision "extremely irresponsible and very dangerous" and said such practices must stop.
• Bessent also claimed that Iranian leaders had issued death threats against him, linking the threats to the Trump administration's economic isolation campaign against Iran.
• He said the threats indicated that the administration's economic pressure measures were having an impact.

Key takeaway: Bessent's relocation highlights security concerns surrounding senior US officials, while his comments link the alleged threats to Washington's economic pressure campaign against Iran.

Goldman Sachs Forecasts 2.8% Global Growth in 2027, Expects Two More Fed Rate Hikes

• Goldman Sachs forecasts global economic growth of 2.8% in 2027, up from an estimated 2.7% in 2026, as lower energy prices and continued artificial intelligence investment help offset tighter financial conditions.
• The bank expects the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates in December 2026 and March 2027, followed by a rate cut in December 2027. It then projects three additional cuts in 2028, bringing the policy rate to 3.25%–3.5%.
• Goldman assigns a 50% probability to this baseline scenario, a 35% probability to a scenario involving an additional rate hike and a 15% probability to a recession.
• The bank's commodity strategists expect Brent crude prices to fall to $78 per barrel by the end of 2027, as Middle Eastern supply continues to recover. Lower energy costs could turn oil from a drag on global growth into a modest positive.
• Goldman expects global nominal AI investment to increase to $1.8 trillion in 2027, from $1.1 trillion in 2026. The additional spending is projected to contribute around 0.4 percentage points to global economic growth, with more than $500 billion in additional US hardware investment accounting for much of the increase.
• However, the bank expects the AI investment cycle to peak, with S&P 500 earnings growth slowing from 36% in 2026 to 11% in 2027.
• Goldman added the March rate hike to its forecast following stronger-than-expected October US inflation data. Consumer prices rose 0.4% during the month, against economists' expectations of 0.3%.
• Despite near-term inflation pressures, the bank expects US core PCE inflation to ease from 3.2% at the end of 2026 to 2.4% by the end of 2027, partly as the impact of tariffs fades.
• Chief Economist Jan Hatzius warned that risks to the outlook are tilted to the downside, identifying three major threats: renewed conflict involving Iran that could push energy prices higher, rising long-term bond yields amid large fiscal deficits, particularly in France, and weaker-than-expected AI investment.
• Hatzius also pointed to early signs that AI adoption could be weighing on employment. He said the US faces greater dovish rate risks than most other economies because its inflation pressures appear more temporary and its economy is more exposed to a potential downturn in the AI investment cycle.

Key takeaway: Goldman sees slightly stronger global growth in 2027, supported by cheaper energy and AI spending, but warns that geopolitical risks, rising bond yields and a potential slowdown in AI investment could undermine the outlook.

Microsoft Outage Forces Global Trading Desks Back to Phones, WhatsApp and Fax

A global Microsoft outage disrupted financial market operations from Tokyo to Houston, forcing traders to rely on phone calls, WhatsApp and fax after Outlook and other Microsoft services became unavailable.

• Traders across financial centres struggled with email disruptions, while Microsoft eventually traced the outage to an issue during an earlier network capacity upgrade that surfaced after subsequent network changes.
• Microsoft said on Friday that the underlying issue had been fixed and services were gradually being restored.
• Eugene Koh, a sales trader at CMC Markets Singapore, told Bloomberg that traders returned to phone calls and WhatsApp, with messaging activity higher than usual.
• Ryutaro Kimura, a senior bond strategist at BNP Paribas Asset Management in Tokyo, said trading largely continued, but delayed confirmations created settlement problems for back-office teams.
• Reuters reported that a Taiwanese company cancelled a bond repurchase because of the outage. Another Taiwanese financial firm reportedly used fax to confirm short-term bill transactions that would normally be handled through email.
• HSBC warned employees against using personal email accounts or unauthorised WhatsApp workarounds to bypass the disruption.
• Some trading professionals reported lower volumes in certain markets on Friday.
• Oil traders were also affected as crude prices fluctuated amid developments surrounding potential US-Iran peace talks. BOK Financial Securities' Dennis Kissler said his team spent an hour before realising emails were not being delivered, describing the period as a "one-hour black hole".
• S&P Global's Platts warned that commodity price updates could be delayed and asked market participants to submit information through phone calls or instant messaging. It also temporarily withheld 22 biofuels prices before later confirming the incident was resolved.
• Outside financial markets, Aviva shifted to backup systems for earnings calls, while Workhorse Group postponed its results announcement to November 16.

Key takeaway: The outage exposed the financial industry's dependence on email and cloud infrastructure, with even routine trade confirmations and settlement processes disrupted. Despite the technology failure, traditional communication methods helped keep much of the trading activity moving.

YES Bank Denies ₹32 Crore Cyber Fraud Loss, Says No Government Accounts Were Compromised

YES Bank on Friday, November 13, denied a media report alleging that it suffered a cyber fraud loss of approximately ₹32 crore ($3.4 million) involving government accounts, saying its systems were not compromised and no financial loss occurred.

• The clarification follows a November 13 report by The Banker, a Financial Times Group publication, titled "India on high alert after alleged $3.4mn cyber loss at Yes Bank".
• The report alleged that the bank suffered a cyber fraud incident involving government accounts towards the end of October 2026.
• YES Bank said no government accounts were affected and there was no financial loss linked to the alleged incident.
• The bank described the report's claims as factually incorrect and said they did not reflect the actual situation.
• YES Bank said it had contacted the publication, highlighted the alleged inaccuracies and sought a retraction.
• The bank also warned that incorrect reporting could damage its reputation and create unnecessary concerns among stakeholders.

Key takeaway: YES Bank has categorically denied the reported ₹32 crore cyber fraud loss, maintaining that neither its systems nor government accounts were compromised.

Microsoft Resolves Root Cause of Global Outage, but More Than 20 Services Remain Affected

Microsoft has resolved the root cause of its global service outage and is working to restore access for customers and regions still experiencing disruptions.

• The company said the outage originated from an issue during an earlier network capacity upgrade, which became apparent following subsequent network changes.
• Microsoft reported progress in restoring services, with availability improving and email queues significantly reduced to near-normal levels.
• However, users of more than 20 Microsoft products and services may continue to experience errors as recovery efforts continue.
• The outage affected government agencies, traders and businesses worldwide, disrupting access to Microsoft's flagship software and cloud services.
• Microsoft said core processes on some servers became unresponsive under excessive load, while initial troubleshooting and remediation efforts were complicated by further server errors.
• The company said there was no evidence of malicious activity behind the disruption.
• Microsoft plans to provide additional details after services are fully restored.

Key takeaway: Microsoft has fixed the underlying network issue, but service restoration remains ongoing across affected products and regions.

UPI Payments to Remain Free for Individuals as NPCI Plans MDR on Select Merchant Transactions

The Finance Ministry has clarified that person-to-person (P2P) UPI transfers will remain free, while Merchant Discount Rate (MDR) charges will apply only to selected merchant transactions, according to state broadcaster Akashvani.

• NPCI has deferred the proposed 0.4% MDR on eligible merchant UPI payments above ₹2,000 from October 15 to a date after Diwali. However, it has not yet announced a revised implementation date.
• Under NPCI's framework, the 0.4% charge will apply to eligible person-to-merchant (P2M) transactions above ₹2,000, subject to a maximum fee of ₹300 for transactions of ₹75,000 or more.
• Railways, telecom, insurance, fuel and agricultural input payments will attract a flat ₹5 charge per eligible transaction.
• Payments to capital-market firms will carry an MDR of 0.02%, according to Mint.
• Small merchants receiving up to ₹1 lakh per month through UPI QR codes will remain exempt.
• The Finance Ministry estimates that around 96% of merchant transactions will remain unaffected.
• The framework is facing a challenge in the Supreme Court. In an affidavit dated November 3, NPCI told the court that merchants would not be allowed to pass the charges on to customers.
• NPCI has argued that MDR is necessary to support the UPI ecosystem. The Finance Ministry estimates industry operating costs at ₹20,700 crore, against a budget allocation of ₹2,000 crore for FY27.
• Emkay Global Financial Services estimates that the charges could affect around 4% of merchant transaction volumes. It projects FY28 UPI MDR revenue of ₹1,120 crore for Paytm and ₹155 crore for Pine Labs.
• NPCI's November 11 circular introduced the three-year UPI Vyapaar Saksham Scheme, under which merchant fee collections will help compensate banks for onboarding small merchants.
• Industry opinion remains divided. Some payment industry participants argue that MDR is necessary for long-term UPI sustainability, while merchant groups and industry bodies have sought a delay or withdrawal of the proposal.

Key takeaway: Individual UPI transfers and most merchant payments are expected to remain free, but NPCI's proposed MDR framework could introduce charges on a limited category of high-value merchant transactions. Its implementation date remains unannounced, with the framework also facing a Supreme Court challenge.

US Producer Inflation Rises 6.5% in October, Below Expectations; Stock Futures Advance

US producer price inflation accelerated to 6.5% year-on-year in October, its highest level since November 2022, but came in below the market expectation of 6.6%.

• The Producer Price Index (PPI) increased 0.3% month-on-month, below the estimated 0.4%.
• Annual core PPI, excluding food and energy, rose 5.0%, matching expectations and remaining unchanged from the previous month.
• The previous month's monthly PPI reading was revised upward from 1.3% to 1.4%.
• Following the release, markets reduced expectations of further Federal Reserve rate hikes.
• US stock index futures extended gains, with S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures initially rising around 0.5%.
• US Treasury yields moved in mixed directions. The 2-year yield fell 2.64 basis points to 4.853%, while the 10-year yield rose 3.42 basis points to 5.125%.

Key takeaway: Headline producer inflation came in below expectations despite reaching a nearly four-year high, offering some relief to markets concerned about persistent US inflation and further Fed tightening.

US Treasury Secretary Bessent Says Fed Should Avoid Excessive Rate Hikes as Energy Shock Eases

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the US economy remains strong and warned the Federal Reserve against overreacting to an energy supply shock that he expects to subside.Key comments from Bessent:

• Federal Reserve: The Fed should remain open-minded and forward-looking, recognising that current inflationary pressures are driven by an energy supply shock.
• Interest rates: It would be inappropriate to raise interest rates excessively as the energy supply shock is expected to ease.
• Inflation: Core inflation remains under control. Falling gasoline prices could contribute to a modest inflation reading next week.
• US economy: Economic fundamentals remain very strong, with no warning signs. Bessent expressed confidence in the economic outlook.
• Iran: The US will continue putting pressure on Iran and will not hesitate to impose sanctions on Iranian banks.
• Energy: Iran has caused an energy supply shock, but the US economy will get through it.
• Bond market: Recent Treasury auctions have been strong, with Bessent highlighting four of the strongest bond auctions in 20 years and robust demand for the US dollar.
• Trade: The US will stick to trade agreements favourable to American interests. Bessent also expressed optimism about reaching trade agreements with Canada and Mexico.
• Nvidia: Bessent praised Nvidia, saying the company has successfully expanded beyond its dependence on its founder.

Separate development: US auto safety regulators are urging owners of nearly 721,000 BMW vehicles to park them outdoors until fire-related repairs are completed.Key takeaway: Bessent is signalling confidence in the US economy while arguing that the Federal Reserve should look through temporary energy-driven inflation rather than respond with excessive rate hikes.

Texas Incoming Attorney General Vows Strict Scrutiny of Potential Tesla-SpaceX Merger

Texas Attorney General-designate Nathan Johnson has vowed to subject any potential merger between Elon Musk's Tesla and SpaceX to rigorous scrutiny, citing concerns over excessive corporate concentration.

• Johnson said any merger involving companies of this size would deserve "extremely rigorous scrutiny".
• Musk has concentrated a significant part of his business empire in Texas, which offers a more Republican-friendly regulatory environment.
• The billionaire reportedly spent hundreds of millions of dollars supporting Republican candidates and political organisations during the US midterm elections.
• Texas Democrats, including Johnson, Governor-elect Inohosa and Senator-elect Talarico, have pledged to challenge Musk's influence in the state.
• Johnson alleged that Musk had received preferential treatment because of his political alliance with Republicans and substantial campaign spending.
• He said he had no reservations about examining Musk's relationship with the Texas government.

Key takeaway: A potential Tesla-SpaceX merger could face heightened regulatory scrutiny in Texas, where Musk has significant business interests.

BofA Sees Record $1.4 Trillion Flowing Into Global Equity Funds; Goldman Expects US Bond Yields to Ease

Bank of America: Global equity funds attract record inflowsGlobal equity funds are attracting record inflows this year, with annualised investments reaching $1.4 trillion, according to Bank of America strategists led by Michael Hartnett.

• US equity funds attracted $656 billion, technology funds received $222 billion, and South Korean equity funds recorded $78 billion in inflows.
• BofA said these inflows provide significant support to equity markets, but noted that few investors are taking short positions or meaningfully underweighting equities despite bearish sentiment.
• The strategists said risk assets have struggled over the past six months as bullish investor positioning has collided with tighter monetary policy.
• BofA maintains a defensive stance until rate hikes end and financial conditions ease.
• The bank identified three conditions that could support a more favourable outlook: US crude oil prices falling below $70 a barrel, the US dollar reversing its recent gains and the 10-year US Treasury yield declining below 4.5%.

Goldman Sachs: 10-year US Treasury yield seen falling to 4.6% by end-2027Goldman Sachs strategists, including Kamakshya Trivedi, expect the 10-year US Treasury yield to decline to 4.6% by the end of 2027.

• The bank considers US Treasuries attractively valued, with yields offering compelling investment opportunities.
• Greater demand for Treasuries as a portfolio hedge and moderating inflation are expected to support bond prices and push yields lower.
• Goldman expects its yield forecast to remain below prevailing market consensus.
• However, strategists warned that the recent rise in Treasury yields is creating pressure across financial markets and that current elevated yield levels may be difficult to sustain.

Key takeaway: BofA highlights record equity inflows but remains cautious about market positioning and monetary tightening, while Goldman expects moderating inflation and stronger demand for bonds to bring long-term US Treasury yields lower.

US-India Trade Deal Nears Finalisation as Washington Assures Lower Tariffs for India

The United States has reportedly assured India that it will face lower tariffs than comparable countries under a trade agreement currently nearing finalisation, according to a person familiar with the negotiations.

• The first phase of the agreement, following nearly two years of negotiations, will cover goods only. Trade in services will be addressed in a subsequent phase.
• India and the US finalised a framework for the agreement earlier this year, but a formal pact has yet to be signed.
• A series of US trade investigations and tariff-related developments have complicated negotiations.
• Recent US measures allowing President Donald Trump to impose tariffs of up to 100% on major buyers of Russian oil added tensions. These tariffs have since been waived.
• Officials in New Delhi and Washington have recently indicated that most major issues have been resolved and the agreement is close to completion.
• Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal confirmed that a US delegation visited India in early November for trade discussions.
• Goyal described the outcome as a "very good agreement" and said India would have "one of the best agreements with the US".
• US Ambassador to India Sergio Gor also said last month that most major issues in the negotiations had been resolved.

Key takeaway: The proposed agreement could give Indian goods preferential tariff treatment in the US compared with those from comparable countries, although the final terms and formal signing remain pending.

ICICI Bank Expects Two More RBI Rate Hikes, Sees Repo Rate Rising in December and February

ICICI Bank expects the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to raise the repo rate by 25 basis points in December, followed by another 25-basis-point hike in February, as inflationary pressures remain elevated.

• India's retail inflation rose to 6.09% in October, up from 5.54% in September, crossing the RBI's upper tolerance limit of 6% and reaching its highest level since October 2024.
• ICICI Bank found that around 53% of the weighted CPI basket now has inflation above 4%, compared with 20% in March 2026.
• Nearly 70% of food items are recording inflation above 4%, with price pressures across pulses, cereals, edible oils, meat, milk and eggs.
• Core inflation, excluding gold and silver, increased to 3.8% from 3.2%, reflecting higher input costs being passed on and a low base following GST cuts.
• ICICI Bank identified a weak monsoon and elevated energy prices as two major supply-side shocks. Lower-than-expected kharif output and low reservoir levels have also increased risks to rabi crop production and food prices.
• The bank expects food inflation to remain elevated over the next few quarters, although a high base could help moderate it in the second half of FY28.
• ICICI Bank raised its FY27 CPI inflation forecast to 5.2% from 5.1% and its FY28 forecast to 5.0% from 4.9%.
• At its October 5–7 meeting, the RBI's Monetary Policy Committee unanimously raised the repo rate by 25 basis points to 5.50% and shifted its stance to calibrated tightening.
• Forecasts for the December policy decision remain divided. SBI Chairman CS Setty expects a 50-basis-point hike, while SBI economists now see a 25-basis-point increase. Jefferies expects a hike of 25–50 basis points.
• SBI economists have assigned a 50% probability to the December hike being the final increase in the current cycle.
• The RBI's next Monetary Policy Committee meeting is scheduled for December 2–4. Renewed foreign portfolio inflows and softer crude prices could also influence the decision.

Key takeaway: Persistent food and core inflation have strengthened expectations of further RBI tightening, but the size and duration of the rate-hike cycle remain uncertain.

SBI Sees Brent Crude Falling to $70 in 2027, Expects Smaller RBI Rate Hike in December

State Bank of India (SBI) expects Brent crude prices to ease to around $70 a barrel in 2027, supported by the possibility of a US-Iran peace deal and higher crude exports from the Middle East.

• SBI's Ecowrap report said easing geopolitical tensions, more predictable US policies after the midterm elections and rising Middle Eastern oil exports could bring prices closer to February 2026 levels.
• Brent crude has declined 11.1% since the US elections, according to BasisPoint Insight's reading of the report. Prices also slipped on November 12 amid hopes of renewed US-Iran peace talks.
• Oil prices surged after fighting between the US and Iran began in February, briefly eased in June and climbed again after a potential agreement collapsed. Brent reached around $115 a barrel approximately two weeks ago.
• Higher crude prices have increased inflationary pressure in India, which imports around 85% of its crude oil requirements.
• SBI has also revised its RBI policy outlook, now expecting a 25-basis-point repo rate hike in December, instead of a larger 50-basis-point increase.
• India's CPI inflation rose to 6.09% in October, crossing the RBI's 6% upper tolerance limit for the first time under the new series. SBI expects inflation to remain above 6% for another month before easing.
• The report cited a steadier rupee, the possibility of lower US-Iran tensions and softer US Treasury yields as factors supporting the smaller rate-hike outlook.
• Foreign investors have invested approximately $7.65 billion in Indian markets since November 6.
• SBI expects the repo rate to peak at around 6%, while assigning a 50% probability to a lower peak of 5.75%. It said another hike in February would be inadvisable given its proximity to the Union Budget.
• The bank also believes concerns about El Niño's impact on food inflation may be overstated, with effects likely to be concentrated in crops such as oilseeds, sugarcane and pulses.

Key takeaway: SBI sees the possibility of lower crude prices easing India's imported inflation pressure, potentially allowing the RBI to opt for a smaller rate hike in December.

NSEIX Global Access Adds Seven European Markets, Expanding Platform Beyond US Stocks

NSEIX Global Access has added seven European markets, including the UK, France, Germany and Switzerland, to its global investment platform, which previously offered access only to US stocks.

• The expansion, launched on November 12, brings the platform's offering to more than 11,500 securities, including over 8,200 UCITS ETFs, across seven countries through a single account.
• UCITS ETFs, which follow Europe's regulatory framework, provide exposure to global indices, sectors, themes and asset classes without requiring investors to select individual stocks. The company also highlighted potential tax advantages associated with the structure.
• The exact securities available have not yet been specified and will depend on platform listings and applicable regulations.
• Indian investors can fund their accounts through the RBI's Liberalised Remittance Scheme (LRS), which permits annual overseas remittances of up to $250,000 per person.
• Trades can start from $10, with accounts maintained in US dollars. A 20% Tax Collected at Source (TCS) applies once annual remittances exceed ₹10 lakh.
• The European rollout came later than the timeline indicated by NSEIX CEO V Balasubramaniam in February, when he said access to around 30 markets was expected within three to six months.
• NSEIX Global Access is a wholly owned subsidiary of NSE International Exchange and the first Indian entity registered as a Global Access Provider by the International Financial Services Centres Authority (IFSCA).
• Earlier this month, NSE International Exchange extended trading hours to 23.5 hours a day, from 3:15 am to 2:45 am IST the following day, covering Asian, European and US market sessions.

Key takeaway: The expansion gives Indian investors access to a broader range of international securities, particularly European-listed UCITS ETFs, through a single GIFT City-based platform.

India's Trade Deficit Widens to $39.88 Billion in October as Gold and Crude Imports Surge

• India's merchandise trade deficit widened to $39.88 billion in October 2026, compared with $30.21 billion in September, according to government data released on Friday.
• Merchandise imports hit a record $89.35 billion, outpacing record exports of $49.47 billion.
• Gold imports nearly tripled to $5.51 billion from $1.8 billion in September as jewellers and consumers increased purchases ahead of Diwali.
• Higher crude oil import costs, driven partly by disruptions in energy markets due to the Middle East conflict, also contributed to the increase in imports. India sources nearly 85% of its crude oil requirements from overseas.
• The trade deficit was wider than Bloomberg's median forecast of $33.30 billion, but remained below the October 2025 record of $42.58 billion.
• Trade Secretary Rajesh Agrawal said India recorded its highest-ever monthly merchandise exports in October. Shipments benefited from new export markets and trade agreements with the UK and New Zealand.
• From April to October, merchandise exports increased nearly 22% to $309.06 billion, while imports rose 16% to $527.21 billion. The cumulative merchandise trade deficit stood at $218.15 billion.
• Services exports were estimated at $40.51 billion against imports of $20.72 billion, generating a surplus of $19.79 billion.
• Including services, India's total exports reached $89.99 billion in October, while the overall trade deficit narrowed to $20.09 billion.
• The US remained India's largest export market. Merchandise exports to the country rose 14.5% to $59.52 billion during April-October.
• Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal said only a few issues remain unresolved in negotiations on the first phase of the India-US trade agreement.

Key takeaway: Record exports were unable to offset surging gold and crude imports, widening India's merchandise trade deficit and potentially adding pressure on the rupee through higher demand for foreign currency.

Cloudflare and Claude Face Service Disruptions as Microsoft 365 Outage Continues

• Users of Cloudflare and Anthropic's AI chatbot Claude reported service disruptions on Friday, November 13, adding to the ongoing Microsoft 365 outage affecting Outlook and other workplace applications.
• The simultaneous incidents triggered concerns about a wider internet disruption, with searches for “Cloudflare down”, “Claude down” and “Outlook not working” gaining traction.
• Cloudflare outage: The company reported elevated error rates affecting its Durable Objects service in North America. The incident was marked as resolved at 3:44 UTC on November 13.
• Durable Objects is a Cloudflare service that allows developers to build applications requiring persistent data storage and coordination between users or processes.
• Cloudflare also listed scheduled maintenance at data centres in Chicago, Frankfurt, Boston and Sioux Falls, although no confirmed connection to the Microsoft outage was established.
• Claude disruption: Anthropic users faced problems with the chatbot's Microsoft 365 connector, affecting access to workplace emails, calendars and search functions.
• Some users also reported difficulties connecting Microsoft accounts and accessing the Claude for Outlook add-in.
• The Claude disruption was primarily related to Microsoft 365 integrations and did not necessarily indicate that its core chatbot service was unavailable.
• Anthropic linked the connector-related problems to the disruption affecting Microsoft's services.

Key takeaway: Cloudflare, Claude and Microsoft 365 experienced overlapping service disruptions, but the incidents did not appear to share a common cause. The Cloudflare issue was resolved, while Claude's integration problems were linked to Microsoft's separate outage.

Iran Claims Destruction of US Early-Warning Radar in Bahrain as Regional Tensions Escalate

• Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) claimed on Friday, November 13, that it had destroyed a US military early-warning radar installation in Bahrain.
• The IRGC described the strike as retaliation for an alleged US air attack on a telecommunications tower in Sirik, Hormozgan province, southern Iran.
• Neither Washington nor Manama had immediately confirmed the reported destruction of the radar system.
• According to Iranian state media, a telecommunications tower in Sirik was hit by what it described as "enemy fire" on Thursday.
• The reported Bahrain strike marks a potential escalation in Iran's confrontation with US military assets in the Gulf region.
• Other reported military activity: US forces have carried out limited strikes on Qeshm Island and other coastal areas near the Strait of Hormuz in recent days. US officials described the operations as defensive.
• Maritime tensions: Iranian state television reported fires involving multiple oil tankers near the Strait of Hormuz, while the Iranian military claimed two vessels had struck naval mines. These incidents have not been independently established.
• Iran's warning: The IRGC called the Bahrain operation a serious warning against aerial provocations and alleged oil smuggling through the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian security chief Mohsen Rezaei also warned that military bases involved in a renewed conflict could become targets.
• US position: US Central Command continues to enforce a naval blockade on Iranian ports while maintaining a southern corridor for commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has said economic pressure on Iran is working without the need for large-scale military operations.
• Regional escalation risks: President Donald Trump has indicated a preference for avoiding renewed large-scale conflict but has not ruled out military action if diplomacy fails. Israeli media have also reported increased military preparations for a possible attack on Iran.

Key takeaway: Iran's claimed strike on a US radar installation in Bahrain raises the risk of further escalation across the Gulf, particularly around US military assets and the strategically important Strait of Hormuz. The reported destruction remains unconfirmed by the US and Bahrain.

BREAKING: Iran's IRGC Claims Strike on US Early Warning Radar in Bahrain bigbreakingwire.in

India's Manufacturing Incentive Programme Achieves Just 28% of Its Job Creation Target

• India's flagship Production-Linked Incentive (PLI) programme is falling significantly short of its employment goals, despite making stronger progress on investment and production, according to an assessment by government think tank NITI Aayog.
• The schemes, covering 14 sectors including mobile phones, textiles and automobile components, have achieved:
  • 76% of their investment target.
  • 64% of their production target.
  • Just 28% of their employment target.
• The findings highlight the challenge of converting manufacturing investments and expanded production capacity into jobs for India's large and growing workforce.
• The government has committed billions of dollars in incentives to attract manufacturers, strengthen domestic supply chains and establish India as a global manufacturing hub. Companies such as Apple and Samsung have benefited from the programme.
• However, NITI Aayog cautioned against treating the employment gap as evidence of programme failure, noting that investment and production generally precede hiring.
• With 42% of the combined implementation period still remaining, the think tank said employment generation could accelerate as manufacturing facilities become fully operational.
• The assessment also called for closer scrutiny of schemes that have achieved less than half of their respective targets.
• India's employment challenge remains significant. Official data put unemployment among people aged 15–29 at around 10% in 2025.
• Estimates from Azim Premji University indicate that nearly 40% of graduates aged 15–25 are unemployed, while the figure is around one-fifth among those aged 25–29.

Key takeaway: India's PLI programme is attracting investment and boosting manufacturing output, but job creation remains a major weakness as the country struggles to generate enough employment for its young population.

IEA Warns Global Oil Market Could Return to Supply Glut in Q4 as Gulf Exports Recover

• The International Energy Agency (IEA) said the global oil market is expected to return to a supply surplus in the fourth quarter of 2026 as Middle Eastern exports recover faster than demand.
• Global oil supply is projected to average 105 million barrels per day (bpd) in Q4, exceeding expected demand by 1.7 million bpd.
• The agency had previously forecast a supply shortage for the quarter. It said global supply is now exceeding demand for the first time since the start of the war with Iran.
• The recovery in Gulf exports is continuing despite ongoing attacks on shipping.

Russian Oil Production and Exports Rebound

• Russia's crude oil production increased by 210,000 bpd in October to 8.73 million bpd, according to the IEA.
• Russian petroleum product exports rose by 260,000 bpd to 1.49 million bpd, the highest level since June.
• Diesel and gasoil shipments doubled to 270,000 bpd.
• Russia partially eased diesel export restrictions on October 10 following an agreement between President Vladimir Putin and US President Donald Trump to increase supplies to global markets.
• Russian diesel and gasoil loadings reached 1.13 million metric tonnes in October, according to Kpler data cited by the IEA, exceeding the reported 300,000-tonne commitment.
• Turkey received approximately 240,000 tonnes, while Brazil received 160,000 tonnes.
• No Russian diesel shipments have yet arrived in the United States.

Key takeaway: Recovering Middle Eastern exports and rising Russian oil supplies are changing the global market outlook, with the IEA now expecting a substantial supply surplus in Q4.

Microsoft 365 Outage Continues Into Friday, Disrupting Outlook, Teams and Copilot Worldwide

• Microsoft's global Microsoft 365 outage, which began around midday on Thursday, November 12, remained unresolved early Friday, with the company yet to provide a timeline for full recovery.
• The disruption affected Outlook, Teams, Microsoft 365 Copilot, SharePoint, Exchange Online and other services, preventing users from accessing emails, inboxes, files and calendars.
• Outlook problem reports peaked at nearly 140,000 globally around 18:00 GMT on Thursday, according to Downdetector data cited by the BBC.
• Microsoft said several servers had become unexpectedly unavailable, placing additional pressure on the remaining infrastructure.
• The company identified an overwhelmed process responsible for establishing secure connections on affected servers, causing them to stop processing requests.
• Microsoft paused deployments, restarted servers and began reversing a network settings change that may have contributed to the disruption.
• Recovery has been uneven. Microsoft warned that some servers restored to service could become unresponsive again when they receive traffic.
• Teams messaging and online meetings largely continued working, although some users experienced problems accessing files and calendar information.
• The outage also disrupted connectors linking OpenAI's ChatGPT and Anthropic's Claude to Microsoft 365 data.
• Government offices and businesses were affected, including federal agencies and offices on Capitol Hill in the US.
• Electric truck manufacturer Workhorse Group postponed its third-quarter earnings report to November 16, citing the outage.
• Microsoft has not indicated that the disruption was caused by a cyberattack.

Key takeaway: The prolonged outage highlights the dependence of businesses and government institutions on Microsoft's cloud infrastructure, with recovery still uncertain more than 12 hours after the disruption began.

Delhi AQI Crosses 400 as 33 Monitoring Stations Record Severe Air Quality

• Delhi's average Air Quality Index (AQI) crossed 400 on Friday morning, entering the severe category, as pollution levels worsened across the capital.
• According to CPCB data, 33 of Delhi's 58 monitoring stations recorded severe air quality readings.
• IIT Delhi recorded the highest AQI at 487 at 6 am, followed by Chandni Chowk and Delhi University's North Campus at 476 each. Pusa recorded 468.
• Pollution levels were also elevated across neighbouring NCR cities. At 5 am, Ghaziabad recorded an AQI of 377, Noida 369 and Gurugram 349.
• Some locations reported even higher readings, with Noida's Sector 62 at 472 and Gurugram's Gwal Pahari at 445.
• GRAP Stage III restrictions remain in force across Delhi-NCR. Schools in Noida, Greater Noida and Ghaziabad have shifted classes up to Class V to hybrid mode.
• Construction and demolition activities have been suspended in Ghaziabad until November 20. Gautam Buddh Nagar authorities have also directed strict enforcement of construction restrictions.
• The India Meteorological Department expects air quality to remain in the very poor to severe range until November 16.
• Children and elderly people have been advised to remain indoors, as severe air pollution can affect even healthy individuals and worsen existing respiratory conditions.

Key takeaway: Delhi-NCR is facing another severe pollution spell, with widespread high AQI readings and restrictions continuing as authorities prepare for several more days of poor air quality.

Adani Green Faces Scrutiny Over 99% Cost Reduction in Maharashtra Pumped Storage Project

• Adani Green Energy's Tarali Pumped Storage Project in Maharashtra is facing scrutiny after the company reportedly revised its estimated project cost from ₹5,675 crore to ₹56.75 crore, a reduction of 99%.
• The project covers 150.74 hectares of non-forest land in Patan taluka, Satara district, and falls within the deemed eco-sensitive zone of Koyna Wildlife Sanctuary, part of the Sahyadri Tiger Reserve.
• The revised estimate was submitted through a notarised affidavit by Adani Green COO Naresh Telgu on September 8, 2026. The company said the earlier figure was based on an analogous estimation.
• In February 2026, the State Board for Wildlife had required a deposit equivalent to 4% of the project cost. Following acceptance of the revised estimate by Maharashtra's chief wildlife warden on October 12, the wildlife deposit was reduced to ₹2.27 crore.
• Adani Green has paid ₹56.75 lakh, with the remaining ₹1.7075 crore due after approval from the National Board for Wildlife.
• The matter came under scrutiny after Satara honorary wildlife warden Rohan Bhate filed a complaint on October 30.
• On November 6, the Union Environment Ministry asked Maharashtra to investigate the matter as a priority. The deputy director of Koyna Wildlife Sanctuary was also asked to examine it.
• Congress general secretary Jairam Ramesh called the matter a “scandal of gigantic proportions” and renewed the party's demand for a Joint Parliamentary Committee (JPC) investigation.
• The Adani Group said the project is located on private land, does not involve forest land and will not harm downstream ecology. However, its spokesperson did not address the revised project cost.

Key takeaway: The nearly 99% reduction in the declared project cost has sharply lowered the wildlife deposit, prompting scrutiny from environmental authorities and political opposition. The allegations remain subject to investigation.