BlackRock CEO Larry Fink Warns: U.S. May Already Be in Recession, Markets Could Drop 20% More

U.S. Economy Weakening, Says BlackRock’s Larry Fink

Larry Fink, the CEO of BlackRock—the world’s largest asset management company—recently gave a cautionary outlook on the U.S. economy. Speaking at the Economic Club of New York, Fink said the economy is showing clear signs of weakness and may already be in a recession.

> “Most CEOs I talk to would say we are probably in a recession right now,” he said.
“The U.S. economy is weakening as we speak.”

Stock Market Could Fall Another 20%, Fink Warns

Fink also warned that the stock market could still drop by another 20%. Many stocks have already seen big losses since January, with some falling more than 30% to 40%. However, he believes these declines may present long-term investment opportunities.

> “In the long run, this is more of a buying opportunity,” Fink explained.
“That doesn’t mean we can’t drop another 20% from here too, but I do believe the vitality of the United States will persist over time.”

Rising Fears of Recession and Tariffs Fuel Uncertainty

The warning from Fink comes amid growing economic fears triggered by President Trump’s aggressive tariff policies. Several high-profile financial leaders have expressed concerns over the global impact of the U.S. trade strategy.

Jamie Dimon’s Warning on Inflation and Growth

JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon, in his annual shareholder letter, said the new tariffs could lead to short-term inflation and slower economic growth.

> “Whether these measures will cause a full-blown recession remains in question,” Dimon wrote.

Investors Call for Delay in Tariffs

Billionaire investor Bill Ackman urged President Trump to delay the tariffs by 90 days. He shared on X:

> “I strongly believe launching tariffs on April 9th against the entire world — massively in excess of what we are being charged — is a mistake.”

Stanley Druckenmiller Opposes High Tariffs

Fellow billionaire Stanley Druckenmiller also spoke out on X, opposing tariffs above 10%. A known Republican, he previously worked alongside current Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent at George Soros’s hedge fund.

China Responds Strongly to U.S. Tariff Actions

New Chinese Tariffs Begin April 10, 2025

In response to the U.S. actions, China announced that it will impose new tariffs and export restrictions on American goods starting April 10, 2025. These measures are expected to hit global trade, especially in sectors like technology and rare earth materials.

China Accuses U.S. of Economic Bullying

China’s Foreign Ministry called the U.S. tariffs a one-sided move and an example of economic bullying. They warned that if the U.S. continues pushing a tariff war, China is ready to fight until the end.

> “The U.S. actions do not show genuine interest in serious talks,” said a Chinese spokesperson.
“If America wants to negotiate, it must do so with respect.”

U.S. Officials Seek to Calm Market Fears

Treasury Secretary Urges Balanced Trade Approach

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent flew to Florida to advise President Trump to calm the markets by focusing on trade talks. He emphasized that without a clear tariff strategy, market instability would continue.

Bessent recommended that the administration explain the purpose of tariffs clearly—to achieve better trade deals and create jobs in the U.S.

> “We must show that we are open to negotiation, especially with allies like Japan,” Bessent said.

Recession Odds Rise: What Banks Are Saying

Goldman Sachs Raises Recession Risk to 45%

Goldman Sachs now sees a 45% chance of a U.S. recession within the next 12 months, up from 35%. They cite increasing uncertainty, financial tightening, and the threat of a trade war as major risks to growth.

J.P. Morgan Predicts 60% Global Recession Risk

JPMorgan is even more cautious, projecting a 60% chance of a recession in both the U.S. and global markets. Just a month ago, Goldman Sachs had already increased its recession forecast from 20% to 35%.

Final Thoughts: A Time for Caution, But Also Opportunity?

While the short-term outlook appears uncertain, Larry Fink and other market leaders believe that long-term investors may find value in the current market. Still, risks remain high due to global trade tensions, inflation, and weak economic indicators.

Investors should stay informed, diversify their portfolios, and consider both risks and opportunities in this evolving landscape.