UBS on Tesla ($TSLA) – Sell; Price Target: $197
UBS thinks that Tesla’s recent event, “We, Robot,” might not meet the high expectations many had. Elon Musk shared his vision for self-driving cars, but there weren’t many specific details or clear timelines. The company did not reveal the anticipated Model 2.5, which UBS believes is crucial for their estimates for 2025 and 2026.
Key Points:
Cybercab: This is a two-seat vehicle with no steering wheel or pedals, expected to start production in 2026 for under $30,000. It will include hardware for self-driving and wireless charging, but its specifications and legal status are unclear.
FSD Updates: Musk believes that fully self-driving (FSD) capabilities will be available without supervision next year in Texas and California for Model 3 and Model Y cars, depending on regulatory approval.
Cost Projections: The costs for using the Cybercab are estimated to be between $0.20 and $0.40 per mile, with plans to sell fleets to service providers.
Robovan: Tesla introduced a vehicle that can carry up to 20 people, but there were few details or timelines provided.
Optimus Robot: Tesla showcased progress on a humanoid robot, with a future price expected to be between $20,000 and $30,000.
Overall, UBS found the Cybercab experience disappointing, as it struggled with basic tasks during testing. They believe the developments announced are further away than originally suggested, leading to lower enthusiasm in the near term.
Morgan Stanley on Tesla ($TSLA) (Overweight; Price Target $310):
Following Tesla’s “We, Robot” event, we were disappointed by the lack of important details that could have strengthened Tesla’s AI story.
We were hoping for updates on how quickly the Full Self-Driving (FSD) system is improving, plans for an autonomous ridesharing service, and more information about Tesla’s partnership with xAI.
Although there were some closed-course test drives of autonomous “cybercabs” and updates on the Optimus project, the overall presentation didn’t provide the detailed information we were expecting. We believe the stock may come under pressure after this event.
RBC Capital on Tesla ($TSLA) – Outperform; Price Target: $236
RBC Capital viewed Tesla’s event as largely in line with their expectations. A key point was Tesla’s willingness to sell its robotaxis to fleet operators, which they had previously anticipated.
Key Points:
Investors noted that the event lacked specific numbers and timelines, focusing more on promoting Tesla’s vision rather than providing solid data for analysis.
The new vehicle without steering wheels or pedals is planned for production in 2026, with FSD expected to be available next year in California and Texas for certain models.
Tesla estimates that the robotaxi will cost under $30,000 with operational costs of $0.30 to $0.40 per mile, while RBC’s analysis predicted a $35,000 vehicle costing $0.81 per mile.
Musk’s comments about selling robotaxis suggest a potential change from Tesla managing everything to a more open approach.
RBC expects Tesla’s stock may drop by 5% if it meets expectations or 10% if investors are disappointed. However, they remain positive about Tesla’s long-term potential, particularly in the robotaxi and humanoid robot markets.
Wells Fargo on Affirm ($AFRM) – Upgraded to Overweight; Price Target: $52
Wells Fargo has upgraded Affirm because it is gaining a larger share of the e-commerce market.
Key Points:
They foresee the company becoming profitable according to GAAP standards, making it more appealing for investment. Affirm is now viewed as a strong long-term investment.
Morgan Stanley on Atlassian ($TEAM) – Overweight; Price Target: $224
Morgan Stanley has raised its price target for Atlassian, calling it a “Top Pick” despite a disappointing sales forecast for fiscal 2025.
Key Points:
They believe there is a significant growth opportunity from Atlassian’s range of products and that reduced risks in estimates could lead to higher stock prices for long-term investors.
Wells Fargo on AMD ($AMD) – Overweight; Price Target: $205
Wells Fargo discussed AMD’s new fifth-generation EPYC Turin server CPUs, highlighting their impressive specifications.
Key Points:
These CPUs have a massive 150 billion transistors and show a 17% improvement in performance compared to previous generations. The 192-core version is designed for cloud and scalable workloads.
AMD claimed that customers could replace many Intel servers with just a few of their new servers, resulting in lower power use and costs.
Oppenheimer on AMD ($AMD)
Oppenheimer found AMD’s recent AI day event to be rather uneventful, as most of the information shared was already known.
Key Points:
Investors expected about $10 billion in revenue from AMD’s AI products in 2025, but Oppenheimer believes actual sales could be closer to $8 billion. They remain cautious about investing in AMD as its AI vision evolves.
Goldman Sachs on NVIDIA ($NVDA) – Price Target Raised to $150 from $135; Conviction Buy
Goldman Sachs increased its price target for NVIDIA after meeting with key company executives.
Key Points:
They gained a better understanding of NVIDIA’s competitive edge and the growing demand for complex computing in AI.
They also raised revenue and earnings estimates for fiscal years 2026 and 2027 due to positive industry trends and robust demand, reiterating a strong buy rating for NVIDIA.
CITI on Uber ($UBER) – Price Target: $100
Citi analyzed Tesla’s robotaxi event and its implications for Uber.
Key Points:
They view the Cybercab and Tesla’s plans for self-driving technology as a best-case scenario for Uber, as Tesla did not provide firm evidence of progress towards full autonomy.
Citi expects this news will benefit Uber, allowing investors to concentrate on the company’s core performance.
JPMorgan has upgraded Ferrari’s stock rating to “Overweight” and raised the price target to $525 after discussions with CEO Benedetto Vigna and Investor Relations Manager Aldo Benetti. The analysts highlighted strong factors for investors, particularly the company’s impressive earnings growth potential amid increasing economic and political uncertainties. They believe that Ferrari will be less affected by the slowdown in China, which is impacting other luxury car brands.
CEO Vigna’s careful approach to managing production growth in response to high demand has resulted in record pricing and a substantial backlog of orders. Currently, customers face wait times of about 24 to 30 months for their vehicles, providing strong visibility into future earnings.
Additionally, Ferrari’s strategy to shift shipments from weaker markets, like China, to more robust regions supports its healthy profit margins. The company is also set to launch a new Supercar and a battery electric vehicle, both of which are expected to drive further growth.
JPMorgan’s new price target of $525 for December 2025 is based on applying a multiple of 27.5 times their estimated earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) of €3,085 million for 2026. This marks an increase from their previous price target of $385. The report was prepared by analyst Ryan Brinkman.
Key Highlights
Upgrades – October 11, 2024
Affirm Holdings ($AFRM): Wells Fargo has raised its rating from Equal Weight to Overweight, with a new price target of $52, up from $40.
Kinder Morgan ($KMI): BofA Securities upgraded its rating from Neutral to Buy, increasing the price target to $27 from $23.
Ferrari ($RACE): JPMorgan upgraded its rating from Neutral to Overweight, setting a new price target of $525, up from $385.
Downgrades – October 11, 2024
ACDC ($ACDC): Stifel downgraded its rating from Buy to Hold, with a price target of $7.
Altamira Therapeutics ($ALTM): KeyBanc downgraded its rating from Overweight to Sector Weight.
Flywire ($FLYW): Wells Fargo downgraded its rating from Overweight to Equal Weight, lowering the price target to $18 from $20.
General Dynamics ($GD): Seaport Research downgraded its rating from Buy to Neutral.
General Motors ($GM): DZ Bank downgraded its rating from Buy to Hold, with a new price target of $49.
Mobileye ($MBLY): Mizuho downgraded its rating from Outperform to Neutral, reducing the price target to $13 from $30.
Napa ($NAPA): RBC Capital downgraded its rating from Outperform to Sector Perform, with a price target of $11.10, up from $11.
SQM ($SQM): JPMorgan downgraded its rating from Overweight to Neutral, lowering the price target to $44 from $55.
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