Experts Predict Growing Odds of U.S. Recession in 2025

There are varying predictions about the chances of a U.S. recession in 2025, with experts estimating a roughly 40% probability. Kalshi, J.P. Morgan, and others like Moody’s and Pimco suggest around 35-40%, while Larry Summers sees it at 50%. Goldman Sachs, however, gives it a lower chance of 20%. This growing uncertainty is driven by factors such as President Trump’s tariffs, a decline in consumer confidence, and lower GDP growth forecasts. Key events to watch include the April 2 tariff deadline, upcoming jobs reports, and trends in consumer spending. The future of the economy will largely depend on policy decisions made in the coming months.