China’s trade sector gained strong momentum in June 2025, supported by a pause in tariff tensions between the United States and China. This break helped both exports and imports grow faster than expected, resulting in a large trade surplus.
Exports and Imports Rebound in June
According to HSBC Global Research, China’s exports rose by 5.8% in June compared to the same month last year. At the same time, imports increased by 1.1%, marking their first growth since February.
This improvement led to a trade surplus of $114.77 billion in June, surprising analysts and boosting market confidence.
How the Tariff Pause Helped
The temporary halt in new tariffs between the U.S. and China gave businesses more breathing space. Without additional costs or restrictions, Chinese exporters were able to ship more goods globally, and importers resumed international purchases.
This easing of trade rules brought immediate relief to both manufacturers and consumers.
Analysts Remain Cautious
Despite the positive trade numbers, experts from HSBC Global Research remain cautious. They noted that the overall global trade environment remains uncertain.
There is no guarantee that the current tariff pause will last. New trade restrictions could still emerge in the coming months, either from the U.S. or other trading partners.
Signs of Recovery in 2025
The June 2025 trade figures show that China’s economy is bouncing back, especially in global trade. Export growth reflects rising demand for Chinese goods, while the increase in imports signals stronger domestic demand.
It’s a positive sign for manufacturers and traders, even though future risks remain.
China Boosts Exports by Using Alternate Routes, Says Barclays
China’s exports increased by 5.8% in June compared to the same month last year, up from a 4.8% rise in May, according to analysts at Barclays. They say this growth shows that China is finding new ways to ship goods overseas, especially by sending products through other countries before they reach their final destinations. With the U.S. currently holding off on raising tariffs, this strategy is helping exports grow. Vietnam is playing a key role in this process, as its exports to the U.S. closely match its imports from China—suggesting it’s being used as a middle stop for Chinese goods.
China’s Export Boom May Be Short-Lived, Says Nomura
China’s exports ended the first half of the year on a high note, but Nomura analysts say this growth was mainly due to companies rushing to ship goods before new U.S. tariffs take effect. With tariffs still high and limited chances for more early exports, demand from the U.S. is expected to slow down. China’s strategy of sending goods indirectly through other countries may also become less effective, as those nations now focus on strengthening trade ties with the U.S.
At the same time, China’s export options are shrinking due to rising tensions with the European Union and the recent removal of a U.S. rule that allowed small packages to enter without duty. On the domestic front, challenges like too much production capacity and a weak property market are adding pressure. Together, these global and local issues could lead to a sharp decline in China’s export momentum in the coming months.
Conclusion
China’s strong trade performance in June 2025 offers short-term relief after months of slowdown. The pause in tariff tensions helped the economy breathe, but experts warn that trade policies could shift again.
For now, the numbers look good — but businesses should stay alert as the global trade landscape continues to evolve.
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