Some events define the course of history. The American elections on November 5th 2024 leading to victory of President elect Donald Trump could be one of the most significant moments of the decade. In my book “The Great Reset” (2022) in its introduction, I had explained how trade wars have defined history and have always led to military wars. I still remember on 21st January 2017 President Donald Trump declared “America First” in his first speech from the Capitol Hill building. On hearing that, my first reaction was to mark this date as a seminal one in history after the 9/11 WTC attacks. The sense of my tweet was that the elite establishment has declared war on the current global order and this will add chaos globally, ultimately leading to military war and a great reset. That is exactly what I had opined in the introductory part of my book in 2022.
The Coming of Trump 2.0: Battle for America’s Soul
Ever since the 2016 elections, where Hillary Clinton lost in a close election to Donald Trump amid allegations of Russian interference, the American policy and society have been bitterly divided. Mass protests erupted, followed by President Donald Trump unleashing a trade war against China and Europe with trade tariffs and protectionist policies under the banner of “America First.” The ‘America First’ policy is essentially a fight between American nationalism and British (Anglo-American) free trade radicals. I have captured the backstory of this in my article on the ‘American Civil War’ Part 1 & Part 2, from which I am quoting a few paragraphs as below:
“The American Civil was a geo-economic tug of war between the American nationalists led by Abraham Lincoln in the Republican Party and the British agents in the American political system across parties that sought to convert America into an appendage of the British banking oligarchical elite.”
“Thus, the American Civil War was nothing but a tug of war between American Nationalists & British Agents/Banking Oligarchs, i.e. the American System vs the British System of Free Trade. This fight of free trade radicals serving the interest of the Anglo-American Establishment vs American interests per se still continues. The Trumpian GOP is, in a way, symptomatic of that tussle; however, the level of control the deep state has over American banking & debt is far higher now. The underwriting of the American empire born of war & peace study post 1945-48 resulted in the Bretton Woods conference leading to the establishment of the IMF, World Bank, and US $ as Reserve Currency, which went through various transformations from a gold-backed one to a Petro Dollar one under Nixon.”
“I have explained this #PaxAmericana in my book #TheGreatReset (2022)! In effect, the American empire today & Dollar hegemony is underwritten by trade deficits. If America were to undo that as Trump wanted, it would destroy its Dollar Hegemony and, along with it, destroy the American Empire. The conflict is thus between American nationalists who are ready to forsake the American empire in favor of a great industrialized nation as Lincoln had imagined. On the other side are globalists who prefer an indebted America with its military & NATO serving the military of the Oligarchs.”
“The British Banking Oligarchs took gradual control over American banking & financial system, but the Russian Empire was still out of their bounds. They made the Russian Empire a target of European Aristocracy, in the Russo-Japanese war, which is also called the Bankers’ War. They inflicted a humiliating defeat on the Russian Empire, which crippled it. Then came the Bolshevik Revolution, sponsored by the same Wall Street elite. Many Bolsheviks sailed from New York into Europe and onwards into Russia, wherein the Russian Empire was ultimately taken down, with the Russian royal family of the Czar and his family being brutally massacred. The Communist-backed Soviet Russia was born.”
How the Communist ideology was abetted by Wall Street (British American Oligarchy) in Russia and even China is a known facet which we covered in detail in our book #TheNewGlobalOrder (2016)! The United States, even since, has been under the thumb of this Oligarchy! While Russia, after suffering for decades under Communism and Yeltsin, is seeking to revive its old empirical glory under Vladimir Putin. On the other hand, the Trumpian GOP is now essentially a revolt against this Oligarchical elite based in New York & run from London.
However, as I stated earlier, neither of the countries now stand independent enough to foist a global order. America is deeply indebted to the British American oligarchy and its financial system, the Russians are degraded by sanctions & perpetual war in Ukraine. The Chinese, on the other hand, are equally not ready yet to foist their global order. Their economy is linked at the hip with the American empire. So in sum & substance; the Wall Street (British American Oligarchy) will hit the reset button. This global order has to wind down, it has now too many suitors. Who better than the Manchurian Candidate ‘TRUMP’! Yes, wind down American trade deficits with America First and dethrone the US Dollar, creating chaos & seeding conflicts across the world.
Thus, the fight between American nationalists in the Republican party with America First and free trade globalists is, in essence, the battle for the soul of America. The American nationalists believe in restoring the greatness of America as a manufacturing giant that is self-sufficient in resources. The base of American nationalism backing President Trump is conservative Christian whites and evangelicals who believe their America is being taken over by hoards of illegal immigrants from the southern border, they subscribe to orthodox Christian values which are pro-life and anti-abortion. The conservative base abhors the neo-liberal cults of Wokeism, Cultural Marxists who have captured American universities and feel they are a threat to orthodox family values.
The American nationalism of America First, along with conservative ideology, also detests the free trade globalists who they believe have gotten America into free trade agreements that have destroyed and de-industrialized America’s manufacturing prowess, leading to massive outsourcing of production lines. The shifting of American manufacturing to China, Southeast Asia, and other parts of the world, along with high inflation and peak interest rates over the last few years since Covid-19, meant that the era of cheap money, where American consumers could happily binge on, is over. The resultant job losses and tightening of monetary policy by the US Federal Reserve further fueled this sentiment of disenchantment with the establishment elite in Washington DC, making people believe that the system is broken and not working for the average American.
The average American felt helpless on the margins of society, unable to pay his mortgages, student loans, gasoline, and grocery bills, increasing his overall cost of living, with inflation hitting American businesses hard. As the saying goes, “It’s the economy, stupid”! The American nationalists, trumpeted by Donald Trump and the Republican Party, launched a sophisticated, clinical campaign with the aid of Silicon Valley technocrats who amplified the message for the average American that we shall drain the swamp, fix the system, i.e., federal bureaucracy, and dismantle the deep state. The messaging resonated very well with the people. President Trump also built a coalition with Ohio senator JD Vance as his running mate (VP), Hawaiian Hindu leader Tulsi Gabbard, Robert Kennedy Jr. who crisscrossed America from coast to coast to spread the message of “Make America Great Again” by placing America First at the top.
However, as I always say, never believe a message from a politician, especially the ones in today’s America who are backed by Silicon Valley technocrats. Let us now aim to skim through the backers of the Trump campaign and what agenda they bring to the fore. The Trump campaign was ably funded by business tycoons from Silicon Valley like Elon Musk and venture capitalists like Peter Thiel. Peter Thiel, when he was a student at Stanford University, was deeply influenced by Rene Girard. Girard had pointed out that human competitive behavior was holding scientific and technological progress back. Peter Thiel adopted that view that corporate monopolies are indeed a good thing and that society can be shaped with technological progress, which does not need democratic approval. In his view, rather, democracies were a hindrance to the development of humankind. Peter Thiel’s thought process was visible at Libertopia, 2010, where he said as follows:
“The initial founding vision was that we were going to use technology to change the whole world and basically overturn the monetary system of the world… We could never win an election on getting certain things because we were in such a small minority, but maybe you could unilaterally change the world without having to constantly convince people and beg people and plead with people who are never going to agree with you through technological means, and this is where I think technology is this incredible alternative to politics.”
Peter joined up with a few young engineers building a new way to send payment digitally, pretty revolutionary in the late 90s. The company started as ‘Confinity,’ a play on “infinite confidence.” It briefly became x.com, as his partner Elon Musk insisted, but it eventually became PayPal. In a PayPal all-hands meeting in 2001, Thiel told the full staff, “The ability to move money fluidly and the erosion of the nation-state are closely related,” as they were building a system to move money fluidly. But just a few months later, PayPal went public with an IPO just after 9/11. His next company was Palantir, a surveillance and data tech outfit where the funding came from In-Q-Tel, a non-profit venture capital firm dedicated to funding projects that would be helpful to the CIA. The firm isn’t officially run by the CIA, but there is a revolving door of staff between the two, and the firm is colloquially referred to as “the CIA’s private equity firm.” Palantir eventually did help the CIA, the FBI, the CDC, and a host of other governmental organizations.
Peter Thiel also backed 2022 Republican Senate candidate JD Vance in Ohio, who is now the vice president-elect of the USA. I have written in detail about it in my previous post on the connection between Donald Trump, JD Vance, Peter Thiel, and the Deep State. Peter Thiel is one of the cogs in the wheel of the new Republican Party under Donald Trump, along with billionaire Elon Musk, who took over Twitter (now X) and has worked with the Pentagon in deploying Starlink in Ukraine and SpaceX collaboration with NASA. Jelmer Ossterloo, in his blog, quotes as follows “The New Republican Party” (11th November 2024):
“Thiel has been instrumental in cultivating like-minded figures within the Republican Party. One of his most significant recruits is J.D. Vance, the author of Hillbilly Elegy, who went from being a Trump critic to one of his strongest Senate allies. Thiel’s backing was pivotal in Vance’s Senate campaign in Ohio, and their partnership is long-standing; Vance previously worked at Thiel’s investment firm, Mithril Capital. Together, they’ve helped reorient the GOP’s messaging to embrace a techno-libertarian philosophy that blends Trump’s populism with a deep skepticism of government overreach, emphasizing the power of technology and the dangers of bureaucratic stagnation. Thiel’s influence marked a turning point, signaling that Silicon Valley was no longer an exclusively liberal stronghold.”
“Adding to this lineup is Vivek Ramaswamy, a biotech entrepreneur and another rising star of the GOP who brings Silicon Valley’s anti-regulatory fervor to the party. Like Thiel, Ramaswamy is a staunch critic of ‘woke’ culture and has actively spoken against what he sees as radical leftist propaganda. His entry has solidified the GOP’s embrace of a new brand of conservatism that champions free markets, regulatory rollbacks, and a cultural counter-movement against wokeism, DEI, and gender ideology.”
“With Elon Musk throwing his full weight behind Trump and the GOP a couple of months ago, the party has definitively set out on a new course. Musk’s support was pivotal in getting Trump re-elected to the White House. The world’s richest man has large ambitions to reform the Federal Government and will most likely lead a ‘Department of Government Efficiency’ to slash spending and cut the government workforce.”
“The coalition of Trump, Thiel, Vance, Ramaswamy, and Musk marks a seismic ideological shift. Today’s Republican Party is infused with a techno-libertarian ethos that prizes individual freedom, technological progress, and a skepticism of entrenched institutions. They share a strong aversion to ‘woke’ culture, which they view as a restrictive ideology that hinders free expression and innovation. This shift represents a dramatic departure from the GOP of previous generations, which was rooted in social conservatism and business pragmatism. Instead, the new GOP is open to bold, untested ideas, inspired by Silicon Valley’s most disruptive thinkers.”
The connections of Peter Thiel and Musk signify the hold of Silicon Valley over the Trump Administration and its deep state connections with the CIA, Pentagon, and NASA, without the support of which neither Thiel’s Palantir nor Musk’s endeavors would have succeeded. The whole agenda of Silicon Valley czars who are in effect running the transition team on Trump cabinet appointees is to shape the American democracy in a Techno-Libertarian utopia, which fuses techno-liberationism of Silicon Valley along with Trump’s populism. This is a challenge to long-standing accepted political culture in Washington DC and seeks to adopt a radical new approach to governance, which advocates for technological advances, trimming bureaucracy, and disrupting traditional power structures of American politics.
Impact of Trump 2.0 on India & the World:
It is in this context one must understand what Trump 2.0 brings to the table on America’s economic issues, which will have a significant impact on India and the world at large. President-elect Donald Trump has promised a wide range of economic measures to boost the American economy, the foremost of it being trimming the bureaucracy with a unit called DOGE (Department of Governmental Efficiency), which will aim to reduce the expenditure of the US Government by about 2 trillion dollars. The said department is to be headed by Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy. One of the prominent promises of the Trump campaign was to streamline bureaucracy, which does not align with the new GOP agenda, implement digital solutions to cut bureaucratic slag like a UID, Digital Transfers of Government grants and subsidies, which bypass the typical bureaucratic slippages and make economies of scale for the American government. We have seen a similar model being implemented in India by Aadhaar (UID) biometric database interlinking with bank accounts, PAN Card, and mobile interface, i.e., JAM for smooth transfer of government benefits.
However, Trump 2.0 faces a daunting task ahead, given the fact that President Trump has promised to cut corporate tax rates as promised and give tax relief to the middle class. These measures will boost corporate profits estimated by 4% and could also boost consumer spending, leading to an increase in demand. This increase in demand, coupled with the fact that the Federal Reserve is cutting rates and injecting more liquidity into the market, would further accelerate inflation, which would mean that the FED would either have to stop cutting rates or revert back to quantitative tightening, which would mean going back to square one.
The second issue Trump’s administration would have to grapple with is inflation. While gasoline and oil prices can be contained by pumping local oil & gas, the food inflation, grocery, mortgages, home, and student loans would continue to grapple the American middle class. Thirdly, the Trump Administration has promised to rebuild America’s infrastructure by about 1 trillion dollars in spending, but the tax cuts as promised would lead to a revenue deficit, and that would mean that the American government would have to look towards binging on more debt, deficit financing to finance this. It must be noted here that a significant percentage of American GDP goes into servicing that trillion dollars of debt that could overheat the American economy by the time President Trump leaves office in 2029.
While this may sound as an American concern, in an interconnected world, the decisions that Trump 2.0 takes will have a significant impact on global economics & trade. Donald Trump, as I call him the “Tariff King,” has vowed to impose 10-20% tariffs across the globe and nearly 60% tariffs on Chinese products. In Trump 1.0, between 2017-2021, President Trump had initiated a trade war with China, imposing tariffs of up to 30% on Chinese goods, which saw a similar Chinese retaliation and even an adversarial response from Europe. He even threatened tariffs on India. The imposition of tariffs has various effects: firstly, it increases the price of goods for American consumers; secondly, retaliatory tariffs induce protectionism, disrupting global trade, adding more inflationary pressure. The Trump team, from Marco Rubio as Secretary of State to Robert Lighthizer as Trade Secretary, are known China hawks.
The Chinese, very well anticipating the re-election of Donald Trump 2.0 and the likelihood of Trump tariffs, boosted its sagging economy with trillions of yuan worth of economic stimulus and in the future might even devalue the Yuan to make Chinese imports cheaper to the United States. These actions could invite the wrath of the American president who, after his inauguration in January 2025, could impose tariffs on China, the German automotive industry alike, seeding disruption and chaos in the global economy. The Chinese could then very well take America to the WTO for this unilateralism, and Trump in response could threaten to pull out of the WTO. The coming of Trump 2.0 is considered one of the probable reasons why China sought disengagement with India in Eastern Ladakh, returning back to the old status quo pre-April 2020. This breakthrough between two neighbors underscores the Chinese concern of not losing access to the Indian market for its sagging economy, with uncertainty of Trump tariffs looming large on the horizon.
Knowing President Trump’s ace negotiating skills, it is possible that he could impose some tariffs on China and then negotiate from a position of strength, asking Chinese companies to invest and set up factories in non-critical sectors in the USA, generating employment—something which he could market or sell to his base at home, saying, “Look, I am bringing the jobs back.” The tariff war between the USA and China brings a bigger opportunity for India, where it could leverage good Indo-Pacific ties with China hawks in the Trump administration while seeking Chinese investments and trade parity, opening some access and normalization with China in return.
The Trump administration has already signaled that it would not back renewable energy projects and would likely dilute requirements of the IRA (Inflation Reduction Act, 2022) like environmental clearances, cutting federal aid & grants, promoting Made in USA solar module manufacturing while imposing tariffs on Chinese-sourced solar panels and modules. This would create an opportunity for Indian companies to step up. However, given the import of raw materials from China for solar modules, Chinese dumping of its overcapacity in Indian markets via FTA routes of Southeast Asian countries could bring a second-ring effect on Indian solar module manufacturers. Their toplines, margins, and profitability could be severely impacted despite anti-dumping duties imposed on China. A trade war and tariffs war, when initiated, can have multiple ring effects on supply chains across the world. Similar could be the scenario in CDMO Pharma, giving an opportunity for the Indian pharmaceutical sector as the US Congress could pass the Biosecure Act to cut dependence of contract manufacturing by American companies of pharmaceutical products in China.
The Trump 2.0 thus brings opportunities as well as challenges for India. The Trump administration is expected to go soft on Russia, aiming to secure a status quo or a ceasefire on the frontlines in Ukraine, and that would benefit India as India could then engage with Russia on its military upgrades, oil, and gas diplomacy. However, one should expect that when the USA under Trump 2.0 decides to pump more oil and gas, it would ask India to lessen dependence on Russian oil and import more American oil in a bid to offset some part of its trade deficit with India. India is indeed in a sweet spot geopolitically, with American Hindus like Tulsi Gabbard and Vivek Ramaswamy forming the core of the Trump Administration. Tulsi Gabbard has been appointed by President-elect Trump as Director of National Intelligence (DNI), who is the head and oversees all intelligence agencies in the USA, including those wings of the Department of Justice, FBI, CIA, US Air Force, Army, Navy, Secret Service, and even the National Guard.
While American Hindus like Tulsi Gabbard heading the US intelligence department will offer some solace to India, we should be cautious about the Deep State agenda, be it the Bangladesh coup, St. Martin base in the Bay of Bengal, or a Christian state in Northeast India, which has been a long-standing dream of the Anglo-American establishment. The hardcore evangelical base of Trump and the Republican Party might prove to be an irritant in the ties between the two sides. One should be realistic that America’s moves of coups in Pakistan and later in Bangladesh are primarily aimed at countering China and keeping a check on India in the Bay of Bengal. The Trump administration is unlikely to get along with Mohammad Yunus of Bangladesh, who has been associated with the Clinton Foundation in the past; thus, it could very much be possible that the Bangladeshi military moves in swiftly, holding fresh elections soon, giving power back to the political leadership of BNP with Sheikh Hasina in exile in New Delhi. This would provide an opportunity for India to claw back into Bangladesh, hoping for an early restoration of democracy and revival of the Awami League in the near future.
It must be borne in mind that while American and Indian interests converge geopolitically on various issues, be it the Quad, Freedom of Navigation of Seas, Defense and Space partnership, tackling China, and critical rare earth supply lines, there will be issues of divergence as well, where Indian interests could clash with American interests, like military deals with Russia or the oil and port deal with Iran. The Trump administration is expected to be tough on Iran, in sync with Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu, who has vowed to finish Iranian proxies in the Middle East, from Hamas in Gaza to Hezbollah in Lebanon and Shia Militias in Syria/Iraq. The Israelis have already dealt a severe blow to Iranian paramilitary groups in the region, and President Trump is expected to follow suit by ramping up huge oil & trade sanctions on Iran in a bid to curtail its nuclear program. That could provide some concern to India as it operates Chabhar Port in Iran, and unlike the Democrats, the Trump administration may not give a pass allowing it and might threaten secondary sanctions.
As we have read above, the Trump 2.0 will bring significant geopolitical and geo-economic risks for India and the world. These could range from Trade Wars to Tech Wars impacting semiconductor supply lines, tariffs on German and European industries, renegotiation of Trade Pacts, withdrawal from Renewable energy commitments and the Paris accord, sanctioning of Iran, deep state meddling in India and South Asia using actors like Pannu and Nikhil Gupta to extract leverage over military and defense deals with India. Trump 2.0 is all set to disrupt not only American politics but even the global order, and with Silicon Valley czars taking a firm position in the Trump presidency, the American civil society and the world can anticipate drastic changes in the next four years.
However, it goes without saying that history is testament to the fact that whenever “America First” has prevailed along with Trade wars, it has always disrupted the global economy and trade, leading to eventual global conflict. I would end by saying, hold on to your seats tightly as the roller coaster ride with the “Tariff King” as “Manchurian Candidate” in power is all set to begin. Trump 2.0 will further fasten the process of Multi-polarity within Bipolarity, igniting the Cold War 2.0 in the Indo-Pacific and the unwinding of the current global order. May God bless America and the world for what is to come.
Notes:
1. The Great Reset (2022) – Navroop Singh
2. American Civil War: The Battle between American Nationalists and the British Free Trade Radicals – Navroop Singh
3. American Civil War: The Chronology of Conflicts & Deceit – Navroop Singh
4. Peter Thiel: The Billionaire Buying the End of Democracy – https://perfectunion.us/peter-thiel-the-billionaire-buying-the-end-of-democracy/
5. Peter Thiel at Libertopia 2010 – YouTube Video
6. The New Republican Party – Jelmer Ossterloo – Substack 11th November 2024
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